FanDuel Daily Fantasy Baseball Helper: Tuesday 4/27/21
A hefty 13-game main slate awaits us on Tuesday evening. That means a whole lot of hurlers to sort through, but a handful stand out amongst the rest. Despite a disappointing night at the plate on Monday, the New York Yankees have the night's highest implied total.
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Let's check out the top options on tonight's main slate.
Lucas Giolito ($11,100): Lucas Giolito just didn't have it in his last start against Boston -- with his changeup specifically being the issue -- getting lit up for seven earned runs while recording just three outs. But it speaks to his prior dominance that his peripheral numbers remain strong with a 3.20 SIERA, 32.1% strikeout rate, and 8.6% walk rate. In addition to the recent shelling, a cut on his finger pushed his start back to today, adding some more uncertainty. And yet, despite all that, he's up against a Tigers team that owns an 88 wRC+ and 26.4% strikeout rate versus righties going back to last season and has a lowly 3.21 implied total. I'm willing to give Giolito a mulligan for last time in today's inviting matchup.
Max Scherzer ($12,000): This is a tough matchup for Mad Max against the Blue Jays, but he's also put up a vintage 2.81 SIERA, 35.9% strikeout rate, and 4.3% walk rate this season. The veteran right-hander has logged 109 and 106 pitches over his last starts, giving him a workload we're just not seeing as often these days. The salary and matchup clearly put Scherzer behind Giolito, but we shouldn't let either of those things deter us from rostering him in tournaments.
Cristian Javier ($9,400): It might surprise you that of all pitchers on the slate, Cristian Javier is the one who owns the best strikeout rate (36.4%). It isn't entirely a fluke, either, as he also has a 13.1% swinging-strike rate, and he produced a 25.2% strikeout rate in 2020. Javier's salary is on the rise, but his matchup is a good one in which to keep piling up those strikeouts because he's facing the Mariners, a team that holds a 25.1% strikeout rate versus right-handed pitching from 2020 onward.
New York Yankees: The Bronx Bombers flopped yesterday, but Matt Harvey's struggles typically come against lefties, so there was actually a path to failure for the Yankees' righty-heavy lineup. They may not have any excuses tonight, though, with Baltimore southpaw Bruce Zimmermann taking the mound. New York boasts the night's highest implied total (5.56).
Zimmermann is short on experience and has submitted a 4.83 SIERA and 16.7% strikeout rate through four 2021 starts. While we don't have much to go off of in terms of splits, he's been roasted by right-handed batters dating back to last season, posting a 5.77 xFIP across 21.1 innings in the split.
Against a low-strikeout lefty in Camden Yards, will the Yankees' bats finally bust out? Aaron Judge ($3,500) and Giancarlo Stanton ($3,700) top the wish list, of course, but everyone else is below $3,000 again, so we can roster guys like DJ LeMahieu ($3,000), Gleyber Torres ($2,500), and Gio Urshela ($2,400) for next to nothing.
Despite their struggles, the Yankees figure to still be fairly popular due to their matchup and salaries, so stacking the bottom of the order or doing a wrap-around stack could help differentiate your Yankees stacks.
San Diego Padres: Fresh off taking three out four against the Dodgers over the weekend, the Padres should keep up that momentum versus the Diamondbacks' Merrill Kelly. Not only is Kelly not getting strikeouts this year (13.7%), but he's giving up loads of hard contact, resulting in an ugly Baseball Savant page. Although quality of contact can fluctuate a lot for pitchers, this is nothing new for Kelly, so we can feel pretty confident that this is more on him than it is some fluke.
Of course, San Diego isn't exactly the team to help Kelly get back on track. The otherworldly Fernando Tatis Jr. ($4,400) is naturally your top choice, but even if you can't fit him in, Manny Machado ($3,300) is a great value, and Trent Grisham ($3,700) and Wil Myers ($2,700) are off to strong starts.
Chicago White Sox: Jose Urena has struggled with walks dating back to last season, and while he's improved that over his last two starts, he's still sitting on a 12.9% walk rate in 2021. Historically, his main issue has been getting out lefties, amassing a poor 5.52 xFIP, 12.0% strikeout rate, and 8.5% walk rate against them since the start of 2019.
And although Urena has performed pretty well versus righties this season -- outside of the walks -- he's never been much of a strikeout pitcher against them, either, so we can still feel good about Chicago's other top bats. Jose Abreu ($3,800) is always worth including, and Luis Robert ($3,000) and Yermin Mercedes ($3,100) offer some value, too.