FanDuel Daily Fantasy Basketball Helper: Tuesday 3/3/20
If you're new to daily fantasy basketball -- maybe you started your DFS journey during the MLB or NFL seasons, or maybe basketball is your sport and this will be your first year giving it a shot -- you're in for a treat. The NBA scene changes on a week-to-week, day-to-day, and -- depending on injury news -- even a minute-to-minute basis, making every slate a unique one that requires an ever-changing approach.
With so much changing so quickly, we're here with plenty of tools to help you out. We have daily projections, a matchup heat map, a lineup optimizer, and a bunch of other great resources to help give you an edge.
Daily fantasy NBA is very reliant on opportunity, so you'll need to make sure that you're up-to-date with key injuries. Our projections update up until tip-off to reflect current news, we have player news updates, and the FanDuel Scout app will send push notifications for pressing updates regarding your players.
We'll also be coming at you with this primer every day, breaking down a few of the day's top plays at each position.
Let's take a look at who you should target on today's main slate.
|LA Clippers||Oklahoma City||226.0||+3.5||114.75||111.25||8||20|
Notable injury situations to monitor: For the Boston Celtics, Kemba Walker is expected to return, while Jayson Tatum is unlikely to play due to an illness. Joel Embiid (shoulder), Ben Simmons (back), and Josh Richardson (concussion) are all OUT for the Philadelphia 76ers. Anthony Davis (knee) is once again questionable for the Los Angeles Lakers -- Alex Caruso (hamstring) is questionable. For the San Antonio Spurs, LaMarcus Aldridge (shoulder) is probably closer to doubtful, while Jakob Poeltl (knee) is OUT. Devonte' Graham (ankle) is OUT for the Charlotte Hornets, and fellow guard Malik Monk is suspended indefinitely. Garrett Temple (shoulder) is questionable for the Brooklyn Nets. Karl-Anthony Towns (wrist) remains out for the Minnesota Timberwolves. J.J. Redick (hamstring) is out for the New Orleans Pelicans. Draymond Green (knee) is questionable for the Golden State Warriors -- Ky Bowman (ankle) is out. For the Denver Nuggets, Paul Millsap (ankle) is questionable. Marc Gasol (hamstring) remains out for the Toronto Raptors -- Serge Ibaka (knee) and Fred VanVleet (shoulder) are questionable.
(All matchup data is provided via FantasyPros)
Slam Dunk -- With Graham likely out for the Hornets and Monk suspended, the biggest beneficiary is likely to be Terry Rozier ($5,700). (Not so) Scary Terry has averaged 35.69 minutes over his last three, and that workload is unlikely to get any lighter tonight. In the 27 games where he's played at least 35 minutes, Rozier has averaged a rock-solid 35.41 FanDuel points -- that includes at least 30 points in 20 of them (74%). No player on Charlotte has a higher usage rate with Monk and Graham off the court than Rozier. Tonight, he'll face a Spurs teams that's allowed the seventh-most real-life and ninth-most fantasy points to point guards on the season. Our model has Rozier projected as the second-best value at the position.
And One -- The Philadelphia 76ers are running out of healthy bodies. With the team down Embiid, Simmons, and Richardson, Shake Milton ($5,700) should continue to reap the benefits. Milk-Shake has averaged a whopping 36.1 minutes over his last three contests, resulting in an average of 40.5 fantasy points. At $5,700, Milton needs just 28.5 fantasy points to equal 5x value (or 5.0 FanDuel points per $1,000 in salary) -- he could surpass that with ease. Over their last 30 games, the Lakers are surrendering the third-most rebounds, fourth-most assists, sixth-most steals, and eighth-most fantasy points to opposing point guards -- that's quite shaky (get it?). Our model projects Milton to shake things up (...) with 30.4 fantasy points in 34.63 minutes, making him the fourth-best value at the point position.
Free Throw -- Aside from having a very nice price ($6,900), Jamal Murray is in a great position to produce tonight. He's going up against a Golden State team that treats point guard like the rest of us treat bees -- they just move aside and let 'em do their thing. The Warriors have allowed the second-most fantasy points to the position on the season. Murray needs 34.5 fantasy points to equal 5x, and that's a number he's topped with ease in 13 of his 25 home contests this season.
Slam Dunk -- It's hard not to like the situation Malik Beasley ($5,500) is in tonight. Firstly, he's taking part in the game that has the highest projected total on the slate...by 13.5 points -- you're going to want a part of that. Second, over their last 30 games, the Pelicans have essentially been the bingo equivalent of a free space. They've allowed the most fantasy points and steals to the position, as well as the third-most real-life points and fourth-most made three-pointers. Beasley needs 27.5 points to reach 5x value, which is a total he's easily surpassed in five of his last nine contests.
And One -- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ($6,900) has averaged 39.4 points over his last 19 home contests -- that includes 14 games with 35.2-plus and 9 games with 40 or more. That's significant because he needs merely 34.5 points to reach 5x on FanDuel tonight. Over their last 15 games, the Los Angeles Clippers have allowed the 11th-most fantasy points to opposing shooting guards, including the fourth-most blocks and ninth-most rebounds. In his most recent #revengegame against the Clippers in December, SGA posted 47.1 points on the exact same $6,900 (nice) salary. Our algorithm has him totaling 35.3 fantasy, thus surpassing 5x.
