NBA Betting Guide for 2/19/21: Why the Public and the Algorithm Like the Grizzlies
Betting on the NBA can get a little overwhelming throughout the season because there are games every day, and there's just a lot to track throughout the season and entering every night -- spreads, over/unders, injuries, and so on.
But you can rely on numberFire to help. We have a detailed betting algorithm that projects out games to see how often certain betting lines hit, and our oddsFire section of the site allows you to track movement in those lines and see where the action is coming from on particular games.
Where do our algorithm, our power rankings, and the betting trends identify value in tonight's games? (All odds from NBA Finals odds.)
Atlanta Hawks at Boston Celtics
This is a rematch from a Wednesday game, one that the Atlanta Hawks won 122-114. The Hawks boasted an effective field goal percentage of 62.3% in that game, 10 points higher than the Boston Celtics' 52.3%, but the other four factors were fairly close.
The public betting trends are really supporting a Boston bounceback. Via oddsFire, 67% of the bets and 80% of the money are on the Boston moneyline (currently -161). That moneyline indicates win probability of 61.7%, but numberFire's algorithm gives Boston a 79.4% chance to win, making the moneyline a full-on five-star recommendation.
The spread, as well, is a value spot based on both the betting trends and our algorithm. The Celtics opened as 3.5-point favorites and are now listed at -4.0; 70% of the bets and 78% of the money are on the Celtics to cover. numberFire's algo indicates that it's a three-star wager and that they are 62.1% likely to cover. That yields an expected return of 18.6%.
Chicago Bulls at Philadelphia 76ers
One of the biggest discrepancies between betting tickets (41%) and money (65%) is on the under in this game between the Chicago Bulls and Philadelphia 76ers. The total has fallen -- but only a point from 229.5 to 228.5.
Though the results back the over -- in the sense that 58.6% of 76ers games and 55.6% of Bulls games have hit the over this season -- we're dealing with the NBA's 6th-ranked estimated defense in Philly and roughly an average one with the Bulls, who rank 19th.
numberFire's algorithm views slight value on this under, rating it a one-star recommendation out of five. Our projected total is 225.6, and we see this game falling under the posted total 56.4% of the time.
Of the 25 closest games to this one, historically, since 2000, 21 hit the under at their posted mark.
Detroit Pistons at Memphis Grizzlies
There's more consensus on the smart money and the algorithm in this game. So far, 63% of the bets on the spread here are on the Memphis Grizzlies to cover -- but 76% of the money is on Memphis to cover. That 13-point differential is one of the largest across the board -- any game and any bet type. There's a 9-point differential on the Memphis moneyline, as well (67% of the bets and 76% of the money).
numberFire's algorithm shows the Grizzlies winning this game by an average total of 6.1 points. That's a little tight for the current spread (-4.5), and more value is popping on the moneyline. Our algorithm suggests the Grizzlies beat the Detroit Pistons 71.7% of the time, but their moneyline (-176) indicates a 63.8% chance to win. That bet, then, indicates an expected return of 10.3%. We rate it as a three-star recommendation out of five.
Blake Griffin's absence is likely a factor here. Though the team has technically played better without Griffin (-2.2 net rating) than with him (-5.9), the Grizzlies still boast a stronger estimated net rating overall (-0.7). That's why the moneyline gets the nod.
