FanDuel Daily Fantasy Baseball Helper: Wednesday 5/3/23

A handful of pitchers stand out on Wednesday night, while Coors Field headlines our potential stacks. With a fair number of early games, the main slate is comprised of eight games.

Our daily helper is available every day to analyze FanDuel's main slate and help give you a starting point when you're building lineups. Be sure to also incorporate our great tools into your research process. Whether you're looking for daily projections, the latest starting lineups and weather, or batting and pitching heat maps to find the best matchups -- we've got you covered!

Let's check out the top options on today's main slate.

Pitching Breakdown

Shohei Ohtani ($11,100) has been filthy on the mound this year, owning the league's fourth-best strikeout rate (35.1%), and if we exclude a rain-shortened start, he's reached 8 punchouts in four of his other five outings.

But it hasn't all been perfect, as he's also been a bit wild (13.0% walk rate), which has sometimes been a problem in his career. His sizable gap in ERA (1.85) and SIERA (3.66) can be explained by an unsustainable .150 BABIP.

Still, his ceiling isn't in question against an underachieving Cardinals team that's showing just a 3.54 implied team total. While St. Louis was pretty ruthless to right-handers in 2022, their active roster has been closer to average in the split this season (102 wRC+). They aren't a great matchup for punchouts, but that shouldn't be an issue if Ohtani is doing his usual thing.

The walks add risk to Ohtani's outlook, but he's still arguably the top option in tournaments.

If there's anyone threatening Shohei's crown tonight, it's Logan Gilbert ($9,800), who's also putting up impressive numbers and comes in at a much lower salary.

Unlike Ohtani, Gilbert's luck has gone in the other direction through a 15.4% homer-to-fly-ball rate that's roughly 5 percentage points higher than his career average. This likely explains why he has a 4.23 ERA despite posting a 3.04 SIERA, 30.1% strikeout rate, 4.4% walk rate, and 50.0% ground-ball rate.

What seals the deal for rostering Gilbert tonight is a cupcake matchup versus Oakland. The A's come in with a 91 wRC+ and 26.2% strikeout rate versus righties, and with numbers like that against a strong pitcher, it's no surprise to see them with a slate-low 3.31 implied team total.

Dylan Cease ($8,900) doesn't have the easiest matchup against the Twins, but he could be a popular value play.

Cease is coming off back-to-back clunkers against the Rays -- something that can be forgiven -- but his 26.2% strikeout rate remains one of the better marks on the slate. Walks continue to plague him (10.6% rate), which is nothing new, but the upside is there when he's dialed in, such as his 10-strikeout performance versus the Astros in his opening start.

Minnesota's active roster has been above-average against right-handers this season (108 wRC+), but they've also handed out punchouts at a 24.3% clip. If you're looking to save at the position, Cease looks like your best bet.

If you're willing to roll the dice on a punt play, you could do worse than taking a chance on JP Sears ($6,800).

The 27-year-old lefty has generally gotten rocked this year, but his 4.29 SIERA, 24.8% strikeout rate, and 5.5% walk rate are actually pretty good. The issue is that he's giving up barrels at a worrisome clip, so it probably isn't entirely a fluke that he's allowed at least one dinger in all five of his 2023 starts.

However, Sears put up a head-turning 11 strikeouts versus the Rangers two starts ago, which should have us at least intrigued. Given his lackluster strikeout rate last season (17.7%), that could end up being an outlier, but the southpaw also had a 33.7% strikeout rate in Triple-A, so the potential could be there. The Mariners have a 26.9% strikeout rate versus lefties so far this year, so this isn't the worst spot to take a chance.

Hitting Breakdown

The Milwaukee Brewers disappointed at Coors Field last night, but they have a great chance to redeem themselves against Kyle Freeland. The left-hander's combination of a low strikeout rate (15.6%) and low ground-ball rate (39.0%) should be music to our ears at Coors, and Milwaukee is being credited with a 6.12 implied team total.

We'll naturally prioritize right-handed batters versus the lefty, and Freeland is allowing a 48.2% fly-ball rate and 39.8% hard-hit rate in the split. Willy Adames ($3,700) and William Contreras ($3,300) are the top righty sticks, and then there's plenty of value if you're spending at pitcher between guys like Michael Brosseau ($2,800), Luke Voit ($2,800), and Tyrone Taylor ($2,500).

The Colorado Rockies had a tough matchup yesterday, but that isn't the case this time around, and their implied team total is way up there, too (5.88).

Left-hander Eric Lauer entered the season coming off back-to-back solid campaigns, but he hasn't had it in 2023, submitting a 4.86 SIERA, 20.5% strikeout rate, and 8.9% walk rate through five starts. Similar to Freeland, Lauer is getting knocked around by righties, allowing a 46.3% fly-ball rate and 41.8% hard-hit rate. Kris Bryant ($3,700) and C.J. Cron ($3,500) are the first priorities, and then Randal Grichuk ($2,700) is arguably the top value play.

The Toronto Blue Jays make the list again tonight, this time facing Nick Pivetta. Pivetta is all about the "three true outcomes," producing a high rate of strikeouts (25.5%), walks (10.0%), and home runs (1.82 per 9 innings). This is what we've come to expect from Pivetta, and the Blue Jays have the highest implied team total outside of Coors (5.14).

Roster the usual high-salaried bats where you can, but it's also easy to put together a value stack between George Springer ($2,800) and Daulton Varsho ($2,700) still being under-salaried and the bottom of the order all salaried below $3,000 each.

Remember that home run problem I noted about JP Sears? Well, that means that we shouldn't be afraid to stack against him with the Seattle Mariners. Sears is only inducing grounders at a 26.0% rate, leading to a massive 61.6% fly-ball rate allowed. Beyond Julio Rodriguez ($3,600), it's pretty much all low-salaried bats, with Eugenio Suarez ($2,600), Teoscar Hernandez ($2,800), and A.J. Pollock ($2,500) standing out.

The Baltimore Orioles, Chicago Cubs, and Boston Red Sox round out the top stacks. The Orioles are against Zack Greinke, who has a middling 16.3% strikeout rate and a Baseball Savant page that looks like this. Jake Irvin is making his big league debut against the Cubs, and his Triple-A numbers don't exactly move the needle, with a 5.30 xFIP, 20.4% strikeout rate, and 11.2% walk rate over five starts. Alek Manoah has been shaky in 2023, and Boston could take advantage of both a 19.3% strikeout rate and 13.8% walk rate.