FanDuel Daily Fantasy Basketball Helper: Tuesday 3/10/20
If you're new to daily fantasy basketball -- maybe you started your DFS journey during the MLB or NFL seasons, or maybe basketball is your sport and this will be your first year giving it a shot -- you're in for a treat. The NBA scene changes on a week-to-week, day-to-day, and -- depending on injury news -- even a minute-to-minute basis, making every slate a unique one that requires an ever-changing approach.
With so much changing so quickly, we're here with plenty of tools to help you out. We have daily projections, a matchup heat map, a lineup optimizer, and a bunch of other great resources to help give you an edge.
Daily fantasy NBA is very reliant on opportunity, so you'll need to make sure that you're up-to-date with key injuries. Our projections update up until tip-off to reflect current news, we have player news updates, and the FanDuel Scout app will send push notifications for pressing updates regarding your players.
We'll also be coming at you with this primer every day, breaking down a few of the day's top plays at each position.
Let's take a look at who you should target on today's main slate.
|LA Clippers||Golden State||226.5||+11.5||119.00||107.50||8||13|
Notable injury situations to monitor: In superstar news, LeBron James is questionable for the Los Angeles Lakers, while Luka Doncic has the same designation for the Dallas Mavericks. Seth Curry, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, and Willie Cauley-Stein are all OUT for the Mavs, while Dorian Finney-Smith is a question mark. For the Golden State Warriors, Draymond Green is listed as OUT, while Steph Curry is questionable. The Boston Celtics are getting healthier, but Jaylen Brown remains OUT. Center Deandre Ayton is questionable for the Phoenix Suns. Evan Fournier is OUT for the Orlando Magic tonight. For the San Antonio Spurs, it looks like LaMarcus Aldridge, Dejounte Murray, Jakob Poeltl, and Lonnie Walker will all be OUT. Malcolm Brogdon is OUT for the Indiana Pacers, while Victor Oladipo is questionable. Tristan Thompson, Darius Garland, and Kevin Porter Jr. are all OUT for the Cleveland Cavaliers. The Chicago Bulls aren't faring any better -- Zach LaVine and Chandler Hutchison remain OUT. Eric Gordon and Ben McLemore are both questionable for the Houston Rockets. For the Brooklyn Nets, Garrett Temple is OUT once again.
(All matchup data is provided via FantasyPros)
Slam Dunk -- With the Bulls decimated by injuries, Shaq Harrison ($4,900) has scored at least 31.6 FanDuel points in three straight games, while playing an average of 32.79 minutes. At a salary of $4,900, Harrison needs just 24.5 fantasy points to equal 5x value (or 5.0 FanDuel points per $1,000 in salary). He should be able to surpass that with ease against a Cavs defense that allows point guards to treat them like a piñata -- Cleveland allows the most fantasy points to the position. On the expensive side, Russell Westbrook ($10,500) could be the one worth paying up for with Luka Doncic ($10,900) questionable, more expensive, and having a worse matchup. Russell needs 52.5 for 5x, and he's exceeded that in 10 of his last 12 home games. His opponent, the Minnesota Timberwolves, allow the third-most points to point guards this season. It doesn't hurt that the Rockets have an implied total that's 9.75 points higher than any team on the slate.
And One -- The Bulls aren't the best matchup for point guards, but Cleveland's Matthew Dellavedova ($3,900) and Collin Sexton ($6,200) have been oozing with value lately. That shouldn't change with at least three rotation players out tonight (Porter, Thompson, and Garland). Delly is one of the best bargain-bin options on the slate, as he's posted 25.5 points in 35.1 minutes over his last four. He's a great filler if you're looking to load your lineup with studs. He's also our top projected value at the position. Sexton's more expensive but possesses significantly more upside. He's averaged 38.4 over his last seven games, including three with more than 40 and two with 50-plus.
Free Throw -- If you're a fan of anxiety, might I suggest rolling with Ja Morant ($6,800)? Morant's floor will make you gray, but his ceiling will make your music play (poetry in its finest form). In his last five, he's had performances of 21.8, 33.9, and 55.2 -- the only thing predictable about him is that he's unpredictable. Tonight, he squares off against a banged-up Magic team that's been pummeled by point guards over their last 15, to the tune of 51.55 fantasy points per game -- most in the league in that span. Go with Morant if ja want to swing for the fences. (That's weak...I know.)
Slam Dunk...ish -- I'll be honest, trying to figure which shooting guards are the best plays tonight is like playing a game of "Where's Waldo?" There are quite a few players who are good bets to reach 5x, but their ceilings are questionable. And those with the highest ceilings are essentially priced accordingly. Terrence Ross ($5,400) is priced so that he needs just 27 points to equal 5x, and he's exceeded that number in six straight contests and eight of his last nine. The issue is that he's only topped 34.1 once during that stretch. That said, 6x is certainly attainable against a Memphis Grizzlies defense that has allowed the fourth-most points to the position on the season. RJ Barrett ($5,000) faces a Washington Wizards team that vacations on defense -- they've allowed the most points to shooting guards -- and he needs just 25 points for 5x. He's eclipsed 25 in five of his last six, but similar to Ross, his ceiling hasn't been fantastic (topped 27.3 once in that stretch). Both players are among the safer options at the position.
