NFL Week 9 Power Rankings: The League Has Taken Shape
Everyone has his or her own set of NFL power rankings, but not all of them are computer-driven, algorithmically-derived approaches that look at underlying data to figure out true team strength.
But numberFire's power rankings do.
Using our nERD metric, which indicates the expected point differential against an average opponent on a neutral field, here is how our model ranks and rates all 32 teams after eight weeks.
The Touchdown Underdogs
| Team | Record | nERD | nERD Rank |
Rank Change |
Playoff Odds |
xWins Next 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lions | 0-8 | -15.11 | 32 | -3 | 0.0% | 0.5 |
| Jaguars | 1-6 | -12.93 | 31 | -1 | 0.0% | 0.4 |
| Jets | 2-5 | -12.79 | 30 | 2 | 0.1% | 0.6 |
| Texans | 1-7 | -12.28 | 29 | 2 | 0.0% | 1.0 |
| Falcons | 3-4 | -9.78 | 28 | 0 | 0.5% | 0.5 |
| Football Team | 2-6 | -8.01 | 27 | 0 | 0.3% | 0.6 |
| Bears | 3-5 | -7.49 | 26 | -1 | 0.3% | 1.1 |
| Dolphins | 1-7 | -7.39 | 25 | 1 | 0.2% | 1.6 |
The Chicago Bears are the most noteworthy squad on that list. They dropped just a single spot in our power rankings, but their power rating fell by 3.35 points to -7.49.
Along with that, their playoff odds plummeted by 7.2 percentage points to 0.3%. The Justin Fields era is fully underway, so they'll have plenty to watch for the rest of the season. However, the playoffs look virtually unattainable for the 3-5 squad.
The Below Average
| Team | Record | nERD | nERD Rank |
Rank Change |
Playoff Odds |
xWins Next 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Giants | 2-6 | -4.00 | 24 | 0 | 1.0% | 0.9 |
| Browns | 4-4 | -2.81 | 23 | -7 | 46.4% | 1.7 |
| Broncos | 4-4 | -2.61 | 22 | -1 | 7.5% | 0.9 |
| Patriots | 4-4 | -2.51 | 21 | -2 | 20.9% | 1.7 |
| Panthers | 4-4 | -2.17 | 20 | 2 | 7.8% | 1.4 |
| Chiefs | 4-4 | -1.28 | 19 | -1 | 62.2% | 0.9 |
| 49ers | 3-4 | -0.46 | 18 | -1 | 13.0% | 1.2 |
| Raiders | 5-2 | -0.18 | 17 | 3 | 75.5% | 1.7 |
Kansas City fended off the New York Giants with a narrow Monday Night Football win in Week 8. For their efforts, they fell to 19th in our power rankings, and their nERD score actually dropped by more than half a point (0.58).
Their playoff odds, however, increased by 15.8 percentage points to 62.2%, signaling the largest increase in the league this week. I've talked about them in detail before, but their schedule started off tough (four games in their first five weeks against top-half teams) and is a little softer the rest of the way. We can't write them off yet.
The Above Average
| Team | Record | nERD | nERD Rank |
Rank Change |
Playoff Odds |
xWins Next 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bengals | 5-3 | 0.34 | 16 | -8 | 48.2% | 1.5 |
| Eagles | 3-5 | 0.51 | 15 | 8 | 21.6% | 1.4 |
| Seahawks | 3-5 | 0.92 | 14 | 1 | 13.6% | 1.2 |
| Colts | 3-5 | 1.43 | 13 | 0 | 35.0% | 1.9 |
| Ravens | 5-2 | 1.46 | 12 | 0 | 87.4% | 1.8 |
| Packers | 7-1 | 2.38 | 11 | 3 | 97.9% | 1.5 |
| Chargers | 4-3 | 3.08 | 10 | -1 | 78.0% | 1.5 |
| Titans | 6-2 | 3.11 | 9 | 2 | 99.8% | 1.6 |
The Cincinnati Bengals were dealt a pretty serious loss this week. The New York Jets, of all teams, got the better of the Bengals, and as a result, Cincinnati's playoff odds fell from by 24.2 points to 48.2%, easily the largest drop of the week. The costly loss shifted Cincinnati down eight spots in our rankings, and their nERD score fell by nearly a field goal (-2.75 points).
The Bengals' poor week actually led to a sizable shift for the idle Baltimore Ravens, whose playoff odds increased by 7.9 points to 87.4%; their division odds are now 58.3%.
We saw the Tennessee Titans separate from the Indianapolis Colts this week with an overtime win. It was a Pyrrhic victory for Tennessee, as star running back Derrick Henry is potentially out for the season.
With the win, Tennessee's playoff odds increased by 3.2 points to an astounding 99.8%, given the nature of the division behind them (their AFC South title odds are 99.2%). Indianapolis' odds plummeted to 35.0%, an 11.5-point drop that ranks second only to the Bengals' decrease.
The NFL's Elite
| Team | Record | nERD | nERD Rank |
Rank Change |
Playoff Odds |
xWins Next 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steelers | 4-3 | 4.60 | 8 | -1 | 39.0% | 2.3 |
| Saints | 5-2 | 6.22 | 7 | 3 | 91.7% | 2.1 |
| Vikings | 3-4 | 6.83 | 6 | 0 | 57.0% | 1.9 |
| Rams | 7-1 | 9.93 | 5 | -2 | 97.9% | 2.2 |
| Buccaneers | 6-2 | 11.53 | 4 | -2 | 99.3% | 2.6 |
| Bills | 5-2 | 12.41 | 3 | 1 | 99.7% | 2.7 |
| Cowboys | 6-1 | 12.90 | 2 | 3 | 99.4% | 2.7 |
| Cardinals | 7-1 | 15.52 | 1 | 0 | 98.7% | 2.7 |
Despite a top-eight nERD rating, the Pittsburgh Steelers are on the outside looking in regarding the playoff race with their 4-3 record. Their playoff odds are just 39.0%, and they have a narrow path to the postseason, as their division odds are just 11.0%. They have winnable games upcoming, so that could change, especially if the Bengals' tumble were to continue.
The New Orleans Saints put up a statement win but also suffered a season-ending injury to quarterback Jameis Winston. Trevor Siemian led the team to a clutch win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 8, and in so doing, he helped the Saints increase their nERD by 3.77 points (the second-best jump of the week).
The largest nERD increase of the week belongs to the Dallas Cowboys (4.07 points). They're one of four teams now with a nERD above 10.00 points, and they got the win over a tough Minnesota Vikings team with backup Cooper Rush at the helm. They're looking like the real deal, and they've got a 97.9% chance to win the NFC East.
