5 NFL Stats to Know Through Week 10
The season is flying by, and if you're here, that hopefully means your fantasy teams are still in contention. While it wasn't necessarily the most compelling slate of NFL action in Week 10, there were still plenty of noteworthy fantasy performances.
Here are five stats to know -- both traditional and our advanced statistics -- through 10 weeks.
Patrick Mahomes Led All Quarterbacks With 28.64 Passing NEP in Week 10
This probably doesn't come as a huge shock considering Patrick Mahomes lit up the Raiders for 406 yards and 5 touchdowns on Sunday Night Football, but it's notable considering how poorly Mahomes had performed in the games leading up to this outburst. In Weeks 7-9, Mahomes had produced -10.31 Passing Net Expected Points (NEP), meaning he was actually a detriment to his team as a passer over that span.
He finally flipped the script on Sunday, though, with his 28.64 Passing NEP leading the slate. In terms of per-play efficiency, his incredible 0.57 Passing NEP per drop back ranked fourth on the week behind only the uber-efficient play of Dak Prescott, Mac Jones, and Josh Allen, who all also enjoyed blowout victories.
The performance brings Mahomes' season-long Passing NEP per drop back up to 0.22, which ranks sixth among quarterbacks with at least 100 drop backs. While that's still a ways off last year's mark (0.33; second-best), this is clearly a massive step in the right direction.
We can now feel much better going into next week's marquee matchup against the Cowboys -- a game that's showing an enticing 55.5 total on NFL odds.
Cam Newton Scores Double-Digit Fantasy Points on 9 Snaps
This one's more amusing than anything else, but it was a reminder of what Cam Newton can still bring to the table.
While Newton was used sparingly in his 2021 debut as expected, his nine snaps included opportunities in the red zone, and he rewarded the Panthers with two touchdowns, running one in from the two-yard line and then tossing a two-yard score to Robby Anderson.
The net result was nearly a dozen fantasy points, and entering Monday night, he actually ranks as the QB16 on the week, per FantasyPros, ahead of guys like Aaron Rodgers, Russell Wilson, and Carson Wentz. He also finished with more points than Panthers starter P.J. Walker.
Carolina is expected to fully hand the keys over to Newton in Week 11 against Washington. It obviously remains to be seen how much overall success Newton will have after a rocky one-year stint with the Patriots in 2020, but for all his struggles as a passer, he still managed to average roughly 18 fantasy points per game due to his rushing production.
In deeper formats, it can't hurt to take a chance on Newton if you're lacking at quarterback.
AJ Dillon Sees a Season-High 23 Touches in Week 10
Aaron Jones fantasy managers have no doubt been frustrated by A.J. Dillon's presence over the course of the season, but it got even worse for them with Jones going down with a knee injury midway through Sunday's game.
The end result was Dillon logging a season-best 23 touches (21 carries; 2 receptions) and also a season-high 51.4% snap rate. That led to a huge fantasy day, with Dillon posting 128 total yards with 2 touchdowns.
To the relief of Jones managers, he was diagnosed with a mild MCL strain and is expected to be out one-to-two weeks. The Packers have a bye in Week 13, though, so it wouldn't be surprising to see Green Bay sit him for at least the next two games, giving Dillon some amazing short-term potential.
Considering that backup running back Patrick Taylor only logged two carries on Sunday -- his only touches all season -- Dillon should be line for a robust workload while Jones is out. He gets a plus matchup against Minnesota in Week 11, too, as the Vikings entered the weekend with the 30th ranked schedule-adjusted rush defense, per numberFire's metrics.
Dan Arnold Has 7 or More Targets in Four of the Last Five Games
Outside of the handful of elites at the position -- and even they've been more hit or miss this season -- it's always difficult to find reliable fantasy tight ends you can comfortably start every week.
But Dan Arnold has quietly emerged as a consistent option for the Jaguars despite still being widely available in fantasy leagues. Since seeing a rise in snap rate in Week 5, Arnold's enjoyed a 19.8% target share over his last five games, which actually leads the team over that span. He's tallied 7 or more targets in four of those weeks, helping him surpass 60 yards all four times.
Of course, playing in a sputtering Jaguars offense limits his ceiling, as he's yet to score a touchdown this year. Even so, the volume alone should continue to pay off in PPR formats, and the Jaguars tend to find themselves in negative game scripts, which should lead to more pass attempts from Trevor Lawrence most weeks.
Jakobi Meyers Records His First Receiving Touchdown
He finally did it.
Wide receiver Jakobi Meyers entered the weekend with not one but two career passing touchdowns, and yet he still inexplicably had zero career receiving touchdowns despite 38 games, 194 targets, 131 receptions, and 1,522 receiving yards.
Well, it finally came together in the fourth quarter of a blowout win on an 11-yard pass from backup quarterback Brian Hoyer of all people. Maybe it wasn't quite how Meyers envisioned it, but I'm sure he wasn't complaining.
While that was a fun moment, Meyers' fantasy upside will likely remain limited in a Pats offense that likes to rely on the run game and spreads the ball around, but he still leads the team with a workable 23.5% target share.
If there's any room for some added hope, though, it's that Mac Jones is coming off perhaps his best game yet. As noted earlier, Jones was incredibly efficient in terms of Passing NEP per drop back, and he notched a season-best 3 touchdowns on just 23 pass attempts with only 4 incompletions. That volume won't blow anyone away, but that was due in part to being rested early.
Of course, until this passing attack shows more weekly consistency, Meyers is more of a fringe starter -- but at least he can now say he's caught an NFL touchdown.
