3 MLB FanDuel Value Plays to Target on Tuesday 5/24/22
With production being highly variable on a night-to-night basis, daily fantasy baseball plays a bit differently than other sports.
As a result of this, the primary method of selecting hitters is to "stack" certain teams in good spots to produce. Most of the top stacks on a given day come with hefty salaries. In addition to that, a vast majority of pitchers with the upside to win tournaments are high-salaried hurlers.
Therefore, crushing your value plays can be the secret sauce to taking down a tournament. That could be a low-salaried pitcher piling up strikeouts, or it could be a low-salaried hitter swatting a long ball.
Which budget options stand out today on FanDuel?
Sonny Gray, SP, Minnesota Twins ($8,200)
This slate is littered with aces, but it's also littered with high-upside stacks lacking value.
The Dodgers, Yankees, Astros, Angels, and Braves are all on this slate in what could be defined as a "plus" spot. They're certainly not facing a top-shelf hurler. However, those stacks have a maximum of one bat under $3,000 in the heart of their order. That doesn't add up to affording Corbin Burnes.
However, there's one value pitcher who can keep up with Burnes, Zac Gallen, Dylan Cease, and the other top aces on this slate. It's Sonny Gray of the Twins.
Gray's 28.7% strikeout rate can at least hang in terms of upside with several of those guys. It'll be even better on Tuesday since Gray has a matchup with the lowly Detroit Tigers. With just a 73 wRC+ and 24.3% strikeout rate as a team against right-handed pitching, Detroit is neck-and-neck with Oakland for the worst MLB offense inside that split.
At $8,200, his salary goes a long way to fitting in top stacks that just might not be as popular because they can't fit with an ace.
Luis Arraez, 3B/2B, Minnesota Twins ($2,900)
The Tigers have only a 3.04 implied total against Gray, and that means 4.96 of the 8.0-run total is implied to belong to the home team.
The Twins draw Beau Brieske on the other side. The rookie has had a dreadful 2022 campaign that's resulted in a 5.44 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA) and a 42.0% hard-hit rate. He's just getting shelled.
Minnesota has plenty of bats that can take advantage of that, but only Luis Arraez sits under $3,000. That's a tremendous value considering Arraez -- usually at the top of the order -- has a .428 wOBA against right-handed pitching. He's on base early and often.
The difference between the Twins and those aforementioned stacks is that they can work with a top-shelf pitcher. Arraez, Max Kepler, Jorge Polanco, Gary Sanchez, and Nick Gordon can all be found at or below $3,200 if they find the right spot in Tuesday's order.
David Peralta, OF, Arizona Diamondbacks ($2,700)
If it's not broken, I'm not going to fix it.
Fresh off a seven-run outing against Zack Greinke, the Diamondbacks carry a 4.99 implied total into tonight's contest. It's not likely to mirror last night's shootout with Arizona starting Zac Gallen, though.
Still, the D-Backs can absolutely get after Kansas City starter Jon Heasley. Heasley's two ugly starts thus far have left him with a 7.27 SIERA and a 48.4% hard-hit rate allowed, and when he departs, he'll give way to the sixth-worst reliever xFIP (4.18) in baseball.
Once again, David Peralta is a green light in this matchup with a low-whiff lefty. He delivered 16.2 FanDuel points from yesterday's article, and that 2-for-4 effort at the dish only further increased his .840 OPS and .255 isolated power (ISO) against right-handed pitching this year.
The Snakes are the top stack of the day again when factoring in salary. With a lower-quality righty on the bump, Peralta, Christian Walker, Ketel Marte, Pavin Smith, and Josh Rojas all carry plus marks in that split, and none are above the $3,000 mark on FanDuel.
