NBA Betting Guide for Thursday 11/11/21: Backing Home Teams With Rest Advantages
Betting on the NBA can get a little overwhelming throughout the season because there are games every day, and there's just a lot to track throughout the season and entering every night -- spreads, over/unders, injuries, and so on.
But you can rely on numberFire to help. We have a detailed betting algorithm that projects out games to see how often certain betting lines hit, and you can track line movement within games and compare odds over at the oddsFire section of the site.
Where do our algorithm, our power rankings, and the betting trends identify value in tonight's games? (All odds from NBA Finals odds.)
Toronto Raptors at Philadelphia 76ers
numberFire's model is virtually always a fan of the Philadelphia 76ers, and that continues tonight, even with their health issues at the moment. Of note, Tobias Harris could return tonight.
Part of this is that the Toronto Raptors played last night (a theme for tonight's slate), and the 76ers have had a day of rest. Since 2016, slight home favorites (3.0 points or tighter) with a day of rest and facing a team on a back-to-back have won 56.9% of their games and have covered in 53.3% of such contests.
More notably yet, teams representing the 76ers -- across our 25 most comparable games historically -- won 80.0% of the time and covered their spreads at a 76.0% rate.
In games where Harris has played this season with Joel Embiid off the floor, the Sixers have put forth a strong net rating of +5.4 across 108 minutes.
Overall, numberFire's model rates the 76ers to cover (-3.0) as a four-star option and their moneyline (-146) as a full five-star opportunity.
Indiana Pacers at Utah Jazz
Another team that numberFire's algorithm always loves is the Utah Jazz. They're also getting bookmaker love tonight as 9.5-point home favorites against the 4-8 Indiana Pacers.
The model at numberFire views the Jazz as 87.5% likely to pick up the win. Yes, their moneyline is -450, but the near-lock territory of a victory is enough for a four-star rating. That means we can invest four units on their moneyline.
So far this season, the Jazz (8-3 overall) have a +9.4 point differential and have overperformed spread expectations by 2.5 points per game. The Pacers are a -0.6 in raw point differential and a +0.2 against the spread.
Given the home-court advantage -- and, once again, a rest advantage -- the Jazz shape up well.
The Pacers played last night, and the Jazz have had a day of rest. Since 2016, home teams favored by 7 to 12 points with a day of rest and against a team on a back-to-back have won their games at a 79.6% clip by an average of 9.8 points.
Miami Heat at Los Angeles Clippers
What's this? A ranger caught off his guard? Another home team with a day of rest against a road team on a back-to-back?
Yep.
The 6-4 Los Angeles Clippers get that double advantage against the 7-4 Miami Heat, who have now dropped three of their past four games. Their point differential is down to a -3.8 over their past five games, and their spread-adjusted point differential is -6.7 in that span.
The Heat were due for regression, so we can talk about that a bit. Entering last night's game against the Los Angeles Lakers, they were allowing a league-high 49.2% three-point attempt rate (so nearly half of opponent field goals have come from beyond the arc). However, opponents shot just 31.6% on those attempts, the fourth-lowest rate in the NBA. You can control three-point attempts but not really conversion.
The Clippers are top-10 in three-point attempt rate and three-point percentage themselves.
numberFire's model views the Clippers as 79.0% likely to get the win, making their moneyline (-154) a five-star recommendation and their spread (-3.5) a three-star recommendation.
It's another game to side with the home team.
