FanDuel Daily Fantasy Basketball Helper: Thursday 11/11/21
If you're new to daily fantasy basketball -- maybe you started your DFS journey during the MLB or NFL seasons, or maybe basketball is your sport and this will be your first year giving it a shot -- you're in for a treat. The NBA scene changes on a week-to-week, day-to-day, and -- depending on injury news -- even a minute-to-minute basis, making every slate a unique one that requires an ever-changing approach.
With so much changing so quickly, we're here with plenty of tools to help you out. We have daily projections, a matchup heat map, a lineup optimizer, and a bunch of other great resources to help give you an edge.
Daily fantasy basketball is very reliant on a player's opportunity, so you'll need to make sure that you're up-to-date with key injuries. Our projections update up until tip-off to reflect current news, we have player news updates, and the FanDuel Scout app will send push notifications for pressing updates regarding your players.
We'll also be coming at you with this primer every day, breaking down a few of the day's top plays at each position.
Let's break down today's main slate on FanDuel.
The Slate
| Team | Opp | Implied Total | Over/Under | Spread | Pace | Opp Pace |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Utah | IND | 113.00 | 216.0 | -10.0 | 98.2 | 98.4 |
| LA Clippers | MIA | 107.75 | 211.5 | -4.0 | 101.1 | 97.2 |
| Philadelphia | TOR | 106.25 | 210.0 | -2.5 | 95.5 | 96.4 |
| Miami | @LAC | 103.75 | 211.5 | +4.0 | 97.2 | 101.1 |
| Toronto | @PHI | 103.75 | 210.0 | +2.5 | 96.4 | 95.5 |
| Indiana | @UTAH | 103.00 | 216.0 | +10.0 | 98.4 | 98.2 |
Guards
Donovan Mitchell ($8,600) and Mike Conley ($6,400) - Mitchell and Conley rate out well in a home matchup against the Indiana Pacers, a team that ranks at the bottom of the list in fantasy points allowed to opposing guards among this slate. The Utah Jazz have a slate-high implied total, as well.
Mitchell ranks with the highest ceiling in my DFS model among all guards (50.9 points), with only Fred VanVleet ($8,100; 50.1) also above 45.0 among guards. Mitchell's 1.26 FanDuel point per minute average should lead to a strong output in the matchup. As for Conley, his per-minute rate is 0.99 FanDuel points.
Kyle Lowry ($6,500) - Lowry's FanDuel point per minute average is just 0.89, but that's viable at such a salary and in a game with a tight 4.0-point spread. The Los Angeles Clippers do rank top-10 against opposing point guards, yet the workload for Lowry has him projected for the best floor value in my model among all guards. Overall, Lowry is numberFire's fourth-best value across all positions.
Others to Consider:
Fred VanVleet ($8,100), Reggie Jackson ($6,300), Malcolm Brogdon ($8,000), Duncan Robinson ($3,900)
Wings
Paul George ($10,300) and Terance Mann ($5,000) - Yes, the Miami Heat generally rate out tough in defensive metrics, but they're only 10th in FanDuel points allowed to shooting guards/small forwards, and they're also slated for regression. George's elite 1.40 FanDuel points per minute rate is leading to a steady 43.9 FanDuel point projection tonight, via numberFire's model. With Jimmy Butler's status up in the air after an ankle sprain in last night's game, George rates out with the lone elite ceiling among wings (56.0).
Terrance Mann also rates out well in that same offense; he's the top salary-adjusted value in my model among wing players. Mann ranks as numberFire's second-best value regardless of position.
Tyler Herro ($6,400) - Herro should slot into a great workload, assuming Butler is out. Herro averages 0.98 FanDuel points per minute on a 27.0% usage rate without Butler on the court this season, via RotoGrinders' CourtIQ tool. Even with Butler projected for his usual workload, Herro is projected for 28.9 FanDuel points across 30.0 minutes. That's good for a 4.51-FanDuel-point-per-salary-dollar value.
Others to Consider:
OG Anunoby ($7,600), Tobias Harris ($7,400), Chris Duarte ($5,100)
Bigs
Scottie Barnes ($6,800) and Precious Achiuwa ($4,900) - With Pascal Siakam out, we can turn to the Toronto Raptors for some salary savings. Barnes is SF/PF eligible, and Achiuwa gets the PF/C tag.
Adjusting the Raptors' usage with relevant injuries, we see a 20.2% usage rate and 0.98 FanDuel points per minute for Barnes. Achiuwa's rates are 20.1% and 0.88, respectively. Their game with the Philadelphia 76ers does have the tightest spread of the night, so we could get a nice game stack option out of this matchup, as well.
Others to Consider:
Andre Drummond ($9,100), Domantas Sabonis ($8,800), Bam Adebayo ($8,200), Ivica Zubac ($5,400), Isaiah Hartenstein ($4,000)
