Breece Hall Can Be a Fantasy Football Success Despite the Jets' Offense
Breece Hall was the overwhelming favorite -- -210 on FanDuel Sportsbook -- to be the first running back off the board, and the New York Jets made that come to fruition by drafting Hall with the 36th overall pick.
For Hall's fantasy outlook, the Jets are not the most fun landing spot -- especially when a lot of mock drafts had him going to the Buffalo Bills -- but he checks a lot of boxes as a prospect.
In terms of on-field production, he registered a 43.9% college dominator rating, per PlayerProfiler, which ranks in the 95th percentile, and his target share of 10.7% is an 80th-percentile clip. He ran for 1,572 and 1,472 yards over his final two seasons at Iowa State. He tested really well, too, posting marks that were in at least the 94th percentile in the 40-yard dash (4.39 seconds), speed score and burst score.
How high is his fantasy football ceiling in Year 1?
Player Comparisons
numberFire's Brandon Gdula breaks down Hall's profile and gives a top comparison.
"The top comparison for Hall is Jonathan Taylor." @gdula13 views Breece Hall as the obvious RB1 in the 2022 draft class #FanDuelNY | #TakeFlight pic.twitter.com/OYcYTqheLl
— FanDuel (@FanDuel) April 29, 2022
Gdula's draft database has found these 10 prior prospects to have the most similar statistical profiles to Hall’s. Keep in mind that these are based not on play style or traits but age, athleticism, draft equity, experience, efficiency, and production.
| Rank | Breece Hall Profile Comparisons | Similarity |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jonathan Taylor | 94.5% |
| 2 | Cam Akers | 92.3% |
| 3 | Rashaad Penny | 87.3% |
| 4 | Dalvin Cook | 86.8% |
| 5 | Knowshon Moreno | 86.5% |
| 6 | Donald Brown | 86.2% |
| 7 | Trent Richardson | 86.1% |
| 8 | Marshawn Lynch | 85.8% |
| 9 | Ezekiel Elliott | 84.5% |
| 10 | Darren McFadden | 84.2% |
Gdula's Take: Hall is everything you want in a running back prospect: he's big enough, he's fast enough, and he produced more than enough in college. He's the surest bet to be a fantasy producer of any back in this class by a solid margin.
Breece Hall's 2022 Fantasy Football Projection
Gdula’s initial projections for Hall include 224 carries, 884 rushing yards and 9.9 scores on the ground plus 315 receiving yards and another 1.2 tuds through the air -- making him the PPR RB18 for the season.
As we alluded to earlier, the landing spot could've been better as the Jets will likely be an underwhelming offense barring a huge Year-2 leap from Zach Wilson. But in fantasy, volume is king at running back, and Hall should see plenty of it.
The biggest loser in this situation is Michael Carter, who fared decently well as a rookie but will now -- in all likelihood -- be relegated to a low-volume gig behind Hall.
On FanDuel Sportsbook, the Jets are listed at +15000 to win the Super Bowl and +2000 to take the AFC East, and they have a win total projection of 5.5 -- with -120 juice on the over.
