2020 NFL Power Rankings: Who Enters the Playoffs on Top?
The regular season is over with all eyes on the upcoming playoff games. It’s time to put a nice bow on this season’s power rankings.
One difference you see this week is the playoff odds column is removed because we already know which teams are in, and playoff teams are marked with an (*). For fun, I added each team’s rank leading into the regular season.
Let’s see how this week’s action shook up our rankings.
Risers and Fallers
The Buffalo Bills stayed hot and destroyed the Miami Dolphins by 30 points to help keep the Dolphins out of the playoffs. The Bills' nERD rating increased by 2.78 and Miami's decreased by 2.14 points (both the largest changes in the season’s final week).
The Dolphins had an 83.8% chance of making the playoffs heading into week 17, according to numberFire’s playoff odds, but they didn’t control their own destiny, as they say. They needed some help that they did not get.
One of the teams that could have helped the Dolphins was the Cleveland Browns, who defeated a Pittsburgh Steelers team resting many of its starters. The Browns are now down their head coach and other key pieces heading into their wild card weekend rematch in Pittsburgh.
Taking a look all the way back to before Week 1, the biggest drops in nERD rating:
| Team | Current nERD | Week 1 nERD | nERD Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | -6.05 | 3.61 | -9.66 |
| NYJ | -11.56 | -3.16 | -8.4 |
| JAC | -13.25 | -5.24 | -8.01 |
| DET | -10.76 | -2.96 | -7.8 |
| PHI | -4.72 | 2.39 | -7.11 |
| NE | -3.49 | 3.09 | -6.58 |
The Dallas Cowboys’ loss of Dak Prescott can be attributed as the main cause for the Cowboys' drop.
Here are the largest increases in nERD rating since the start of the season:
| Team | Current nERD | Week 1 nERD | nERD Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| TB | 9.92 | 1.74 | 8.18 |
| WSH | 1.25 | -5.94 | 7.19 |
| BUF | 7.45 | 1.19 | 6.26 |
| LA | 7.54 | 1.29 | 6.25 |
| GB | 7.72 | 1.85 | 5.87 |
| MIA | 0.74 | -4.87 | 5.61 |
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers took the largest leap in nERD ratings, rising by 8.18 points from the start of the season and finishing the regular season as our top-ranked team.
Their defense has been in the top-five according to Adjusted Defensive Net Expected Points (NEP) per play since Week 2 and is now paired with an offense that is hitting its stride.
You may not know it, but Tom Brady finished fifth in the league in Passing NEP.
Here are our NFL Power Rankings to end the regular season:
Teams Ranked 32nd to 23rd
| Rank | Team | nERD | W-L-T | Rank Change | Off. NEP Rank | Def. NEP Rank | Preseason Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 32 | Jacksonville Jaguars | -13.25 | 1-15 | 0 | 31 | 29 | 29 |
| 31 | New York Jets | -11.56 | 2-14 | 0 | 32 | 25 | 26 |
| 30 | Detroit Lions | -10.76 | 5-11 | 0 | 23 | 32 | 25 |
| 29 | Cincinnati Bengals | -7.84 | 4-11-1 | -1 | 29 | 24 | 32 |
| 28 | Houston Texans | -6.11 | 4-12 | 1 | 14 | 30 | 20 |
| 27 | Dallas Cowboys | -6.05 | 6-10 | -1 | 18 | 28 | 5 |
| 26 | Denver Broncos | -5.49 | 5-11 | 1 | 30 | 11 | 19 |
| 25 | Las Vegas Raiders | -5.18 | 8-8 | -1 | 12 | 31 | 23 |
| 24 | Philadelphia Eagles | -4.72 | 4-11-1 | 1 | 25 | 20 | 7 |
| 23 | New York Giants | -4.08 | 6-10 | 0 | 26 | 13 | 27 |
Did the Philadelphia Eagles tank? It seems to be the consensus that when Eagles coach Doug Pederson pulled Jalen Hurts for Nate Sudfeld, he was sending up the white flag to grab the sixth pick in the upcoming draft (instead of the ninth if they were to win).
Take a look at the two Eagles quarterbacks' Passing NEP production in Week 17:
| Passing Metric | Jalen Hurts | Nate Sudfeld |
|---|---|---|
| NEP | -11.1 | -6.54 |
| NEP per drop back | -0.53 | -0.47 |
| Success Rate | 28.57% | 21.43% |
That looks pretty bad for Jalen, but I must note that Hurts did produce 9.37 more Rushing NEP than Sudfeld. If Pederson thought throwing was the only way to win the game, then maybe the decision to put in Sudfeld may not have been as tanky as we think (but maybe it was).
