NFL Betting Guide: Week 17

Do you think you know a lot about NFL football? Try regularly picking five games against the spread.

Even with all the information, advanced stats, and people attempting, elite sports bettors are lucky to get about 53% to 54% of -110 (even probability) bets correctly. It's essentially flipping a coin.

That being said, people try. Myself included. There are plenty of contests, media personalities, and other casual games at work or with friends that pick five games against the spread to see how they fare.

Here are my five picks against the spread and a couple of totals I like this week. Play or fade as you please.

Week 16 Recap

Last Week: 2-3
Year-To-Date: 43-36-1 (54.4%)

Imagine the hope and optimism I carried into Sunday night with the Football Team getting 10 points in a divisional rematch to produce my first winning week since Week 10.

That, obviously, ended poorly. "Poor" could also describe the ending of Patriots-Bills, where Josh Allen went complete Madden-video-game mode (rest in peace, legend) to help Buffalo win outright. We had the right side in Atlanta, though, as the only reason the Lions covered was an inexplicable, totally meaningless Dan Campbell field goal call with less than three minutes to go.

The Raiders did indeed win outright as a small underdog, and the same could be said about the Colts on Christmas night in Arizona. A 2-3 record isn't great, but two more of those outcomes would secure an above .500 record this year.

Spread Picks

Pick #1: Broncos (+6) at Chargers

Styles make fights, and the Broncos have the perfect one for the Los Angeles Chargers.

That's not just based on their 28-13 win over L.A. earlier this year in Denver. It's based on their ground game. Denver's 45% early-down, first-half pass rate since Week 10 is the sixth-lowest in the league. They're actively feeding a run game that hasn't been tremendously efficient some weeks, but the solid offensive line, Melvin Gordon, and Javonte Williams have had weeks imposing their will on the ground.

Conversely, every team is efficient on the ground against the Chargers. They're either last or second-to-last in three key numberFire rushing defense metrics. That slows down the pace of the game, and the fewer points that are scored, the more value the points with the underdog become.

Not many are debating Denver having the stronger overall defense, so with a way to move the ball on L.A. in spite of Drew Lock's best efforts, I believe the Broncos win outright in my favorite bet of the week.

Swami Swaim's Score Prediction: Broncos 24-23

Pick #2: Vikings (+6.5) at Packers

Editor's Note: Since publication, Kirk Cousins has been ruled out. Sean Mannion will start.

This selection is basically the same as Broncos-Chargers but with much more fear of the opposing offense.

The Minnesota Vikings beat the Green Bay Packers 34-31 in Minnesota earlier this season, but it was no fluke. Between Alexander Mattison and Dalvin Cook, Minnesota has a recipe to gash teams that struggle defending the run, and no team has struggled worse than the Packers of late.

In the past five weeks, Green Bay has ceded 0.16 Rushing Net Expected Points (NEP) per carry -- the worst mark in the NFL. Minnesota hasn't been consistent on the ground week to week (shocker from the first team that lost to the Lions this year), but they did smash another weak rush defense (Pittsburgh) for 0.36 Rushing NEP per carry and a 54.1% rushing Success Rate in Week 14.

With a playoff spot on the line for Minnesota, the urgency is squarely on the Vikings' side, and they have a decent formula to control the pace of this game.

Swami Swaim's Score Prediction: Vikings 27-24

Pick #3: Chiefs (-5.5) at Bengals

The entire globe is in love with the Cincinnati Bengals' young core of offensive talent after a monstrous showing against the COVID-ravaged Ravens.

I'm keeping my cool.

The Bengals do have plenty of offensive talent, but the problem this week is they're facing a defense playing much better than Baltimore's D is. In the past five weeks, Baltimore is second from the bottom in Defensive NEP per play (0.17). Kansas City has the sixth-best mark (-0.02) in that same time.

Baltimore's 29% pressure rate is also below average. The Chiefs have a 34% pressure rate as a team -- tied for third-best in the league. In short, Joe Burrow probably isn't throwing for 500 yards this week.

Considering the Chiefs' defense is in a great spot to limit Burrow, it's also hard not to expect a red-hot Patrick Mahomes to put up points with both Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill at his disposal. The Bengals' defense hovers around the league average in most categories.

Swami Swaim's Score Prediction: Chiefs 31-17

Other Selections

Raiders (+6.5) at Colts: The key question is if the Raiders can stop Jonathan Taylor. The box should be stacked regardless of Carson Wentz's status. Las Vegas has actually been the ninth-best team against the rush the past five weeks (-0.03 Rushing NEP per carry allowed), so they have a chance to keep Taylor from running wild. With a playoff spot on the line and the Colts locked into their slot with a Tennessee win, the points with the better quarterback feels like the right play.

Bears (-5.5) vs. Giants: Laying 5.5 points with an offense this bad feels like a recipe for disaster, but the Bears actually have the functional offense in this one. They've been league average (0.08 Offensive NEP per play) the past five weeks, and Mike Glennon and Jake Fromm are quite literally two of the three worst quarterbacks in terms of Passing NEP per drop back to have made at least 10 pass attempts this season. I'll swallow the points for a comfortable win.

Totals of the Week

Pick #1: Falcons at Bills (Over 44.5)

Not many are projecting the Bills to struggle to score on the Falcons, so this total fully represents the perceived lack of competitiveness of Atlanta.

With Atlanta needing a win to stay in the playoff race, I'm optimistic the Falcons put together a decent offensive showing. Atlanta's offense has hovered near midpack (0.05 NEP per play) the past five weeks, and the Bills' defense has also regressed to the middle of the road (0.02 Defensive NEP per play) in that same span. That almost immediately coincides with when Tre'Davious White went down in the Bills' secondary.

With a passable forecast not expecting snowfall during the game, I'm sticking with the Bills' hefty implied team total but adding in a better-than-expected showing from Matt Ryan and the Falcons' two-headed backfield. The over correlates pretty well with a Falcons cover (+14.5), too.

Swami Swaim's Score Prediction: Bills 30-20

Pick #2: Lions at Seahawks (Under 42.5)

These teams are a combined 9-20-1 this season in terms of exceeding the expected points total, so the under is a decent bet on that principle alone.

Beyond that, the Lions could be starting Tim Boyle again this week as Jared Goff deals with a knee injury. Boyle was serviceable last week in Atlanta, but his -0.14 Passing NEP per drop back mark on the entire season is right next to Justin Fields and Drew Lock. He's not primed for a shootout any time soon.

Seattle's woes can strictly be traced to their offensive line. They have allowed a 31% pressure rate this season (third-highest in the NFL), and they've allowed the fifth-most sacks (44) in the NFL. Detroit's unit isn't stellar, but they've posted multiple sacks in three of their past four games.

Ultimately, the light rain expected in Seattle this week is less volatile than the snowstorm that allowed for an over against Chicago one week ago. Both of these offenses are capable of a complete implosion; they've combined to score fewer than 15 points on 10 separate occasions.

Swami Swaim's Score Prediction: Seahawks 22-16