4 NFL FanDuel Stacks for Week 9
Stacks are usually the backbone of the best FanDuel lineups, especially in tournaments. Brandon Gdula's piece examining hit rates and correlation for stacks is a must-read article whether you're already familiar with stacking or new to the concept.
This piece will lay out my favorite weekly stacks. So, read on to see the stacks I'm firing up this week.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Trevor Lawrence ($6,800) and Christian Kirk ($6,300)
Bring-back Option: Josh Jacobs ($8,800)
Lawrence's performance has been a rollercoaster ride this year. The blemishes have been alarming, but the highs have been DFS-friendly. The second-year quarterback has 18.5, 18.7, 24.9, and 25.18 FanDuel points in games this year. Unfortunately, Lawrence scored only 8.82 FanDuel points last week and 6.66 against the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 4.
This is a get-right spot for a ceiling performance from Lawrence after last week's challenging matchup against the Denver Broncos' elite pass defense. In fact, the Broncos have the best pass defense in our team power rankings. The Las Vegas Raiders are at the other end of the spectrum, ranking as the third-worst pass defense by our metrics.
Lawrence can shine this week, and our projection algorithm agrees. The numberFire DFS projections have Lawrence as the QB9 on FanDuel's main slate in Week 9. However, among quarterbacks, he has the sixth-highest value score -- the measure of FanDuel points per $1,000 of salary -- making him an attractive bargain option.
Kirk is the most desirable pass-catching option to stack with Lawrence. First, the Raiders have allowed 21 completions on 41 attempts (51.2 percent) for 576 yards, three touchdowns, and two interceptions on passes that traveled at least 15 air yards. Meanwhile, according to Sports Info Solutions (SIS), Kirk has a 9.4-yard average depth of target (aDOT). Second, Kirk has eight receptions on 13 targets of at least 15 air yards for 245 yards.
The matchup with the Raiders is also a plus for Kirk as a slot wideout. According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), Kirk has played 73.9 percent of his passing snaps in the slot. He's also had a rock-solid 1.65 yards per route run (Y/RR) from the slot. Meanwhile, per PFF, players aligned in the slot have averaged 5.9 receptions and 63.1 receiving yards per game against the Raiders.
Kirk has had a few disappointing games this year, but he's reached at least 60 yards five times and scored a touchdown in one of the three outlier games. And according to Pro Football Reference, Kirk averages 4.4 receptions and 62.3 receiving yards per game and has scored four touchdowns. Finally, he has the fourth-highest value score among wideouts this week.
Detroit Lions-Green Bay Packers
Amon-Ra St. Brown ($7,100) and Aaron Jones ($7,800)
St. Brown is a baller, and the only thing that's slowed his roll this year is an ankle injury and an early exit because of exhibiting ataxia. In four games in which ARSB didn't enter with an injury designation or leave early because of ataxia, he has 42 targets, 30 receptions, 322 receiving yards, 2.32 Y/RR, three touchdowns, and 68 rushing yards.
ARSB should also mostly avoid Jaire Alexander. The second-year wideout has played 61 percent of his passing snaps in the slot in his healthy games, and Alexander has aligned in the slot for only 15 snaps this year. ARSB also erupted for eight receptions, 109 receiving yards, 12 rushing yards, and one touchdown in Week 18 against the Green Bay Packers last year. The Packers didn't have much to play for in that last meeting. So, the stats should be taken with a grain of salt. ARSB is a stud, though.
He's also a darling in our projections. We project ARSB as the WR7, with the second-highest value score at the position. He's an excellent selection in this game stack.
Jones is the integral piece to get from the Packers. The Detroit Lions are a tire fire when defending the run, and I'm using defending loosely. Detroit is the worst run defense by our measure. In addition, according to Pro Football Reference, running backs average 122.9 rushing yards per game and 5.2 yards per carry against the Lions.
Jones is capable of exploiting the Lions' struggles defending the run. He averages 71.9 rushing yards per game at a blistering 5.9 yards per attempt. Jones has busted off 110, 132, and 143 rushing yards in games this year, with the biggest effort coming in his most recent game.