Teams Ranked 22nd to 13th
| Rank | Team | nERD | W-L-T | Rank Change | Off. NEP Rank | Def. NEP Rank | Preseason Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | New England Patriots | -3.49 | 7-9 | 0 | 24 | 18 | 6 |
| 21 | Carolina Panthers | -2.44 | 5-11 | -1 | 21 | 17 | 30 |
| 20 | Cleveland Browns* | -2.42 | 11-5 | 1 | 11 | 27 | 21 |
| 19 | Chicago Bears* | -1.38 | 8-8 | 0 | 27 | 8 | 18 |
| 18 | Atlanta Falcons | -0.67 | 4-12 | -1 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
| 17 | Minnesota Vikings | -0.25 | 7-9 | -1 | 9 | 23 | 11 |
| 16 | Los Angeles Chargers | 0.3 | 7-9 | 2 | 13 | 15 | 22 |
| 15 | Miami Dolphins | 0.74 | 10-6 | -3 | 22 | 10 | 28 |
| 14 | Washington Football Team* | 1.25 | 7-9 | 0 | 28 | 3 | 31 |
| 13 | Arizona Cardinals | 1.44 | 8-8 | 2 | 10 | 19 | 24 |
The Washington Football Team is 14th in our rankings heading into the playoffs, and they only had a 9.4% chance of making it at the season's start. They're the biggest longshot to make the postseason among those who qualified.
Washington’s defense is ranked 3rd in Adjusted NEP per play and their offense is ranked 28th. Their 25-rank difference is not only the largest gap among playoff teams but also the largest across the league.
Teams Ranked 12th to 1st
| Rank | Team | nERD | W-L-T | Rank Change | Off. NEP Rank | Def. NEP Rank | Preseason Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Indianapolis Colts* | 2.07 | 11-5 | 1 | 20 | 9 | 16 |
| 11 | Tennessee Titans* | 2.75 | 11-5 | 0 | 3 | 26 | 12 |
| 10 | Seattle Seahawks* | 2.8 | 12-4 | 0 | 6 | 22 | 9 |
| 9 | San Francisco 49ers | 3.45 | 6-10 | 0 | 16 | 7 | 3 |
| 8 | Kansas City Chiefs* | 4.99 | 14-2 | -2 | 4 | 21 | 2 |
| 7 | Pittsburgh Steelers* | 5.57 | 12-4 | 0 | 19 | 2 | 13 |
| 6 | Baltimore Ravens* | 6.54 | 11-5 | 2 | 8 | 6 | 1 |
| 5 | Buffalo Bills* | 7.45 | 13-3 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 15 |
| 4 | Los Angeles Rams* | 7.54 | 10-6 | -2 | 17 | 1 | 14 |
| 3 | Green Bay Packers* | 7.72 | 13-3 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 8 |
| 2 | New Orleans Saints* | 7.94 | 12-4 | 2 | 7 | 5 | 4 |
| 1 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers* | 9.92 | 11-5 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 10 |
The Tennessee Titans battled the Baltimore Ravens in a back-and-forth Week 11 matchup where the Titans won in overtime. The Titans also beat the Ravens in the divisional round of last year’s playoffs, 28-12.
Can the Titans notch another victory? Fanduel Sportsbook puts the Ravens as three-point favorites on the road to Tennessee. numberFire’s nERD rating separates these teams by 3.49 points (Baltimore at 6.54 and Tennessee at 2.75).
Aaron Rodgers and Patrick Mahomes have been atop the Passing NEP leaderboard for quite some time, but the final week saw Mahomes resting on the bench and Rodgers throw four touchdowns, which gave Rodgers the regular-season Passing NEP title.
Rodgers also finishes better than Mahomes in Passing NEP per drop back. Oddly enough, Mahomes did put up more Total NEP due to outpacing Aaron by 11.8 Rushing NEP.
Rodgers’ strong play to finish the season has put him in the driver’s seat for a well-deserved MVP, as he has the best odds of winning the award, according to Fanduel Sportsbook.
The battle between these two quarterbacks may not be over, too, as FanDuel Sportsbook has the Packers and Chiefs meeting in the Superbowl as the most likely matchup.
Enjoy the playoffs, everyone!
