MLB Betting Guide: Wednesday 6/29/22
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money – whether you are betting on the total, a runline, or moneyline.
For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet. For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a three-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Boston Moneyline (+148): 1-Star Rating Out of 5
We've got a pretty sweet all-around matchup today in this AL East bout between the Boston Red Sox and Toronto Blue Jays. Starters Nick Pivetta and Alek Manoah are having nice years, and they'll both face a top-notch offense as these two teams sit in the top six in wOBA.
Manoah has pitched to a 2.05 ERA and 9-2 record. Those are dazzling numbers, but he hasn't been quite as good as those marks indicate. His SIERA is 3.70, and his 22.8% strikeout rate is miles below his 27.7% clip from 2021. He's benefitting from a fortunate 6.2% homer-to-fly-ball rate despite a high 40.6% fly-ball rate.
Pivetta's story is a similar one to Manoah's as he's also benefitting from some good luck -- his coming in the form of a .259 BABIP (career average is .307). But Pivetta's 24.0% strikeout rate is a strong number, and he's in stellar form, allowing only four earned runs over his past three starts (22 innings).
Our model likes Boston a wee bit more than oddsmakers do. We give the Red Sox a 41.5% chance to win while their implied odds at the +148 moneyline price are 40.3%. We have Boston on the moneyline as a one-star bet.
Over 7.5 (-116): 3-Star Rating Out of 5
Greene is among the most volatile and hard-to-predict pitchers in the game. He has permitted a 54.5% fly-ball rate and an eye-popping 2.57 jacks per nine. However, he's also registered a 28.9% strikeout rate and 13.0% swinging-strike rate. When he's dialed in, Greene can miss a ton of bats, but when hitters make contact, it's usually hard-hit balls in the air.
While the Cubbies are having a season to forget, their offense has been solid -- currently sitting 14th in wOBA (.313). We project them to plate 5.05 runs tonight.
Steele survives by keeping the ball on the ground (50.3% ground-ball rate). He struggles to get swings and misses, though, putting up an 8.9% swinging-strike rate, and he's walking 10.1% of hitters. Our model forecasts Cincy to push across 4.45 runs.
In total, we have 9.50 runs being scored -- 2.0 runs over the total. We give the over a 58.5% chance to cash and mark it as a three-star bet, the strongest bet of the night.