FanDuel Daily Fantasy Baseball Helper: Friday 7/8/22

It's Friday, so that means we've got a hefty 14-game slate going tonight, but outside of the top value at pitcher, this could be a pretty wide-open night for DFS. As of this writing, just two teams have implied totals above five runs.

Our daily helper is available every day to analyze FanDuel's main slate and help give you a starting point when you're building lineups. Be sure to also incorporate our great tools into your research process. Whether you're looking for daily projections, the latest starting lineups and weather, or batting and pitching heat maps to find the best matchups -- we've got you covered!

Let's check out the top options on today's main slate.

Pitchers

Lucas Giolito ($8,800): Giolito's results haven't been as consistent as we would like, but his 3.63 SIERA and 27.3% strikeout rate are right around how he performed in 2021.

Free passes have occasionally been an issue (8.9% walk rate), but the biggest concern has been allowing 1.79 home runs per nine innings. The dingers could partially be a product of bad luck, though, as his 16.9% homer-to-fly-ball rate is roughly three percentage points higher than what he's allowed in each of the last four seasons.

The good news is that we don't need to worry about home runs nearly as much against a team like the Tigers. Detroit's active roster owns a league-worst .106 ISO against right-handed pitching while also striking out at the fourth-highest clip (24.3%).

Particularly at this salary, this looks like the perfect spot to buy in on Giolito. However, this all points to him being the clear chalk option on this slate, and considering he's exceeded six innings only once all year and hasn't scored more than 46 FanDuel points in any start, you may want to consider roster percentages before deciding your exposure in tournaments.

Charlie Morton ($10,000): Left for dead after a slow start to the season, Morton's proven he's got plenty left in the tank lately, producing a 2.13 xFIP, 37.2% strikeout rate, and 6.1% walk rate since the beginning of June. Across those six starts, he's racked up at least eight strikeouts five times and has hit double-digits in three.

While we shouldn't expect him to keep up this level of play, it's led to his season-long numbers settling into a 3.52 SIERA, 27.3% strikeout rate, and 8.4% walk rate that fall in line with his performance in recent seasons.

This isn't a great matchup for upside against the Nationals, though, as Washington's active roster carries a mere 19.5% strikeout rate versus righties. But on a slate lacking anyone with a strikeout rate above 28% and no obvious answers beyond Giolito, this isn't a bad night to take a chance on Morton's hot streak continuing.

Zack Wheeler ($10,200): You could make the case that Wheeler is the top overall pitching talent on the board, but he has an even tougher matchup than Morton, taking on the Cardinals. Among active rosters, St. Louis has the sixth-best wRC+ (115) and seventh-best strikeout rate (20.3%) against righties.

Wheeler will have his work cut out for him, but he's in the midst of another outstanding campaign, posting a 3.08 SIERA, 27.9% strikeout rate, and 5.6% walk rate across 15 outings.

Similar to last year, Wheeler is consistently pitching deep into games, as well, helping him to quality starts in 10 of his last 12 appearances.

He's facing the Cardinals in back-to-back starts, which isn't ideal, but he held them scoreless over seven innings on his way to 46 FanDuel points, proving he can get the job done.

Stacks

Atlanta Braves

The Atlanta Braves will enjoy home temperatures cracking 90 degrees and have a slate-best 5.41 implied total versus Erick Fedde. Fedde has gotten decent results in 2022, but there isn't a whole lot in his profile to scare us.

Over 16 starts, he's put up a 4.74 SIERA, 19.0% strikeout rate, and 10.8% walk rate, and he's also showing a career-low 43.9% ground-ball rate. The reduction of grounders hasn't led to more home runs, but considering he's also allowing a 10.2% homer-to-fly-ball rate -- well below his career average of 17.8% -- he looks to be due for regression.

That regression could come swiftly against a Braves team that ranks second in barrels per plate appearance this season.

The veteran right-hander has a 4.85 xFIP and 16.4% strikeout rate against lefties, so Matt Olson ($3,700) is in a particularly great spot, and Eddie Rosario ($2,600) has increased appeal as a value play.

A 21.5% strikeout rate in same-sided matchups is hardly the stuff of nightmares, though, so also take your pick of Ronald Acuna Jr. ($4,400), Dansby Swanson ($3,800), Austin Riley ($4,200), Travis d'Arnaud ($3,300), and Marcell Ozuna ($3,200).

New York Yankees

Connor Seabold's deserved better than his massive 8.31 ERA after going through BABIP hell (.462) over two starts, but a date with the New York Yankees isn't likely to help him remedy the situation.

Seabold has actually put up a 25.0% strikeout rate and 16.3% swinging-strike rate thus far, so he may not even be a half-bad pitcher. However, he put up a 24.8% strikeout rate and 11.9% swinging-strike rate in 11 Triple-A starts before his call-up, suggesting that those punchouts are destined to come down at a higher level of competition.

The 26-year-old has also allowed a sub-40% ground-ball rate at both levels, perhaps making him susceptible to the home run ball.

While it's always tricky to stack against unknown commodities, it gets a whole lot easier when you're able to roster Aaron Judge ($4,300), Giancarlo Stanton ($3,700), and the rest of the gang. New York's 5.14 implied total is bested by only the aforementioned Braves.

Arizona Diamondbacks

We don't often see the Arizona Diamondbacks near the top of slate when it comes to implied totals, but here they are at 4.99 against Chad Kuhl.

Kuhl is actually having a solid year for the Rockies, but his 4.80 SIERA is nearly a full run above his ERA, and a 16.9% strikeout rate and 8.6% walk rate are rather meh. The right-hander is allowing just 0.87 home runs per nine innings despite his 37.1% ground-ball rate, and it's all due to an incredibly fortunate 7.6% homer-to-fly-ball rate.

Let's hope the D-backs can cash in on some regression, and left-handed batters should lead the way, with Kuhl displaying a 5.04 xFIP in the split.

Luckily for us, Arizona should have plenty of lefties and switch-hitters in their lineup, including Josh Rojas ($2,800), Alek Thomas ($2,700), Ketel Marte ($3,100), David Peralta ($3,000), and Daulton Varsho ($3,400). Of that group, Marte has been their best all-around hitter (118 wRC+), and Peralta's shown the most pop (.219 ISO).

Kuhl has a low strikeout rate versus righties, too, so Christian Walker ($3,500) is another top play. Walker has been far and away their biggest home run threat (21) and leads the team in barrels per plate appearance.