5 Daily Fantasy Baseball Stacks for 8/7/20
In the world of daily baseball, stacks are often the backbone of the most successful -- and profitable -- lineups. Correlation is the key.
When an offense hangs runs in bunches, it means hitters are scoring runs and teammates hitting behind them are driving them in. By rostering stacks, you’re maximizing the fantasy scoring by essentially double-dipping on a run-scoring event.
This is your daily home for the top stacks on the daily fantasy baseball slate. Whether you’re looking to identify the projected highest-scoring stacks or contrarian stacks that can help you separate from the pack in GPPs when they explode, they’ll be thrown under the spotlight here.
Gamers who are numberFire premium members can throw these highlighted stacks into an optimized lineup using our DFS Sharpstack tool. The tool allows you to select the team and number of players from that team you’d like to include in your lineup. If you’re looking to identify other potentially high-scoring stacks beyond those featured in this space, check out our hitting heat map, a tool that provides valuable info such as implied total, park factor, and stats to identify the quality of the opposing pitcher.
Without further ado, let’s dive into today’s main slate’s featured stacks.
When looking for a pitcher to stack against, we want hurlers who don't get punchouts while also allowing a lot of hard contact. That's Jake Junis, and it makes the Minnesota Twins a great stacking option on Friday. As of Friday morning, Minnesota's implied total sits at 5.28, the second-best mark on the slate.
In 2019 Junis gave up a 42.6% hard-hit rate while generating just a 21.3% strikeout rate over 175 1/3 innings. Lefties rocked him for a .352 wOBA and 44.4% hard-hit rate. We don't need to limit our Twins stacks to left-handed hitters, though, as righties tagged Junis for a 40.7% hard-hit rate last season.
Max Kepler ($3,700), Jorge Polanco ($3,000) and Eddie Rosario ($3,100) are left-handed bats who should be at the top of Minnesota's lineup. They'll all likely see a good amount of ownership, however, as will the always potent Nelson Cruz ($4,100), who is a top-three stick today, per our model.
If you want some pieces of the Twins and wish to dodge ownership, you can roll with Josh Donaldson ($2,800), Jake Cave ($2,700), and Marwin Gonzalez ($2,500). Cave and Gonzalez will have the platoon advantage while Donaldson -- who hasn't played since July 31st -- could slip through the cracks due to his recent injury.
Los Angeles Dodgers
The Los Angeles Dodgers are the only team with a higher implied total than the Twins' clip as LA boasts a slate-best 5.43 implied total against Jeff Samardzija. Similar to the Twins, the Dodgers should be a popular option tonight, and lefties will be our preferred choice as the Shark gave up a 40.5% hard-hit rate and 47.2% fly-ball rate to lefty bats in 2019.
Well, wouldn't ya know -- the Dodgers have some great left-handed hitters. Cody Bellinger ($4,300) and Max Muncy ($3,900) are the pick of the litter, but Corey Seager ($3,700) and Joc Pederson ($3,100) are also superb options.
At a sky-high salary, Mookie Betts ($4,200) might go under-owned due to his recent injury, but he's worth a look if he's playing. Justin Turner ($3,200) is a way to get modestly priced exposure to the middle of the Dodgers' lineup, and he finished last season with a .363 wOBA and 47.6% hard-hit rate in righty-righty matchups.
It's a little scary to stack against Vincent Velasquez, because he gets a good amount of whiffs and can be lethal when he's at his best. But he's rarely at his best, and he gave up a 47.4% hard-hit rate and 44.1% fly-ball rate across 117 1/3 frames in 2019. He put up reverse splits last year and surrendered a 49.5% hard-hit rate and 47.2% fly-ball rate to righties, so we have a lot of flexibility with an Atlanta Braves stack.
Ronald Acuna ($4,000) and Freddie Freeman ($3,800) are the big boppers. Acuna amassed a 46.4% hard-hit rate last campaign in righty-righty matchups. Freeman had a .412 wOBA and 50.0% hard-hit rate last year against right-handers. In addition to those two, Dansby Swanson ($3,300) and Marcell Ozuna ($3,500) made up the Braves' top four in their last meeting with a righty.
New York Mets
The New York Mets get a home date with righty Sandy Alcantara, who owns a 5.21 SIERA over 246 1/3 career innings. While he doesn't give up gobs of juicy contact (34.8% career hard-hit rate), his career strikeout rate (18.9%) and walk rate (10.7%) are numbers we want to attack. With Alcantara, it's best to use lefties against him as he's decent versus right-handed sticks.
|Alcantara's 2019 Stats||Strikeout Rate||Hard-Hit Rate||Fly-Ball Rate||xFIP|
The Mets had three lefties in the top-four spots in the order on Wednesday, including Brandon Nimmo ($3,000), Michael Conforto ($2,800), and Dominic Smith ($2,500). Conforto should be a core piece to any Mets stack as he mauled righties to the tune of a .382 wOBA last year while also recording a 15.2% walk rate in the split. His wOBA against righties jumps to .415 when we look at only home games. He's a great point-per-dollar play.
There's a chance Jeff McNeil ($2,600) returns to the lineup today, and he would be a smashing play at his salary.
It's not a good matchup for Pete Alonso ($3,300), but that coupled with his slow start should give us the chance to get him at low-ish ownership. Alonso racked up a .385 wOBA, 40.3% hard-hit rate and 41.5% fly-ball rate in righty-righty clashes in 2019. J.D. Davis ($2,800) deserves mention, too, as he had a .371 wOBA against right-handers last season, and he should be in the meat of the lineup.
I love the Colorado Rockies as a contrarian stack today. While they won't be in Coors, the Rox need to be on our stacking radar thanks to a cushy matchup with Yusei Kikuchi. The southpaw was woeful last year as a rookie, struggling to a 5.17 SIERA and 16.1% strikeout rate. Righties got to him for a .374 wOBA, and lefties had a decent .340 wOBA.
If this game was in Coors, the Rockies would be a chalk stack, but they should go under-owned tonight.
Nolan Arenado ($3,800) and Trevor Story ($3,900) feast on left-handed pitching. On the road against southpaws last season, Arenado sported a .365 wOBA while Story's wOBA in the split was .395. Overall Story had a 50.4% hard-hit rate -- 50.8% on the road -- and 44.7% fly-ball rate with the platoon advantage. Story is the slate's number-two bat, per our model.
Matt Kemp ($2,800) was slotted fifth against a lefty on Thursday, and he's been good so far in 2020, boasting a .416 wOBA and 47.1% hard-hit rate through a small sample of 28 plate appearances. Back in 2018, his last full campaign, Kemp posted a .350 wOBA and 48.2% hard-hit rate against lefties. Righties Garrett Hampson ($2,400) and Chris Owings ($2,400) were in Thursday's lineup -- hitting seventh and eighth, respectively -- and there's a good chance they are in there again today.
We can also use lefties Charlie Blackmon ($3,600), David Dahl ($3,200) and Daniel Murphy ($2,700) as contrarian plays since Kikuchi has struggled in lefty-lefty matchups. Blackmon had a .388 wOBA and 41.4% hard-hit rate against southpaws in 2019. Dahl's wOBA in the split last year was .371. while Murphy's was .372.