5 NFL FanDuel Value Plays to Target in Week 8
There isn't a better starting point for unearthing values for FanDuel NFL contests than numberFire's projections tool.
Users can easily view the entire player pool or sort by position to see statistical projections for all players. Additionally, the column for value provides a sortable way to view which players offer the most bang for your buck, showing users the player's point-per thousand dollars of salary.
But, of course, factors such as a team's implied total and the game's spread are integral for decision-making. Fortunately, you can peruse the Heat Map for that information and a wealth of other goodies.
Nevertheless, other considerations help inform my selection. So, this is your home for finding the five FanDuel values I'm targeting weekly for their main slate. Check this week's picks below.
Raheem Mostert, RB, Miami Dolpins ($6,800)
The veteran running back is also the team's preferred passing-down back. According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), Mostert has run 74 routes, and Chase Edmonds has run only 39. So, Mostert is game-script-proof and has an elevated ceiling due to his do-it-all ability. Miami's lead runner has had more than 100 scrimmage yards in two of his last three games, scoring a touchdown in both yardage outbursts.
Mostert's outlook is excellent in a probable good game script and dreamy matchup. First, the Dolphins are 3.5-point favorites and have the highest-implied total (27.50 points) on FanDuel's main slate. Second, we rank the Detroit Lions last in rush defense in our team power rankings.
As a result, Mostert is projected as the RB10 with the fifth-highest value score -- the measure of FanDuel points per $1,000 of salary. Mostert is an excellent selection in all game types.
Wan'Dale Robinson, WR, New York Giants ($5,900)
Wan'Dale Robinson had the most extensive usage of his rookie campaign in Week 7. He played 67.14 percent of the New York Giants' snaps and ran a season-high 29 routes, the second-most among Big Blue's receivers. Robinson parlayed his playing time into six receptions for 50 yards on eight targets.
Where the G-Men use Robinson is optimal for this week's matchup. According to PFF, Robinson played 28 of 35 passing snaps aligned in the slot. He should have a tasty matchup from the slot in Week 8. Per PFF, among 32 cornerbacks and safeties who've played at least 70 coverage snaps in the slot, Coby Bryant has allowed the ninth-most receiving yards (204) and sixth-highest quarterback rating (118.1).
Moreover, the Seattle Seahawks are lousy at defending the pass. By our metrics, they're the fourth-worst pass defense.
Robinson has an excellent opportunity to build on promising showings in Week 6 and Week 7.
Rondale Moore, WR, Arizona Cardinals ($5,500)
In Week 4, he had only three receptions for 11 yards, playing 24 passing snaps aligned wide and 13 from the slot. Then, Moore had one reception for 31 yards in Week 7, playing six passing snaps in the slot and 27 aligned wide. However, in Week 5 and Week 6, the second-year wideout played 73 passing snaps from the slot and 12 out wide and thrived, producing 13 receptions and 117 yards on 18 targets.
Sadly, he was most recently miscast on the perimeter by head coach Kliff Kingsbury. But there's a reason for optimism about Moore kicking back into the slot this week. The Cardinals acquired Robbie Anderson in a trade last Monday, and they played on Thursday. So, Anderson didn't have long to acclimate himself to the offense and playbook and was limited to only eight passing snaps. After the extended time between Thursday's contest and this week's game on Sunday, Anderson will presumably play more snaps.
Anderson curiously played five of his eight passing snaps in the slot in Week 7. However, he's aligned wide for 74.2 percent of his passing snaps in his career. As a result, Anderson is likely a better fit on the perimeter.
The matchup is good for the Cards' passing attack. The Minnesota Vikings are the eighth-worst pass defense by our measure. They also have a coverage liability in the slot. Chandon Sullivan is tied for the eighth-highest yards per coverage snap (1.87) from the slot, has coughed up the fourth-highest quarterback rating (130.2), and yielded the most receiving yards (347) and yards after the catch (229) out of 32 cornerbacks and safeties who've played at least 70 coverage snaps in the slot.
Moore can eat Sullivan alive if he predominantly plays in the slot. The 22-year-old wideout's game is built on yards after the catch. And as I highlighted above, no slot corner has coughed up more of that than Sullivan has.
Irv Smith, TE, Minnesota Vikings ($5,000)
Irv Smith Jr. hasn't lit the world on fire this year. Still, he's been a rock-solid contributor at a position that lacks depth.
Smith has had exactly four receptions in back-to-back games and snagged at least three receptions in four of his last five games. He's also cleared 30 receiving yards in three of his previous five games, scoring a touchdown in one of the outlier games.
Moreover, Smith has a meaningful role in Minnesota's passing attack. Since Week 4, he's fourth on the Vikings in routes (77) and third in all of targets (13), receptions (11), and receiving yards (72). Obviously, Smith's totals have been underwhelming as Minnesota's third option.
Still, Smith has an opportunity to carve out a more prominent role in a delectable matchup. According to Football Outsiders, the Cardinals have allowed the second-most receiving yards per game (71.9) to tight ends. Per Pro Football Reference, Arizona is tied for the most touchdowns (six) coughed up to the position.
Because of the tasty matchup, Smith is my favorite punt tight end this week.
Washington D/ST ($3,400)
No, Washington's defense hasn't been elite. Still, the Commanders have done an excellent job pressuring and sacking quarterbacks. According to Pro Football Reference, Washington is tied for the seventh-most sacks (19) and has the fifth-highest pressure rate (26.2 percent) this year. Their ability to get after quarterbacks should pay dividends against Ehlinger.
Per PFF, the second-year quarterback was sacked 25 times in 10 games during his senior season in college. In addition, he was slow to get the ball out, averaging 3.03 seconds to throw. Per PFF, only four quarterbacks out of 34 who've dropped back at least 120 times in the NFL this year have taken longer than three seconds to throw.
Indy's offensive line is unlikely to help Ehlinger. According to PFF, the Colts are the sixth-worst pass-blocking team in 2022. Per Football Outsiders, the Colts are tied for the ninth-highest adjusted sack rate (8.4 percent).
As a result, I love Washington's odds of piling up sacks and paying off as a low-salary D/ST. Our projections dig them as a value play, giving them the third-highest value score on this week's main slate.
Joshua Shepardson is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Joshua Shepardson also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username bchad50. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his/her personal views, he/she may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his/her personal account. The views expressed in his/her articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.