5 NFL FanDuel Value Plays to Target in Week 9
There isn't a better starting point for unearthing values for FanDuel NFL contests than numberFire's projections tool.
Users can easily view the entire player pool or sort by position to see statistical projections for all players. Additionally, the column for value provides a sortable way to view which players offer the most bang for your buck, showing users the player's points per thousand dollars of salary.
But, of course, factors such as a team's implied total and the game's spread are integral for decision-making. Fortunately, you can peruse the heat map for that information and a wealth of other goodies.
Nevertheless, other considerations help inform my selection. So, this is your home for finding the five FanDuel values I'm targeting weekly for their main slate. Check this week's picks below.
Justin Fields, QB, Chicago Bears ($7,400)
Justin Fields has passed for more than 200 yards only once in 2022. Yet, it doesn't matter now that he's cranking it up on the ground. The second-year quarterback has rushed for at least 60 yards in three straight, bested 80 yards twice, and he's reached paydirt as a runner twice in the last three weeks. Fields has also tossed five touchdowns versus just two interceptions since Week 5.
In his last four games, Fields has averaged 182 passing yards and 69.25 rushing yards per game, passing for five touchdowns and rushing for two. It hasn't been a conventional path to FanDuel scoring, but it's effective.
The matchup is dreamy for Fields this week. According to Pro Football Reference, the Miami Dolphins have allowed the seventh-most passing yards per game (262.1) and are tied for the eighth-most touchdown passes (12) allowed. In addition, they rank poorly in our team power rankings as the fourth-worst pass defense.
The matchup is also tasty for Fields on the ground. Per Pro Football Reference, quarterbacks have gashed the Dolphins for the fifth-most rushing yards (192). Quarterbacks average 24 rushing yards per game and 5.64 yards per attempt against Miami and have punched in two touchdowns on the ground.
Jonathan Taylor, RB, Indianapolis Colts ($6,800)
It's unfathomable to see Jonathan Taylor's salary below $7,000 on FanDuel. He's a screaming value even though he's attached to the lowest implied total (17.00) on this week's main slate. The Indianapolis Colts are 5.5-point underdogs, too. The context is lousy for Taylor.
Regardless, Taylor is still a stud. He's also still demonstrated juice since returning from his ankle injury. According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), since Week 7, Taylor is 12th in rushing yards (134), 13th in yards per attempt (5.2), 14th in yards after contact per attempt (3.35 YCO/A), and tied for missed tackles forced (8 MTF) out of 40 running backs who've attempted at least 10 rushes.
Taylor's a legitimate every-down running back, as well, an oddity for a player in his salary range. According to PFF, Taylor ran 17 routes compared to 12 for Nyheim Hines in Week 8. He could soak up more receiving work since Indy traded Hines to the Buffalo Bills.
It was also encouraging that second-year quarterback Sam Ehlinger targeted his running backs on 3 of 23 passes in his first NFL start. The targets were enough to amount to a 13.0 percent target share. Per Sports Info Solutions (SIS), only nine running backs have a target share of at least 13.0 percent this season.
Finally, Taylor is a standout in our DFS projections. He is projected as the RB5 and has the slate's highest value score -- the measure of FanDuel points per $1,000 of salary -- among running backs.
Darnell Mooney, WR, Chicago Bears ($6,100)
This isn't the stacking article, but Darnell Mooney is an excellent stacking selection with Fields. The third-year receiver has come on strong lately, as he has at least 52 receiving yards in his last five games. Since Week 4, Mooney has averaged 6.6 targets, 4.2 receptions, and 67.4 receiving yards per game.
Unfortunately, he has been allergic to the end zone and hasn't scored a touchdown this year. Mooney's target volume has been tasty, though. According to SIS, he has the ninth-highest target share (28.2 percent) in 2022.
The matchup is rock-solid, as well. As I noted above, the Dolphins have the fourth-worst pass defense by our metrics. And, according to Football Outsiders, they've allowed 66.3 receiving yards per game to No. 1 wide receivers, only a pinch lower than the league average (69.9).
Mooney's usage as a lid-lifting wideout might play well in this matchup, too. According to SIS, Mooney has an average depth of target of 14.0 yards downfield. Conversely, the Dolphins have allowed 25 completions on 61 pass attempts (41 percent) that traveled at least 15 air yards for 808 yards, one touchdown, and two interceptions. Miami hasn't been a trainwreck against deep passes, but they haven't been impenetrable, either.
As a result, I'm intrigued by Mooney as a value attached to an offense finding its footing lately.
Terrace Marshall, WR, Carolina Panthers ($5,400)
Terrace Marshall Jr.'s stats won't knock your socks off, but the second-year wideout was a second-round pick with fans in the draft-pundit community. He's had glimmers of hope since P.J. Walker took the reigns. In Week 8, Marshall had career highs of 9 targets and 87 receiving yards and tied his previous high for receptions (4).
Per PFF, since Week 7, Marshall is second on the Carolina Panthers in routes (59), targets (12), receptions (6), and receiving yards (118). Marshall was also targeted on a stellar 20.3 percent of his routes in the previous two weeks, popping up to a 25 percent rate in Week 8.
Marshall also had an end zone target but couldn't get both feet in bounds when securing the grab. Still, the target was encouraging for Walker's trust for him in scoring territory.
Gamers will understandably be excited about D.J. Moore this week. However, Marshall shouldn't be overlooked as a pivot and value.
Dawson Knox, TE, Buffalo Bills ($5,100)
The tight end position is a dumpster fire. Thus, sometimes it pays off to chase tight ends in elite offenses.
Dawson Knox is a desirable choice by that methodology. The Bills have the highest implied total (30.00) on this week's main slate. Their total is 3.5 points higher than the second-highest mark.
Knox can also hang his hat on his role in Buffalo's offense and the matchup. Knox is third on the Bills in routes (149) in the five games he's played this year. He's also reclaimed a meaningful red-zone role, scoring a touchdown in each of the last two games on 14-yard and 1-yard receptions.
Additionally, as I already stated, the matchup is good. The New York Jets allow the 10th-most receiving yards per game (58.1). They're also tied for the fourth-most receptions (46) yielded to the position.
Gang Green hasn't allowed a touchdown to a tight end this year, so it's not a perfect matchup. But Buffalo's implied total is positive for the touchdown chances of any offensive players, Knox included.
Joshua Shepardson is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Joshua Shepardson also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username bchad50. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his/her personal views, he/she may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his/her personal account. The views expressed in his/her articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.