Free Throw -- Jrue Holiday ($8,100) doesn't come cheap, but our model has him with the third-highest ceiling at the position. Holiday is a DFS version of a Magic 8-Ball. Over his last nine contests, he's had two performances with 52.9 or more, three between 40.4 and 45.8, and two with 27 or less. He's never a sure thing. That said, his upside is immense tonight. I've already mentioned the ridiculous over/under of this game, but Holiday is also facing a Minnesota team that's allowed the fifth-most points to the position over their last 30 games.
Slam Dunk -- With Tatum likely out, it's worth looking at who on the Celtics stands to benefit the most. Kemba is the obvious answer, but he's expected to be on a minutes limit tonight, which likely caps his upside. Marcus Smart didn't see any real boost in fantasy production in the games Tatum missed earlier in the year, and he might take a hit with Walker back. Which brings me to Jaylen Brown ($6,200) and Gordon Hayward ($6,000). In 526.3 (Hayward) and 565.6 (Brown) minutes without Tatum on the floor, Hayward has seen the bigger boost in usage -- +3.3% versus +2.8%. More importantly, in the games Tatum has been inactive this season, Hayward has averaged 39.8 points, while Brown has posted 32.1. It's just a four-game sample, but in addition to Hayward being cheaper, it's enough to make him the better play. Our models have Hayward projected as the best value at small forward.
And One -- Jaylen Brown ($6,200), see the above paragraph.
Free Throw -- Seven Hornets players have been on the court for at least 100 minutes without Graham and Monk. Of those seven, none saw a bigger bump (+0.13) in fantasy points per minute than Miles Bridges ($5,700). Bridges needs 28.5 points to reach 5x value tonight, and that's a total he's exceeded in five of his last seven contests. His opponent, the Spurs, have allowed the sixth-most points to small forwards on the season. numberFire projects him to post 30.3 Fantasy points tonight in 34.87 minutes.
Slam Dunk -- With Aldridge, Poeltl, and Marco Belinelli all out tonight, Trey Lyles ($5,400) is once again a great value play. Lyles has averaged 41.5 points in 38.23 minutes over his last two contests, and he needs just 27 points to equal 5x tonight. On the season, only two teams are allowing more points to opposing power forwards than the Hornets. The biggest risk here is Greg Popovich treating his rotation like Bill Belichick treats his running backs -- which is not frustrating at all (that's sarcasm...if you couldn't tell).
And One -- Weirdly enough, eight of Kawhi Leonard's ($9,100) last nine games with 49-plus fantasy points have come on the road. In fact, over Kawhi's last nine road games, he's averaging a mouth-watering 56.6 FanDuel points -- that includes 40 games with 60 or more and just one with fewer than 49.4. Not that matchups matter much with Leonard, but the usually-stingy Thunder have allowed the fifth-most rebounds, eighth-most real-life points, and ninth-most fantasy point to power forwards over their last seven games. Our models peg Leonard with the fourth-highest ceiling on the slate, but he's a good $1,100 cheap than any of those above him. Those who use the board man should get paid tonight.
Free Throw -- Al Horford ($6,200) has been priced-up, but that doesn't mean he can't provide value. The issue with Horford is just how much value can he provide, given his usually low ceiling. 5x shouldn't be a big hurdle for the 33-year-old -- he needs just 31 points to reach it -- but expecting something like 7x from him is unrealistic, as he would need at least 43.4 points, and he hasn't reached that since November. There is a small risk of the Sixers once again completely forgetting that they're professional basketball players since they're on the road, which could lead to them getting blown out of the waters by the Lakers. That said, think of Horford as more of a safe play to mix in with riskier, higher-upside options.
Slam Dunk -- The Raptors are generally a subpar matchup for centers, but with Gasol out and Ibaka questionable, this is shaping up to be an intriguing matchup for Deandre Ayton ($8,600). In fact, over their last seven games, Toronto has allowed the eighth-most fantasy points to opposing centers. At tonight's price point, Ayton is the cheapest he's been in over a month, which means this is a perfect time to take advantage. While he's barely old enough to actually legally place a bet, Ayton is a decent bet to reach 5x tonight. He needs 43 points to do so, and he's comfortably surpassed that in 11 of his last 19 contests. Our model gives him the second-highest ceiling at the position and projects him to post 43.1 tonight.
And One -- Over their last 15 games, only the Atlanta Hawks have surrendered more points to the center position than the Wolves. In fact, during that period, Minnesota is also bottom-six in real-life points, rebounds, assists, and blocks surrendered to the position. That brings us to Derrick Favors ($5,300). Derrick has done us no favors (seriously, that's comedic gold) with his recent batch of games -- he's averaged 35.7 fantasy points over his last two, but just 22.1 over his prior five. That said, this matchup is too good to ignore, and we want as much exposure to that 246.5 total as we can get.