MLB Betting Guide: Tuesday 6/14/22
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money – whether you are betting on the total, a runline, or a moneyline.
For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet. For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a three-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
Using our model as a guide, let's take a look at today's most appealing MLB lines from FanDuel Sportsbook.
Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All ratings are out of five stars. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankees
Rays +1.5 (-110) - 2 Stars
Whether Gerrit Cole's blowup in Minnesota was a one-off or a sign of things to come, our model loves the Rays' chances to keep it close.
Tampa has suffered some pretty drastic injuries with Wander Franco and Brandon Lowe on the shelf, so they haven't exactly mustered a ton of offense against right-handers (93 wRC+). It's all about Corey Kluber today.
The "Klubot" is returning to form. He's posted a 3.60 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA), and he's held right-handed bats to just a .744 OPS. He's put up enough resistance to turn back a Yankees lineup that also is fighting injuries -- and a one-game suspension to Josh Donaldson.
Overall, our model sees Tampa Bay ahead or within a run 59.2% of the time. Against standard 52.5% implied odds at -110, that's a two-star wager. There's value oozing from this runline with the game projected for just 7.5 total runs.
Tampa has been too pedestrian against righties for me to take the moneyline (+190), but it's also got a two-star thumbs up from the model.
Cleveland Guardians at Colorado Rockies
Guardians ML (-166) - 2 Stars
I'll admit, I had to shake off some "trap game" vibes to side with our model and take this one in Colorado.
The Guardians are sending ace Shane Bieber to the mound, and the lone concern with him today is the environment. Bieber's fastball velocity sits at just 90.7 miles per hour, and he throws his slider a majority of the time (41.2%). Breaking balls never seem to work as well at Coors Field, but if that's not an issue, the Rockies' lineup won't be (81 wRC+ against righties; fourth-worst in MLB).
Colorado will counter with Antonio Senzatela. The wizard in cleats has a decent 4.17 FIP at home this season despite a paltry 10.6% strikeout rate. Even if Senzatela is up to his usual trickery, the Rockies' bullpen also has the fourth-worst xFIP in baseball (4.34).
With such a pronounced advantage on the mound, it's shocking to see this moneyline at just -168 (62.5% implied odds). Our model expects the Guards to win this one 68.8% of the time.
Los Angeles Angels at Los Angeles Dodgers
Under 9.0 (-118) - 2 Stars
This year's Freeway Series gets underway tonight, and it's actually in Los Angeles at Dodger Stadium.
Even with two high-powered offenses in this contest, there's just not enough respect for tonight's two starters given this lofty 9.0-run total.
Tony Gonsolin might the Dodgers' ace at present with Walker Buehler and Clayton Kershaw on the shelf. Gonsolin has turned in a sleek 1.58 ERA, and a 3.65 xFIP leads one to believe it's at least somewhat legitimate. Gonsolin also has a 24.8% strikeout rate, and he'll draw an Angels offense that has the highest strikeout rate in MLB against right-handers (25.9%).
On the other side, Noah Syndergaard hasn't been as steady, but Syndergaard's 4.35 xFIP isn't terrible at all. He's been really dinged by two outings against the Rangers and Yankees where he failed to record eight outs before ceding at least five runs. Syndergaard twirled six innings of one-run ball last week against the potent Red Sox offense.
Our model believes this game stays at nine runs or fewer a whopping 63.8% of the time. Even against higher -118 odds (54.8% implied), it's still rated as a two-star lay.