NFL

NFL Preseason Betting Guide: Week 3 Trends to Target

Brandon Gdula  —  @gdula13 Aug 26th, 2022

Betting on preseason games requires a bit more nuance than regular season NFL matchups. Historical preseason betting trends can help get our bearing, but from there, we'll need to track news about playing time.

What do the trends and news point to? Where is there value on the NFL betting lines at FanDuel Sportsbook?

Eagles at Dolphins

Eagles +1.5 (-110)

The starters for the Miami Dolphins and Philadelphia Eagles thus far in the preseason have been minimal, and there are no indications that it'll change drastically in the final tune-up before the season begins.

Both teams -- removing Tua Tagovailoa and Jalen Hurts from the data set -- have had top-14 passing efficiency marks in the preseason in terms of EPA.

Notably, however, teams that are underdogs by 1.0 to 2.0 points like the Eagles are here are 19-14-1 against the spread since 2019 in the preseason. Road teams in particular that are slight 'dogs are 11-5-1.

Buccaneers at Colts

Under 41.5 (-105)

We should be getting about a half from the Indianapolis Colts' starters in this matchup, and Tom Brady and healthy starters will start this game for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, which means we should have some good offensive efficiency here.

That's very welcomed for the Bucs, who have posted the worst passing EPA in the preseason by far; Indianapolis ranks 20th.

However, that's a pretty optimistic line given that Brady isn't going to play a full half and then the Bucs will turn it over to some iffy quarterback play.

This year, even in an over-friendly preseason, games with totals of at least 39.5 are 4-14 on the over.

Vikings at Broncos

Broncos +1.0 (-110)
Broncos Moneyline (+100)

The Minnesota Vikings haven't yet played Kirk Cousins in the preseason and don't seem inclined to do so, and the Denver Broncos' faithful will have to wait until the regular season to see Russell Wilson in action.

Denver ranks 12th in passing EPA (0.96) this preseason with Minnesota 26th (-11.63), and slight home underdogs this preseason are 6-3 against the spread and 5-4 outright.

While neither team has had a great showing in the preseason so far, the historical trends around this game -- and the preseason stats -- show that we should favor the Broncos.