NFL

5 NFL FanDuel Value Plays to Target in Week 9

Josh Shepardson  —  @BChad50 Nov 4th, 2021

Studs with sizable salaries are frequently an integral part of winning money in daily fantasy football at FanDuel. However, to fit them under the salary cap, it's imperative to locate underpriced players who over-deliver.

A good place to start when attempting to unearth undervalued players is our projections tool. The tool offers a value option for sorting, showcasing who offers the most bang for your buck. In addition to matchups impacting projections, injuries do as well. On that note, players replacing injured starters are often among the top values. So, staying abreast of injury news and inactives until the start of games is a must with that in mind.

With the tone set for this piece, let's move on. The following quintet of players is among my favorite cap-friendly options in Week 9.

Tua Tagovailoa, QB, Miami Dolphins ($7,300)

The NFL's trading deadline has passed, putting to bed trade rumors for Tua Tagovailoa for the time being. Now, he'll have a chance to light up the hapless Houston Texans. The Texans rank as the seventh-worst pass defense in our power rankings. Further, Tagovailoa leads an offense that passes at an above-average rate.

According to Sharp Football Stats, in the previous three weeks with Tagovailoa returning from injury and an offensive scoring margin between trailing by seven points and leading by seven points, the Miami Dolphins are passing at the seventh-highest rate (64 percent), considerably above the league average of 59 percent under those conditions. The second-year quarterback struggled in a challenging matchup against the Buffalo Bills last week.

In the previous two weeks against the giving pass defenses of the Jacksonville Jaguars and Atlanta Falcons, Tagovailoa lit them up for 610 passing yards, 6 passing touchdowns, 3 interceptions, and 51 rushing yards. As a result, our projections paint a positive picture for Tagovailoa's outlook in a plus matchup this week, awarding him the fifth-highest value score -- a measure of points per one-thousand dollars of salary -- among quarterbacks in Week 9.

Emmanuel Sanders, WR, Buffalo Bills ($6,500)

Emmanuel Sanders turned in a stinker last week, hauling in zero receptions. Thankfully, he has a bounce-back spot against the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Jags rank as the second-worst pass defense in our power rankings. Further, according to Sharp Football Stats, Jacksonville has coughed up the highest average explosive pass rate (14 percent).

The Jaguars' issues with defending explosive passing plays are especially eye-catching in regards to Sanders' Week 9 outlook. Despite the Buffalo Bills having their bye already, Sanders has the 16th-most intended air yards (755), per Sports Info Solutions. In addition, among players that are healthy and on an NFL roster still with at least 20 targets, Sanders' average depth of target (17.6 yards downfield). Buffalo's field-stretching receiver is built to exploit Jacksonville's shortcomings, making him one of my favorite value plays across all game types.

DeVante Parker, WR, Miami Dolphins ($6,200)

(UPDATE: Parker reportedly suffered a setback in practice and is now doubtful to play. In 2 games with Tagovailoa and without Parker, Waddle led with 24.4% of the targets while Mike Gesicki had 19.8%.)

DeVante Parker is another piece of exposure to Miami's pass-happy offense and Houston's terrible pass defense. The 28-year-old receiver has excelled in two games with Tagovailoa. In those games, he's snagged 12 of 15 targets for 166 scoreless yards. Sure, the lack of touchdown production is disappointing. Nevertheless, the other box-score numbers are excellent.

Additionally, a look under the hood reveals more goodies in Parker's statistical profile paired with Tua. According to Pro Football Focus, in Week 1 and Week 8 combined, Parker leads the Dolphins in routes (70) and yards per route run (2.37 Y/RR). Further, he has a relatively deep 10.6-yard average depth of target in those two games, positioning him to pick apart a Houston defense responsible for the fifth-highest average explosive pass rate (12 percent). As is the case with Sanders, I love Parker across all game types in Week 9.

Kadarius Toney, WR, New York Giants ($5,700)

The weekly game of guessing which banged-up players on the New York Giants will play continues in Week 9. Kadarius Toney left last week's game with a "pretty good gash" on his thumb.


Fortunately, he's already practicing in a limited capacity. Meanwhile, Saquon Barkley is on the reserve/COVID list, and neither Kenny Golladay nor Sterling Shepard practiced on Wednesday. So, Toney appears to have a leg-up on the aforementioned trio for suiting up this week.

Toney isn't a flawless player. However, the electrifying rookie showcased top-flight skills when reeling in 16 receptions on 22 targets for 266 receiving yards and adding 8 rushing yards in Week 4 and Week 5 combined. Understandably, Toney stands out like a sore thumb in our projections, earning the fifth-highest value score among receivers. Thus, Toney makes it three-for-three for value receivers I'm honing in on for all game types.

Chiefs, DEF, Kansas City Chiefs ($3,300)

Suggesting using the Kansas City Chiefs defense in daily games would have seemed absurd earlier in the week. However, with Aaron Rodgers out and second-year quarterback Jordan Love primed to make his first start as a 7.5-point underdog on the road, per our heat map, Kansas City's defense is likely to be a chalk play.

Further, they deserve to be a chalk play under these conditions. As a reminder, Love spent most of last year inactive behind Rodgers and Tim Boyle. In Love's final collegiate season at Utah State Aggies in 2019, he threw 17 interceptions in 13 games, despite playing outside a Power Five conference.

Say what you will about Kansas City's underachieving defense, but they're a massive step up from the Mountain West Conference defenses Love played against in college. Further, the Chiefs have held two of their last three opponents under 300 total yards of offense and 20 points while forcing three turnovers, according to Pro Football Reference.

This is a no-brainer cash game pick and a viable option in GPPs, too. Finally, the Chiefs have by far the best value score among the defenses this week. So, don't overthink this pick.

Joshua Shepardson is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Joshua Shepardson also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username bchad50. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his/her personal views, he/she may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his/her personal account. The views expressed in his/her articles are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.