5 NFL FanDuel Value Plays to Target in Week 16
There isn't a better starting point for unearthing values for FanDuel NFL contests than numberFire's projections tool.
Users can easily view the entire player pool or sort by position to see statistical projections for all players. Additionally, the column for value provides a sortable way to view which players offer the most bang for your buck, showing users the player's points per thousand dollars of salary.
But, of course, factors such as a team's implied total and the game's spread are integral for decision-making. Fortunately, you can peruse the heat map for that information and a wealth of other goodies.
Nevertheless, other considerations help inform my selection. So, this is your home for finding the five FanDuel values I'm targeting weekly for their main slate. Check this week's picks below.
Daniel Jones, QB, Giants ($7,400)
Weather impacts nearly the entire NFL landscape on Saturday, but the dome in Minnesota isn't one of those spots.
As a result, Daniel Jones will be my cash-game and single-entry quarterback with many studs in cold weather and dealing with strong winds. Jones isn't perfect, but this spot sets up well for him The highest game total on the slate (48.0) is this one, and it's got a tight, 3.5-point spread as it should. The Vikes make nothing easy.
Minnesota is absolutely a pass funnel. They're numberFire's second-best overall rush defense when adjusting for schedule, which could put far more on Jones' shoulders than Saquon Barkley's. Overall, that's been more than acceptable; the Vikings are ceding the sixth-most FanDuel points per game to quarterbacks.
We know Danny Dimes also brings some juice with his legs, posting over 50 rushing yards in a game on five separate occasions this year. He's low-salaried access to a big day in both domains.
Kenneth Walker III, RB, Seahawks ($6,900)
We know he's an excellent player. He's 18th among all backs (minimum 10.0 carries per game) in rushing yards over expectation per contest. This game couldn't be set up better for a heavy dose of that.
The Chiefs are numberFire's 8th-worst defense overall, and they're 14th-worst against the rush. Their per-game numbers allowed to running backs are obviously suppressed due to the number of negative scripts that Patrick Mahomes will put teams into, but there shouldn't be a gigantic offensive outburst in poor weather on Saturday.
Rather, Seattle -- as 10.0-point road underdogs -- might try to keep Mahomes off the field with KW3. He is numberFire's best-projected running back below $7,000 at present for good reason.
Terrace Marshall Jr, WR, Panthers ($5,600)
The former second-rounder out of Louisiana State is talented, and he's had plenty of opportunity opposite Moore. Specifically, since Sam Darnold took over three games ago, Marshall has run 86.1% of the routes to Moore's 95.8%.
This run-heavy Panthers offense doesn't offer a ton of looks. Marshall's 2.3 targets per game in that time are amazingly still good enough for a 12.5% share. I still think we could squeeze one big play or a double-digit day out of him in this matchup.
The Lions are numberFire's third-worst rush defense and fourth-worst pass defense. They're terrible in all facets. Outside of Moore, no Panther is on the field more than Marshall with opportunities to score. Plus, as 2.5-point underdogs, Carolina might face a negative script that forces more effort from the passing game.
Relative to other games, the 10-mile-per-hour winds in Charlotte might as well be a dome. Marshall might have a banner day in a sublime matchup.
Hunter Henry, TE, Patriots ($5,000)
Speaking of teams who don't throw often, the New England Patriots would rather not. They might be forced to on Sunday.
The Bengals are in town, and we know Joe Burrow and company can put up points. The Pats are three-point 'dogs at present. If they fall behind, Mac Jones might have the most room to throw in the middle of the field -- especially to Hunter Henry.
Cincinnati is our 10th-best passing defense, but for whatever reason, they've been a bit leaky to tight ends. They've allowed the 6th-most targets and 11th-most yards to the position. Interestingly, they might be underrated as a matchup by the luck of ceding only three touchdowns to tight ends all year.
Henry can change that. Playing 76.2% of the snaps overall, he's seen seven redzone targets this year and caught just two touchdowns. Some New England fans would remind you it should be three. He's due for positive regression in that area, and Cincy should be giving up more scores allowing that type of target volume.
The Bengals are especially tough on wideouts (10th-fewest FanDuel points allowed to the position), so I'll bring back any member of the Stripes with Henry.
Atlanta D/ST, DEF, Falcons ($3,400)
The bottom of the defensive barrel got much clearer on Thursday.
The Ravens announced Tyler Huntley would start a third straight contest, and it's been great news for the opposing defense when that's been the case. In Huntley's three games of significant action (including relief duty against Denver), the opposing D/ST has averaged 10.3 fantasy points per game.
He's been sacked six times, picked off twice, and fumbled twice. Baltimore's offense has been dreadful during this time, too. They've totaled just 26 offensive points in three games.
The Atlanta D/ST hasn't gotten much pressure (28% rate; tied for sixth-worst in the NFL), but they're also due regression from just a 13% sack rate. Huntley will take those.