4 NFL Player Prop Bets for the Thanksgiving Slate
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up within the betting market to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy football.
Here we'll focus on utilizing our projections and a slew of other tools and simulations to help make money betting player props. For this article, we are using the odds provided at FanDuel Sportsbook to pinpoint spots where value can be had this week.
The prop-betting experience on FanDuel Sportsbook is getting even more fun. You can track your player props with real-time updates and place in-game props with ease.
Each and every week I'll be bringing separate prop bets articles for Monday Night Football, Thursday Night Football, and the Sunday main slate.
Note: Betting lines and our player projections may change after this article is published.
Dawson Knox Any Time Touchdown (+200)
Dawson Knox Over 37.5 Receiving Yards (-113)
A high over/under is always a good sign when we are looking for player props, and the ones we target should reflect that total. The Bills are carrying a slate-high 32.00 implied team total, and given how strong their offense has been this season -- the second-most points scored -- it won't be a surprise to see them hit or exceed that mark.
When it comes to the defensive matchup for individual players, Dawson Knox has a very favorable one that puts him in play for both a touchdown and to hit the over on 37.5 receiving yards.
This season, the Lions have allowed the fifth-most (596) receiving yards and the second-most (7) touchdowns to opposing tight ends, making this an elite spot for Knox. He plays a modest but consistent role in the Bills' passing offense, and with this matchup, he should excel.
To this point in the season, Knox has a 12.5% target share, 11.0% air yards share, 79.4% snap rate, 70.5% route rate, and 13.7% red zone target share. When a passing offense has Stefon Diggs and Gabriel Davis, they are going to be the primary options, but Knox has carved out a nice role for himself.
That role has led to Knox posting a 0.65 Receiving Net Expected Points (NEP) per target, which is the 11th-best among tight ends with at least 25 targets. All of this should lead to Knox hitting the over on his 37.5 receiving prop while being in a great spot to find the end zone.
Dak Prescott Under 32.5 Passing Attempts (-114)
A classic NFC East rivalry adds another chapter on Thanksgiving as the Dallas Cowboys host the Giants in what could be a lopsided game. The Cowboys are 10.0-point favorites in a game with a modest over/under of 45.5 points. The under on passing attempts is no knock against Prescott's ability; it's a matter of the game environment and the team's offensive tendencies.
With the Cowboys being booked as two-score favorites, they should be out in front of the Giants early and in a spot where they don't need to pass the ball. This would be in line with what we've seen from Dallas this season, and that has led to Prescot posting fewer than 30 passing attempts in four of his five games.
The only game Prescott went over 30 passing attempts was just a few weeks ago against the Green Bay Packers, a game which went to overtime.
When we look at the Cowboys' offense overall, they come in with a 52.49% pass play percentage, which is 26th in the league. They are still a clear run-first team and are set on handing the ball to both Tony Pollard and Ezekiel Elliott early and often.
Between the large spread and the offensive play-calling, this should lead to Prescott hitting the under on his prop this week.
K.J. Osborn Under 23.5 Receiving Yards (-113)
Finally, we should side with under 23.5 receiving yards for K.J. Osborn.
This is a rather low number and an unexciting prop, but it makes a ton of sense. The Minnesota Vikings are slight 2.5-point home favorites against the New England Patriots, and while this game has the closest spread on the Thanksgiving slate, it also features the lowest total (42.5).
We could be in for a lack of offense in this game, and the Vikings have a tough test against the Patriots' pass defense. This season, the Patriots have allowed the fifth-fewest (1,350) receiving yards to opposing wide receivers, putting the clamps on them all year.
Osborn plays a modest role for the Vikings with a 13.0% target share, 15.4% air yards share, 76.2% snap rate, and 80.9% route rate. After the addition of T.J. Hockenson to their offense, Osborn has the fourth-highest target share, leaving him with a lack of opportunities.
He's been under this 23.5 mark in four of his last five games, and with a very tough matchup ahead, the under is the spot to look.