Fantasy Football: 5 Bold Predictions for Week 6

One of the things that makes fantasy football so captivating is the variance. Even throughout Cooper Kupp's historic, unflappable season, he was the top wideout for the week just three times in 2021. That means, on individual weeks, some very strange players may pop in terms of fantasy points at their positions.

That opens the door for some room to be "spicy" and make some fun predictions. In a landscape increasingly set ablaze by "hot takes," it can be difficult to understand the difference between a bold prediction -- based on a particularly strong spot for a team or player -- and a senseless take with the prayer of becoming correct based on variance.

Let's shoot for the former with five interesting spots to target during this weekend's NFL games.

Note: All predictions are for half-PPR formats (and FanDuel scoring for quarterbacks).

1. Don't Stream Danny: The Giants' QB Fails to Hit 15 Fantasy Points Against the Ravens

The Baltimore Ravens have allowed the second-most fantasy points to quarterbacks this year, which should push Daniel Jones to the top of streaming options this week. Don't do it.

First of all, that number is a bit inflated by Tua Tagovailoa's miraculous comeback in Week 3. Baltimore held the other four passers to fewer than 18.5 fantasy points, including an effort last week where Joe Burrow clawed to 18.3 points thanks to a rushing score.

Second, Jones has been a really terrible fantasy quarterback when removing the mobility element that might be gone for him this week given his sore ankle. He hasn't yet eclipsed 220 yards passing, and it's not for lack of trying (30.0 attempts in his four full games). Outside of a two-rushing-score performance against Chicago, Jones hasn't eclipsed 17 fantasy points in most formats.

There are some really enticing streams this week if your primary quarterback is on bye. Carson Wentz is fourth in the NFL in passing and faces the aforementioned Bears on Thursday. Jacoby Brissett and Zach Wilson have intriguing matchups, as well.

Don't fall to projection overloads and roster Mr. Dimes despite the "solid" matchup. The 4-1 Giants are Saquon Barkley's show.

2. New Hit Single-tary: Devin Steals the Shootout's Show With 100 Yards and a Score

We're all ready for Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen, right? Maybe it won't be those two slinging it over 50 times a piece.

If the Bills want to win their visit to Kansas City, they'll need to run the football. It's been the recipe to beat the Chiefs for years, and the Raiders were a toe tap away from doing it on Monday.

This season, K.C. is allowing 0.11 Rushing Net Expected Points (NEP) per carry to running backs, which is the sixth-most in the NFL.

It's nothing new for Buffalo. They ran for 121 yards in the regular season against the Chiefs last year, and they ran for 109 total yards in the playoffs. The difference this year is that they've put that ground attack into one man's hands: Devin Singletary.

In Buffalo's last two competitive games, Singletary played 79.6% of the snaps and got 74.1% of the team's running-back attempts. He also got all five red-zone carries in those two games.

The Bills' Week 5 blowout of Pittsburgh isn't a great indication that Singletary's stranglehold on this backfield is gone. They can and should use him early and often against the Chiefs, so this is a great spot to start him despite some poor results in the box score as of late.

3. Birds in Flight: The Week's Top Wideout Comes from Seattle

The game that is likely the overwhelming favorite to produce the week's best fantasy pass-catcher is said Bills-Chiefs clash. I'll take the one in Seattle at longer odds.

The Seahawks are hosting the Arizona Cardinals, and per our fantasy heat map, the two worst passing defenses will be on display. That's a good start.

While Kyler Murray and Geno Smith aren't Allen and Mahomes, they're certainly serviceable. In fact, if you're more worried about Geno between the two, he's actually fourth among qualifiers in Passing NEP per drop back (0.28) -- behind only Allen, Mahomes, and Tua Tagovailoa. If Kyler's the second-best quarterback in this game, there will be points.

As for the wideouts, three great candidates are present for a monster game any Sunday. Of course, Seattle's Tyler Lockett and D.K. Metcalf are a dynamic duo. Both are north of 8 targets and 100 air yards per game so far in 2022. On the other side, Marquise Brown has been lighting it up for the Cards. He's also over 100 air yards per game on an average of a whopping 11 targets.

With serviceable quarterback play and two of the worst secondaries in football squaring off, I'll take those three swipes at forecasting the week's top wideout.

4. Over the Hill: Taysom Duds Against the Bengals With Fewer Than 5 Fantasy Points

Taysom Hill has turned vulturing into a football position. He's a professional vulture.

Whether it be Drew Brees, Michael Thomas, or Alvin Kamara, Hill has been a thorn in my side for years stealing touchdowns from the Saints' top options. The idea that it's become such a standard practice that he's getting buzz on waivers this week is just weird.

Even in Hill's Week 5 eruption, he played just 31.1% of the snaps. On Hill's 9 carries, he was expected to get only 23.3 yards, per NextGenStats. He posted 112 yards on a pair of long scampers. It's happened in the NFL before. Those are never players we seek out in fantasy football. I'm not sure why it's different just because of the tight-end position.

The reality is Hill has scored twice in both games in which he's reached double-digit fantasy points. Plus, the more integral his role becomes in the offense, the less of a gadget it will become. The long runs will stop, and he'll be defended as a running back.

Hayden Hurst has a solid role on the other side of this game. Robert Tonyan has a great matchup with the Jets. Irv Smith Jr. has a 10.8% red-zone target share for the Vikings. I'd rather have all three than the virtual bagel Hill will eventually post in the coming weeks without an actual sustained role on the field.

5. Someone Save Private Ryan: Matt is Again Sacked 4+ Times By the Jaguars

Matt Ryan is the worst third-down quarterback in football. It's honestly uncomfortable to watch.

Due to his lack of mobility at 37 years old, Ryan is a sitting duck in the pocket in obvious passing situations. He's been sacked 21 times this year, which is the most in the NFL.

It's also on the Colts' offensive line. They've ceded a 26% pressure rate, which is the ninth-highest in the entire league. But Ryan is such a hittable target that the league is converting pressures into sacks at an alarming 22% rate.

Enter the Jacksonville D/ST. The Jags' pass rush has been monstrous this year, posting a 32% pressure rate (eighth-best in the NFL). They swallowed Ryan for five sacks and three picks in Jacksonville back in Week 2.

Michael Pittman Jr. is back for Indianapolis, so this take is a little bolder than it would be if they were still missing him like during the first matchup. Still, it's not looking good for Ryan to avoid getting hit early and often again in Week 6.