5 NFL FanDuel Value Plays to Target in Week 3
There isn't a better starting point for unearthing values for FanDuel NFL contests than numberFire's projection tool. Users can easily view the entire player pool or sort by position to see statistical projections for all players in FanDuel's player pool. Additionally, the column for value provides a sortable way to view which players offer the most bang for your buck, showing users the player's point-per thousand dollars of salary.
But, of course, factors such as a team's implied total and game's spread are integral for decision-making. Fortunately, numberFire patrons can peruse the Heat Map for that information and a wealth of other goodies.
Nevertheless, other considerations help inform my selection. So, this is your home for finding the five FanDuel values I'm targeting weekly for their main slate. Check this week's picks below.
Jared Goff, QB, Detroit Lions ($7,100)
The Detroit Lions are an exciting offense in 2022. According to Football Outsiders, the Lions have played at the fastest situation-neutral pace. In addition, they're not reverting to Boomer ball. Instead, in neutral game scripts this season, they've attempted 18 rushes and 22 passes.
On top of that, their defense is lousy. According to the numberFire power rankings, the Lions have the second-worst D. As a result, the pressure is on the offense to hang points and keep them in games. It's a beautiful context for fantasy.
Jared Goff isn't a flawless quarterback. Thankfully, he has talent around him and an excellent offensive line protecting him. Per Football Outsiders, the Lions are 12th in adjusted sack rate, and starting center Frank Ragnow practiced on Wednesday after missing Week 2. Goff has averaged a modest 235.5 passing yards per game in two contests. Still, he's tossed six touchdowns and only one interception. He's an intriguing value selection.
Dameon Pierce, RB, Houston Texans ($5,800)
Lovie Smith should be credited for correcting his misuse of running backs in Week 1. He acknowledged Dameon Pierce's low snap count in Week 1 was a mistake and remedied the issues in Week 2. Pierce surged from 27.9 percent of snaps in Week 1 to 62.7 percent in Week 2.
Additionally, Pierce wasn't far behind Rex Burkhead in routes last week. According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), Burkhead ran 20 routes, and Pierce ran 15 in Week 2. Burkhead is the best bet to handle snaps in long down-and-distance situations and hurry-up scenarios, but Pierce might not be a total non-factor in the passing game. Last week, he played two passing snaps in the slot and one out wide.
Still, the most encouraging factor for Pierce this week is the small spread. The Houston Texans are only 2.5-point underdogs. Pierce has toted the rock 22 times for 91 yards in neutral game scripts this year. He should be busy on the ground against a team that's been gashed on the ground by running backs.
According to Pro Football Reference, the Chicago Bears have allowed the fifth-most rushing yards (256) to running backs this season. Backs have torched them for 5.33 yards per carry. As a result, Pierce is a nifty value pick at running back.
Nelson Agholor, WR, New England Patriots ($5,900)
Nelson Agholor erupted for 110 yards and a touchdown in Week 2, reeling in all six of his targets. However, this isn't a point-chasing suggestion. DeVante Parker has been terrible this season, to the point that it's reasonable to question if he's done. According to PFF, Parker has had 0.15 yards per route run (Y/RR), ranking 100th out of 102 receivers targeted at least four times this season. Yikes.
Meanwhile, Agholor has 2.94 Y/RR, ranking 11th out of the same sampling of wideouts. Now, he'll face a secondary that vomited all over itself last week. The Baltimore Ravens have the second-worst pass defense in the team power rankings. Their secondary is banged up, which showed in their meltdown against the Miami Dolphins.
Ravens injury report
DNP: Duvernay (concussion), Humphrey (groin), Campbell (vet day), Houston (vet day), Peters (vet day)
LIMITED: Lamar Jackson (elbow), Proche (groin), Stanley (ankle), Stephens (quad), D. Williams (ankle), Likely (groin)
FULL: Dobbins (knee). T Jones (knee)
— Jeff Zrebiec (@jeffzrebiec) September 21, 2022
Agholor might also have an expanded role in the New England Patriots' passing attack this week, depending on how the rest of the week shakes out for Jakobi Meyers with a knee issue that required testing.
#Patriots WR Jakobi Meyers spent today getting his knee checked out, per me and @MikeGiardi. He was a DNP at practice. Tests showed nothing significant and his status will be determined later in the week.
— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) September 21, 2022
Agholor's value skyrockets if Meyers is out. Even if Meyers plays, Agholor is capable of paying off on limited targets thanks to his vertical usage. According to Sports Info Solutions (SIS), Agholor has an average depth of target of 10.5 yards downfield this year and had a 15.3-yard average depth of target for the Patriots in 2021. Fortunately, the reduced average depth of target might smooth out Agholor's volatility, so he isn't just a boom-or-bust tournament choice.
D.J. Chark, WR, Detroit Lions ($5,500)
Sadly, D.J. Chark has had only four receptions for 52 yards in two games. However, he's been targeted 12 times and hauled in a touchdown. Chark's 67 routes are only two behind Amon-Ra St. Brown's team-leading 69 routes.
Moreover, Goff hasn't been shy about flinging it deep to Chark. According to SIS, Chark has the 14th-most intended air yards (210), and his 17.5-yard average depth of target has been the 11th-deepest mark among wideouts and tight ends targeted at least four times.
1) has leverage-destroying field-tilting speed
2) understands the vertical manipulation concepts to make good use of his elite speed
3) claps his hands together to catch, like a 6 year old pic.twitter.com/mtkPhgXkRv
— JetPack Galileo (@JetPackGalileo) September 16, 2022
They weren't as lucky in Week 2. Instead, Quez Watkins barbecued them for a 53-yard touchdown reception.
JALEN HURTS. 53-YARD TD PASS.
: #MINvsPHI on ABC
: Stream on NFL+ https://t.co/DYp0tOlKGX pic.twitter.com/8HRPrWNdli
— NFL (@NFL) September 20, 2022
Jalen Hurts was four of six for 109 yards and a touchdown on passes of at least 15 air yards in Week 2 against the Vikings. Therefore, I'm firing some bullets on Chark in GPPs this week.
Dallas Goedert, TE, Philadelphia Eagles ($5,500)
Dallas Goedert is balling. Out of 36 tight ends with at least five targets this season, he's fifth with 2.00 Y/RR. Additionally, Goedert has the most yards after contact (107 YAC) among tight ends, per PFF. He also has the third-most receiving yards (142).
The fly in the ointment for Goedert has been his low volume. He's been targeted only 10 times. Regardless, Goedert's elite efficiency alleviates some concerns, and his targets have been high-percentage throws. He is sporting a 5.6-yard average depth of target, allowing him to tap into his excellent yards-after-catch ability. It's also exciting daydreaming about the damage he can do with even a slight uptick in usage.
Goedert has touchdown potential this week, too. According to the numberFire heat map, the Philadelphia Eagles have the fifth-highest implied total (27.00 points) on the main slate. There's also potential for a break-neck pace. The Eagles have played at the fifth-fastest situation-neutral pace, and the Washington Commanders have played at the 15th-fastest this season. Since Washington is a 6.5-point underdog, they might be forced to speed up in catch-up mode.
I'm enamored with Goedert's upside this week.
Joshua Shepardson is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Joshua Shepardson also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username bchad50. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his/her personal views, he/she may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his/her personal account. The views expressed in his/her articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.