Jones' rushing prowess is also only part of the story. The well-rounded back also averages 3.8 receptions and 23.8 receiving yards per game. Jones has been in lockstep with Aaron Rodgers lately, earning a target on one-third of his routes since Week 6.
The context is also mouthwatering for Jones. Green Bay has the second-highest implied total (26.50 points) on the main slate and is favored by 3.5 points. Jones checks a ton of boxes, and he's projected as the RB5 with the third-highest value score among his peers.
Washington Commanders-Minnesota Vikings
Antonio Gibson ($6,100) and Justin Jefferson ($9,000)
The runway is clear for Gibson to handle passing down work for the Washington Commanders this week, with J.D. McKissic ruled out for Week 9. The third-year back was already cooking with Taylor Heinicke, earning a target on an absurd 44 percent of his routes in Heinicke's two starts.
According to PFF, Gibson is tied for fifth in receptions (10), sixth in receiving yards (76), tied for second in yards per route run (3.04 Y/RR), and tied for first in touchdown receptions (two) among running backs who've been targeted at least five times since Week 7. Additionally, McKissic had seven targets, three receptions, and 14 receiving yards in Heinicke's starts, leaving some opportunities behind for Gibson to soak up.
The matchup is dreamy for Gibson's pass-catching chops. According to Football Outsiders, running backs average the eighth-most receiving yards per game (41.7) against the Minnesota Vikings this season. Running backs have also averaged 5.4 receptions and 76.1 rushing yards per game against Minnesota. So, the Vikings have been stout against running backs on the ground. Still, Gibson can add to his fantasy appeal by chipping in as a runner as the complement to rookie banger Brian Robinson. Gibson's superiority as the pass-catching option and the path of less resistance for Washington's running backs through the air are the reasons to like Gibson this week, though.
Jefferson is also primed for success. We rank the Commanders as the ninth-worst defense against the pass. Top wideouts have also carved them up. No. 1 wide receivers average the eighth-most receiving yards per game (81.4) against Washington.
And, obviously, Jefferson is an elite No. 1 receiver by any measure. According to SIS, he's eighth in target share (28.4 percent). The third-year receiver is also highly efficient, ranking fifth in yards per route run (2.68 Y/RR) among wideouts targeted at least 30 times this year. As a result, Jefferson is fifth in receptions per game (7.4) and third in receiving yards per game (107.4).
Minnesota's stud wideout is projected as the WR3 on the main slate. His salary is tied for the highest among wideouts. Fortunately, Gibson's low salary drags this game stack's total salary to a more palatable cap-friendly number.
Chicago Bears-Miami Dolphins
Darnell Mooney ($6,100) and Tyreek Hill ($8,700)
I highlighted Mooney as a value earlier this week and don't have anything to add to my previous analysis. So, readers are encouraged to check out 5 NFL FanDuel Value Plays to Target in Week 9 for Mooney's write-up.
Hil is the A side of this game stack. The speed merchant has been unreal this year. Hil is second in receptions per game (8.6) and first in receiving yards per game (120.1). He's also thrived with Tua Tagovailoa. Hill has a jaw-dropping 33 percent target share on Tua's 186 passes this year. Further, Hill's numbers across Tua's five and a half games amount to per-game averages of eight receptions, 114.2 receiving yards, and 139.1 air yards per game, and he's caught two touchdowns from the lefty.
The matchup is also good for his field-stretching ability. The Bears have allowed 19 completions on 36 attempts that traveled at least 15 air yards this year for 536 yards, two touchdowns, and three interceptions.
The numberFire projection algorithm expects big things from Hill this week, projecting him as the WR1 with the highest value score among wide receivers. The sky's the limit for Cheetah every week, and he's an outstanding choice in all game types this week.
Joshua Shepardson is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Joshua Shepardson also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username bchad50. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his/her personal views, he/she may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his/her personal account. The views expressed in his/her articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.
