MLB Betting Guide: Tuesday 6/28/22

numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money – whether you are betting on the total, a runline, or moneyline.

For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet. For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a three-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.

Using our model as a guide, let's take a look at today's most appealing MLB lines from FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.

Oakland Athletics at New York Yankees

Oakland Moneyline (+162): 2-Star Rating Out of 5

The New York Yankees are a much better team than the Oakland Athletics, but pitching can be the great equalizer.

The A's are giving the ball to ace Frankie Montas while the Yanks are turning to JP Sears.

Sears is a rookie with all of seven MLB innings under his belt. He has thrived in Triple-A this year, recording a 33.6% strikeout rate and 4.0% walk rate over 39 1/3 innings. He also gets a nice matchup against an Oakland offense that has the worst wOBA in baseball. Despite all that, our model has Oakland putting up 4.32 runs today, and with Montas on the bump, that type of offensive output should give them a shot.

Montas has been excellent in 2022, registering a 3.32 SIERA, 25.5% strikeout rate, 13.0% swinging-strike rate and 6.1% walk rate. He also keeps the ball on the ground a lot with a 48.1% ground-ball rate, and that will help today at homer-happy Yankee Stadium.

Montas has shown the ability to deliver against top-notch offenses. He faced the Boston Red Sox and Houston Astros in back-to-back starts roughly a month ago and held them to three total earned runs over 13 innings while punching out 12. We have him keeping the Yankees to only 4.56 runs.

So, in all, we have the Yankees winning by a score of 4.56 to 4.32, but we give the A's a 44.9% chance to win. Those are much better odds than the 38.2% implied odds from their +162 moneyline price. Taking Oakland to win is a two-star bet, per our model.

Chicago White Sox at Los Angeles Angels

Chicago Moneyline (+136): 2-Star Rating Out of 5
Chicago +1.5 (-156): 3-Star Rating Out of 5

We're really into the underdog Chicago White Sox today for their road matchup with the Los Angeles Angels.

Johnny Cueto is going for Chicago, and the wily veteran is still getting it done. He's spun his way to a 3.98 SIERA in 48 innings this season. He's allowed more than three earned runs in just one outing, and in three starts against the elite offenses of the Yankees, Astros and Los Angeles Dodgers, Cueto has surrendered only three combined earned runs over 19 innings. He can thrive against an Angels offense that sits just 17th in wOBA (.310) and has the league's highest strikeout rate (25.4%).

The Halos will counter with rookie Chase Silseth, who has dominated Double-A but struggled in his jump to The Show. Over a small sample of 16 1/3 career MLB frames, Silseth owns a 4.94 SIERA, 15.5% strikeout rate and 9.9% walk rate. He's also permitted 2.20 dingers per nine. He's facing a tall order today against a White Sox attack that has heated up of late, ranking 10th in wOBA (.325) over the last 14 days, and recently got back leadoff man Tim Anderson.

Chicago is priced as a +136 underdog, but we actually have the Pale Hose winning this game 4.99-4.60 and give them win odds of 51.8%. Taking the White Sox to win is a two-star bet. We also like them on the runline, where they are -156 to cover as 1.5-run 'dogs.

The -156 price implies odds of 61.0%, but we think they cover 69.0% of the time and rate Chicago +1.5 as a three-star wager.