MLB Betting Guide: Tuesday 8/16/22
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money – whether you are betting on the total, a runline, or moneyline.
For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet. For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a three-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
Using our model as a guide, let's take a look at today's most appealing MLB lines from FanDuel Sportsbook.
Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Chicago Cubs at Washington Nationals
Nationals Moneyline (+146): 2-Star Rating Out of 5
Lefties Justin Steele and Patrick Corbin square off tonight in Washington, and our model likes the underdog Washington Nationals.
Corbin might not be quite as terrible as what we've been used to from him. He is coming off back-to-back solid months, posting xFIPs of 3.80 and 3.68 in June and July, respectively. That's not bad by his standards. While he's been hammered lately, giving up 30 earned runs over his last six starts (21 2/3 innings), four of those six outings came against really stiff competition in the Atlanta Braves (twice), Los Angeles Dodgers and New York Mets. Things should be a lot easier today against the Chicago Cubs.
Steele is missing bats at a high rate right now, punching out 25 over his last 14 1/3 innings. But those 14 1/3 frames actually cover three starts. A combination of fairly short pitch counts (topped out at 93 pitches over his last five) and too many walks (9.6% walk rate for the year) has led to some brief outings. That means we'll see plenty of the Cubs' bullpen, which used to be a strength of the team but has been depleted of late and holds the seventh-worst xFIP (4.36) over the last 14 days.
Our model gives the Nats a 48.0% chance to win in a game that we have as pretty close to a coin flip. Washington's implied win odds at their +146 moneyline are just 40.6%. Taking Washington to win is a two-star bet (two-unit recommendation), according to our numbers.
Colorado Rockies at St. Louis Cardinals
Over 7.5 (-110): 2-Star Rating Out of 5
Another game with a pair of left-handed starters, and it's another spot where our algorithm sees value -- this time in the total.
Jose Quintana and Kyle Freeland are expected to start, and they're both facing an offense that is good against southpaws.
The St. Louis Cardinals should do the heavy lifting for us versus Freeland. With righties Nolan Arenado, Paul Goldschmidt and Tyler O'Neill, this Cards lineup is going to be quite a chore for Freeland. For the campaign, St. Louis is second in wOBA (.343) against lefties, and they just rocked Freeland for 10 hits and six earned runs over 4 1/3 innings last week in Coors. This one isn't at Coors, but we think the Cardinals roll again, projecting them to plate 5.18 runs.
The Colorado Rockies are also excellent against left-handers, sitting fourth in wOBA (.338) in the split. Brendan Rodgers, Randal Grichuk and C.J. Cron have helped make this a formidable lineup versus lefties. The Rox have a much tougher matchup as Quintana has been on point for most of the season, but if the Cards do what we project them to do, Colorado's offense doesn't need to do much to push this game over 7.5 runs. We have them scoring 3.67.
Something else in the over's favor is that neither bullpen is all that good. Over the last 14 days, Colorado's relievers rank ninth-worst in xFIP (4.31) while the Cards' bullpen slots in a middling 16th (3.72).
So, in all, we project a total of 8.85 runs to come across. We give the over a 60.8% chance to hit and mark it as a two-star wager.