And One -- Another category of shooting guards tonight are those with steep prices and high ceilings, along with lineup-killing floors. D'Angelo Russell ($7,900) is taking part in the game with the highest projected total by 11.5 points, and his ceiling is sky-high. The Rockets are yielding the fifth-most points to shooting guards on the season at 43.35 -- though they have been better in that regard of late. Since being traded to the Wolves, Russell has had five games (out of 11) with 41.1-plus FanDuel points, including two with 51 or more. The issue here is that he needs 39.5 to reach 5x, and he hasn't posted that many points in five consecutive contests. Paying up for Russell could be worth it, with the hope that the matchup and pace of this game allows him to reach his ceiling. James Harden ($11,200) is in a similar situation. He needs a whopping 56 points for 5x, and he's posted 45.4 or less in four of his last six matches. Like Russell, the matchup and pace could make the hefty price tag pay off.
Free Throw -- From the Spurs, Bryn Forbes ($3,500) and DeMar DeRozan ($8,000) are plays worth considering. With LaMarcus Aldridge, Lonnie Walker, Jakob Poeltl, and Dejounte Murray all quite possibly out for San Antonio, they'll need all the help they can get against the Mavs. Luckily for them, Dallas has been the eighth-most generous team to shooting guards over their last 15 games. At a minimum salary, Forbes needs just 17.5 for 5x -- that's a number he's eclipsed in 20 of the 24 games where he's played at least 26.4 minutes. Our model projects him to be the third-best value at the position in 27.5 minutes of action. DeRozan needs 40 points on FanDuel to equal 5x. It's certainly attainable for him, but is his ceiling too low for that price tag? He's exceeded 43.6 fantasy points just once in his last nine games. Devin Booker ($8,200) is in the same boat as DeRozan -- high price, nice matchup, lofty ceiling, and a low floor that he often hits. I'd prefer him to DeRozan, especially if Ayton is inactive.
Slam Dunk -- Over their last 30 games, no team is allowing more fantasy or real-life points to small forwards than the Cavaliers. Enter Denzel Valentine ($3,900). The 26-year-old has averaged 22.5 over his last four, and he needs just 19.5 for 5x. At 6.46x, our model projects him to be the best value at the position. In the mid-range, Gordon Hayward ($6,100) seems to be very underpriced. Hayward sees a 3.3% usage increase and scores an additional 0.10 fantasy points per minute with Jaylen Brown off the court -- the latter of which is best on the team. The eye-test matches that data, as Hayward has averaged 39.8 points in the 10 games he's played with Jaylen Brown inactive, including six with 44-plus. The Pacers are tough on small forwards, but this is too good a spot.
And One -- Paul George ($7,400) had his first 50-point fantasy performance of 2020 on Sunday against the Lakers, which was certainly encouraging to see. At $7,400, his upside is quite clear. That said, he's only topped 37 FanDuel points -- which he needs for 5x -- once in more than a month, and there is significant blowout risk in this matchup with the Warriors. Rudy Gay ($4,300) is our algorithm's second-best projected value at small forward, and for good reason. He needs just 21.5 for 5x, and he has scored more than 25 in three of his last five -- that includes two games with 37.8 and 38.2. Dallas has surrendered the third-most fantasy points to the position this season.
Free Throw -- In the six games since Kelly Oubre went down with a knee injury, Mikal Bridges ($5,400) has averaged 30.4 fantasy points in 38.9 minutes of play. That's notable since he needs just 27 points for 5x. His matchup against the Blazers is just average, but his minutes are impossible to ignore.
Slam Dunk -- In 395.7 minutes with Tristan Thompson and Kevin Porter Jr. not on the court, Larry Nance Jr. ($5,600) averages a salivating 1.01 fantasy points per minute. That's quite intriguing, considering that Nance has been on the court for an average of 38.2 minutes in his last four bouts. The ever-generous Bulls have been better against power forwards lately, though they've allowed the second-most fantasy points to the position this season. Over the last three games alone, Nance has displayed every one of his possible range of outcomes -- posting 53, 18.4, and 31, in that order. He needs 28 points for 5x tonight, and he's eclipsed that in three of his last four, including two with 43.6 and 53, respectively. He's numberFire's second-best projected value at the position. Trey Lyles ($4,900) is probably the best option under $5,000. He has scored at least 27.4 points in four of his last five. However, the matchup with the Mavs won't be a walk in the park.
And One -- Speaking of the Mavericks, Maxi Kleber ($4,400) should benefit from a host of injuries on the squad. Willie Cauley-Stein has eaten into Kleber's workload since being traded to Dallas, and he's out tonight. Kleber is averaging 27.8 points in his last seven games without WCS in the lineup. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist and Seth Curry being out certainly doesn't hurt, and his value would be even further enhanced if Dorian Finney-Smith were to be inactive. In the mid-price range, Aaron Gordon ($7,000) is quite an attractive option. The real Slam Dunk champion faces a Grizzlies team that's allowed the seventh-most points to opposing power forwards over their last 15 contests. Gordon needs a mere 35 points to reach 5x -- he's exceeded that in 9 of his last 10 games, including four with 48 or more.
Free Throw -- Robert Covington ($6,200) is in a wonderful spot tonight against his former team. Since trading Covington, the Wolves have been the second-worst team at defending the power forward position. Essentially, the only player in Minnesota who could've defended Robert Covington... was Robert Covington. He needs 31 points to achieve 5x value on FanDuel, and he's topped that number with ease in 7 of his last 10 contests. Anthony Davis ($10,400) is probably the top stud play on the slate if LeBron is out.
Slam Dunk -- Andre Drummond ($8,200) is almost irresistible at tonight's price tag. According to our models, Drummond has the highest ceiling at the center position and is $1,300 cheaper than the guy below him (Hassan Whiteside $9,500). In his last two healthy games, Drummond has posted 57.9 and 62.6, respectively. He's in a position to put up a similar performance against a Bulls team that allows the second-most fantasy points to opposing centers on the season. On the cheap side, Wendell Carter Jr. ($3,900) is our top projected value at the position.