FanDuel Single-Game Daily Fantasy Football Helper: Wild Card Sunday (Dolphins at Bills)
On FanDuel Sportsbook, the host Bills are 13.5-point favorites in a game with a 43.5-point total. That makes the implied score 28.5-15.0 in Buffalo's favor.
For those unfamiliar, single-game slates feature five flex spots with identical scoring to main slates. However, kickers are included in these contests, and there is an "MVP" roster slot. The MVP receives 1.5-times his total fantasy points, making this spot crucial.
Our Brandon Gdula has done a deep dive on single-game strategy, and we have projections for the single-game slate if you select the game from the slate tab. It's worth checking out both of those things before you make your lineups.
You don't need me to sell you on Allen; he's an elite dual-threat weapon. We all know that. The decision you have to make is whether or not you want to swallow the Allen chalk at MVP. Allen will likely lead the slate in scoring, but if he doesn't and you hit on the guy who does at your MVP slot, it'll give you a huge leg up on the field.
Stefon Diggs ($15,500) has the upside to be the slate's top scorer. While he's been held to single-digit FanDuel points in four of his last five games, he went for 19.9 FanDuel points in Week 18 and had 18.7 and 17.7 prior to his cold four-game run. It may take a big yardage day and two scores for Diggs to out-pace Allen, but that's within Diggs' range of outcomes. Our model has him scoring 15.0 FanDuel points, the second-most on the slate.
Tyreek Hill ($15,000) is a viable MVP on any single-game slate, and with Skylar Thompson ($12,500) under center, Hill isn't going to be a popular multiplier. We have to be at least somewhat interested whenever a player with Hill's game-breaking ability is going to fly under the radar at MVP, and Tyreek could rip off multiple big plays in any game -- no matter who his signal-caller is. With that said, he's obviously dinged by Thompson starting. We have Hill putting up 13.1 FanDuel points.
The only other player I'm considering at MVP on this slate is the aforementioned Thompson. Quarterbacks are always viable MVP picks, and Thompson has some quality weapons at his disposal in a game in which Miami should have to air it out to keep pace. I want to talk myself into getting weird and using him at MVP in some lineups because he's going to be an afterthought as a multiplier, but I just can't get there in this difficult matchup. He projects for 12.2 FanDuel points, per our algorithm.
Jeff Wilson ($10,000) should see a lot of work with Raheem Mostert likely out, and our model projects him as the slate's number-two point-per-dollar play. Volume typically trumps matchup for backs, and the salary is easy to like. Miami should feed him for as long as they can justify running the ball.
There are reasons to fade Wilson if you want to. Starting a third-string quarterback on the road against what our metrics have as the league's sixth-best D, Miami's offense may completely faceplant. Plus, with the Dolphins a 13.5-point 'dog, the running game could get left for dead if Buffalo jumps out to a huge lead. I also think there's a chance Salvon Ahmed ($7,000) gets in on a decent number of snaps. It's enough to make me wary of Wilson, especially if it looks like he'll be super popular.
Jaylen Waddle ($13,500) is tough to get excited about. He's been targeted more than six times in a game just once over his previous six outings. Among the 10 highest-salaried players on the slate, he projects as the worst point-per-dollar play (by a good distance), per our algorithm. All of that may keep the masses away, though, and Waddle has the ability to take any touch to the house.
On the Buffalo side, the pendulum swung in favor of James Cook ($8,000) over Devin Singletary ($10,500) last week in this hard-to-predict backfield. Cook played 56% of the snaps in Week 18, compared to a 41% clip for Singletary. Game script should favor the Bills' ground game, so they're both fine options.
Our model projects them fairly evenly -- 10.1 FanDuel points for Cook and 9.9 for Singletary -- so given their salaries, Cook looks like the way better choice on a point-per-dollar basis. He's actually the second-best point-per-dollar play of the slate by our numbers. Don't sleep on Singletary, though. He appeared to be losing his grip on the lead job a few times in the second half of the season only to regain the upper hand, and his +135 anytime touchdown odds are better than Cook's +210 mark.
After Diggs, it's Dawson Knox ($8,500) and Gabriel Davis ($11,000) in the passing game. Davis can be a slate-winning piece on a single-gamer, but his upside has disappeared of late, as he's failed to surpass 10.0 FanDuel points in seven straight. Knox's salary is helpful, and he's found paydirt in four consecutive games. But he has fewer than 40 yards in three of those four outings, although the lone exception was a 98-yard day against Miami.
With no weather issues expected, Tyler Bass ($9,000) is projecting well -- much better than Jason Sanders ($8,500) -- as we forecast him to score 10.1 FanDuel points. Outside of Cook, Bass owns our model's best point-per-dollar projection among those with a four-digit salary.
This profiles as a smash spot for the Buffalo D/ST ($9,500). In 105 pass attempts this season, Thompson has tossed three picks and taken six sacks. With Miami likely to be forced into a pass-happy gameplan, the Bills' defense could feast.