Week 1 Expert Betting Picks and Predictions
The 2022 NFL Season is here!
Each and every week throughout the NFL season, the experts at numberFire will bring you their three favorite bets on the board -- one side, one total, and one player prop. They'll share some insight into one of their picks to provide context for their reasoning.
For this article, we are using the odds provided at FanDuel Sportsbook to pinpoint spots where value can be had this week.
Note: Betting lines and our player projections may change after this article is published.
Brandon Gdula, Senior Managing Editor
Side: Baltimore Ravens -6.5 (-115)
I know an under at a total this low is asking for some bad offense, but we'll get some of that in the way of the Bears' overmatched offensive line. We also can expect each team to keep the clock moving. Last season with Justin Fields starting, the Bears ranked bottom-five in adjusted pass rate. In two full games with Trey Lance, the 49ers would've ranked last in pace and adjusted pass rate on the full season.
Player Prop: Saquon Barkley Over 27.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
Jim Sannes, Senior Writer and Analyst
Side: Arizona Cardinals +5.5 (-105)
The Cardinals opened the week at +3.5 but got steamed to +5.5 mid-day Tuesday for no apparent reason. That's despite this spread being posted for months when the public had time to move it. It could mean something funky is up, or it could mean there's minimal logic behind the move. My numbers viewed the Cardinals as a smidge undervalued at +3.5, so pushing it out to +5.5 is a nice cushion.
Player Prop: James Conner Over 52.5 Rushing Yards (-114)
Austan Kas, Editor
Side: Houston Texans +7.5 (-118)
I like the idea of backing a home 'dog in Week 1 in a divisional matchup. Davis Mills wasn't too bad last season, and for the Colts, I'm not sure Matt Ryan will actually be that much of an upgrade over Carson Wentz. While the Colts are the better team, this spread is just too big. Our projections at nF have Indy winning by only 5.0 points.
Player Prop: D'Andre Swift Over 47.5 Rushing Yards (-114)
Kenyatta Storin, Editor
Side: Philadelphia Eagles -3.5 (-106)
As fun as the Detroit Lions were on Hard Knocks, they could struggle again on defense this year. Rookie Aidan Hutchinson should give a much-needed boost, but both PFF and Sharp Football Analysis rank Detroit's defensive line and secondary in the bottom third of the league. They figure to have a difficult time containing a talented Eagles offense that shouldn't have trouble surpassing this modest road spread.
Total: New England Patriots-Miami Dolphins Under 46.5 (-115)
Player Prop: Trey Lance Over 38.5 Rushing Yards (-114)
Tom Vecchio, Editor
Side: New Orleans Saints -5.5 (-110)
Total: Green Bay Packers-Minnesota Vikings Over 47.5 (-105)
Player Prop: Keenan Allen Over 68.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
The Los Angeles Chargers have a high 28.00-point implied total in a game with a 52.5 total. There are plenty of points expected in this game, and it should be mainly through the air. Last season, the Chargers held a 62.50% pass rate, which was the fifth-highest in the league. Add in that the Raiders' secondary is ranked 29th, per PFF, and this sets up to be an easy matchup for Allen.
Austin Swaim, Editor
Side: Vikings +1.5 (-110)
Considering they've got a backup QB and the dynamic duo of Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt, the Browns might play at one of the slowest paces in the NFL until Deshaun Watson returns. With that, they've also got the sixth-best passing defense, according to numberFire's metrics. I'm expecting a significant step back from Baker Mayfield as he leaves one of the best offensive lines in the NFL for one of the poorer units, and this Panthers' offense doesn't have a ton of dynamic perimeter playmaking beyond D.J. Moore. This low total might still be too high; the Browns could be an early-season "under" machine as they take a clock-killing approach.
Player Prop: Joe Burrow Over 260.5 Passing Yards (-114)