MLB Betting Guide: Thursday 6/30/22

numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money – whether you are betting on the total, a runline, or moneyline.

For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet. For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a three-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.

Using our model as a guide, let's take a look at today's most appealing MLB lines from FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.

New York Yankees at Houston Astros

Astros Moneyline (+102): 2-Star Rating Out of 5

We've hit four of our last five, including going two-for-two yesterday. Let's keep it going.

The New York Yankees and Houston Astros treated us to a heck of a series last week, and they'll meet up once more tonight as part of a makeup game. It's never fun betting against the Yanks -- a team that has won a hard-to-fathom 56 of 76 games this season, but the value lies on the Houston side.

Houston is sending Luis Garcia to the bump. Garcia has been really good in 2022, setting career-best marks in SIERA (3.57) and swinging-strike rate (13.8%). He's upped his strikeout rate of late, generating a 32.8% clip across his last three starts.

While the Yankees obviously have a top-notch offense, the Pinstripes haven't been at the top of their game lately. Over the last 14 days, New York is just 13th in wOBA (.321) with the 11th-highest strikeout rate (23.8%). Their wOBA is a lowly .280 across the last seven days. Garcia is plenty capable, and he might be getting the Yankees at the right time.

Luis Severino is going for the Yanks. Severino owns a 3.13 SIERA, 29.7% strikeout rate, and 13.7% swinging-strike rate. He does, however, have an issue with homers, allowing a 41.2% fly-ball rate and 1.38 taters per nine. Despite pitching his home games in a homer-happy park, Severino is actually surrendering way more jacks on the road -- 1.98 per nine away from home, compared to 1.01 in the Bronx.

Houston's offense is a really difficult matchup. Not only do they have power (.322 wOBA), they don't strikeout much (20.0% rate, third-lowest) -- although they will likely be sans both Yordan Alvarez and Jeremy Pena after yesterday's collision.

While Houston is a +102 moneyline 'dog, our model thinks the Astros should be favored. We give them a 54.8% chance to win and rate taking Houston on the moneyline as a two-star bet (two-unit recommendation).

San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers

Padres Moneyline (+118): 1-Star Rating Out of 5

The San Diego Padres have the edge on the mound tonight against the Los Angeles Dodgers, and that makes San Diego an appealing underdog.

Joe Musgrove is up for the Padres. Musgrove had his worst start of the season last time out (six earned runs and one punchout in six frames), which came just after he was removed from the COVID list. I'm willing to give him a pass for that one, and he's been excellent nearly every other time he's toed the slab. For the year, the right-hander has pitched to a 3.31 SIERA, 24.6% strikeout rate, and 11.2% swinging-strike rate.

We've seen LA's offense look mortal recently. Without Mookie Betts and with Justin Turner and Max Muncy struggling, the Dodgers' lineup just hasn't been as potent as what we're used to. Over the last seven days, the Dodgers have the eighth-highest strikeout rate (24.5%), and they scored four and zero runs in back-to-back Coors games on Monday and Tuesday.

Mitch White is getting the ball for the Dodgers. White has stepped into the rotation following Walker Buehler's injury, and he's spent time in both the 'pen and the starting rotation this year. As a starter, his numbers are pretty meh, including a 4.10 xFIP. He hasn't gone more than 78 pitches in any start.

As I said at the jump, this really comes down to the pitching matchup. Assuming Musgrove's last outing was a fluke, San Diego has the advantage on the mound.

Priced as a +118 underdog, the Padres have implied win odds of 45.9%. Our algorithm thinks San Diego wins 50.1% of the time. We like taking the Padres to win and give it a one-star rating.