Week 13 Expert Betting Picks and Predictions
Each and every week throughout the NFL season, the experts at numberFire will bring you their three favorite bets on the board -- one side, one total, and one player prop. They'll share some insight into one of their picks to provide context for their reasoning.
For this article, we are using the odds provided at FanDuel Sportsbook to pinpoint spots where value can be had this week.
Note: Betting lines and our player projections may change after this article is published.
Brandon Gdula, Senior Managing Editor
Side: Philadelphia Eagles -4.5 (-114)
Player Prop: Travis Etienne Over 70.5 Rushing Yards (-114)
In games during which Travis Etienne has played at least half of the Jaguars' snaps, he has rushed for an average of 82.0 yards with a per-carry average of 1.56 yards over expectation (via NextGenStats). The Detroit Lions allow 0.40 yards over expected per carry and rank 27th in rushing success rate allowed to backs. Etienne was cleared to return last week but didn't and is deemed good to go for this matchup, one that should feature a ton of offense.
Jim Sannes, Senior Writer and Analyst
Side: New York Giants +1.5 (-106)
I'd prefer to go with the Giants' moneyline at +108, but this is Week 13's biggest value by my numbers regardless. Both of my models have the Giants favored straight up over Washington. Although Washington has played well, they've done so against poor competition outside of the Philadelphia Eagles game. They've underperformed expectations when throwing on early downs in three of their past four games, with the lone exception being against the Houston Texans. The Giants are slumping now, but the offensive line is getting healthier. They should be favored at home.
Player Prop: Cordarrelle Patterson Over 49.5 Rushing Yards (-114)
Austan Kas, Editor
Side: Philadelphia Eagles -4.5 (-114)
Player Prop: Drake London Over 36.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
Drake London has gone for 37-plus yards only once in his past six games, and it was a 38-yard effort, but I think he can have a good outing against the Pittsburgh Steelers. Pittsburgh has given up the fifth-most receiving yards to wideouts. It's been their soft spot all year. London is the clear top option in the Falcons' passing game with Kyle Pitts out, and our model projects him for 47.0 receiving yards on Sunday.
Kenyatta Storin, Editor
Side: New York Jets +3.0 (-114)
This game features two of the league's worst defenses, so the only question is whether the lowly Texans can put up enough of a fight to help this total go over. Luckily for them, Cleveland ranks 31st in schedule-adjusted rush defense, per numberFire's metrics, so Houston should be able to lean on running back Dameon Pierce, one of the lone bright spots in a struggling offense. The debut of Deshaun Watson also figures to give the Browns' offense a boost on the other side, as well.
Player Prop: Trevor Lawrence Over 247.5 Passing Yards (-114)
Tom Vecchio, Editor
Side: Los Angeles Chargers +1 (-112)
Player Prop: Trevor Lawrence Over 33.5 Passing Attempts (-114)
Lawrence is averaging 35 passing attempts per game this season, but that doesn't tell the entire story. If we look at his 11 games this season, Lawrence has two clear outliers where he had 22 and 23 passing attempts. Those are noticeably different, as in every other game, he has at least 30 passing attempts. If we remove those two outliers from his game logs, Lawrence is averaging 37.7 passing attempts in the other nine games. It also helps that the Lions' defense is horrible against the pass, allowing the sixth-most (2,859) passing yards this season.
Austin Swaim, Editor
Side: San Francisco 49ers -3.5 (-118)
Player Prop: Jared Goff Over 240.5 Passing Yards (-114)
The Jaguars are numberFire's fifth-worst passing defense, but they're also numberFire's seventh-best rush defense. That has funneled work to passing games against Jacksonville, and they've ceded an average of 280.3 yards to opposing passers in the past three weeks. Goff is projected for 255.8 yards by our model this weekend, and I wrote him up over 275 yards in my bold predictions column. With this line in the 240s, there's plenty of value here if this number rises up until kickoff.