Fantasy Football: 3 Things We Learned in Week 13

Perhaps more than anything, fantasy football is a game of adjustments. Season-long fantasy doesn't end at the draft, and smart managers learn to take the trends and data that each week of games offers and apply it to their roster decisions moving forward.

This weekly piece will look at trends from the previous slate of games and determine which trends in snaps, usage, and matchups are actionable moving forward.

Mayfield Baking Up Some Play-Action Goodness

We may have just seen one of the best games of Baker Mayfield's career on Sunday, and what's interesting is that he actually had the majority of it at halftime when he racked up four touchdown passes on the way to a 38-7 halftime score against what was supposed to be a competitive Tennessee Titans team.

The Cleveland Browns took their foot off the gas in the second half, so we were left to wonder what Mayfield could have done had the game been competitive the entire way through. But there is one thing we can be certain of as we progress into the fantasy playoffs -- Mayfield is baking right now, and the Browns have found their secret weapon: the play-action pass.

There were clues going into this season that Kevin Stefanski was going to feature Mayfield more with this offensive strategy, considering how much more effective he has been with play-action than with the more traditional drop-back pass. With Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt at the top of their games this season, the Browns have been able to fully unleash one of the most effective plays in football.

This is a list of the quarterbacks with the most play-action passing yards on the season, and Mayfield checks in at number five, even though he is only 20th in overall total passing yards on the season. What these quarterbacks have in common is a strong run presence that forces the defense to stay honest and attentive to the offensive line because of the constant threat of the run. This has been the Browns' bread and butter so far.

Mayfield ranks sixth in percent of passes that come from play-action this season (30%), up from just under 25% last season. The result has been 11 passing touchdowns in the last three games that the Browns have not played in torrential weather. If Cleveland continues to follow this offensive philosophy, we may finally consistently see the elite production that led Mayfield to be the first overall pick three years ago.

Cam Akers is Not a League Winner Just Yet

After lighting up the Arizona Cardinals for 72 rushing yards and 22 receiving yards on Sunday, it might be tempting to say that heralded rookie Cam Akers will finally be the new Los Angeles Rams' featured back. Akers played 52 snaps on Sunday, a massive number for a running back. In fact, only three rushers played more snaps on Sunday.

However, what is hidden underneath the strong performance is the context that allowed Akers to succeed against the Cardinals. Darrell Henderson left early with an injury and managed only three rush attempts -- one of which was a 38-yard masterful touchdown run. Henderson also out-targeted Akers 3-1 despite missing most of the game. All of Akers' receiving yards came on one target that managed to get him in space.

I've written before about the jumbled mess that is the Rams' backfield, and even though it looks like we finally had a player separate from the pack on Sunday, it masks the reality that this could continue to be a frustrating committee. Henderson was not listed on the Rams' estimated practice report on Monday, implying his injury is not serious, and he will return for the game against the New England Patriots.

The Patriots are just middle of the pack in terms of fantasy points allowed to running backs, but they are one of the slower-paced teams in the league, so Akers is going to have to show it in back to back weeks for me to consider him a new bell-cow back.

Playoff Pass-Funnels

There is a pretty simple formula to determine which running backs make our starting lineup, especially as we enter the fantasy playoffs. Are they projected to receive a bulk of the workload? Do they have a reasonable matchup? Do they get passing or goal-line work? If rushers check these boxes, it's a simple click into our lineups.

For wide receivers, the equation is much more complicated. Various factors must be considered, such as target share, team total, individual matchup, weather, injuries, team tendencies, etc. With that in mind, and with 13 weeks of data to support defensive outcomes, several teams have emerged from the pack as defensive pass funnels.

Below are the nine teams who have allowed at least ~90 more total fantasy points to wide receivers than running backs this season.

After the Dallas Cowboys, there is a significant drop-off to the Miami Dolphins, who have only allowed 70 more fantasy points to receivers. This (roughly) 90-point cutoff means that these teams allow at least 7.5 more fantasy points per week to receivers than they do to running backs in a half-point per reception setting.

As you consider tough wide receiver roster decisions during these early playoff weeks, keep these teams in mind as ones that funnel productive offensive plays through the opposing team's wide receivers.

An example of this would be the Tampa Bay Buccaneers' wide receiver corps. In Weeks 14 through 17, they face the Minnesota Vikings, Detroit Lions, and Atlanta Falcons (twice). It's been a tough decision lately to determine whether to start players like Antonio Brown or Chris Godwin, but these cakewalk matchups in the fantasy playoffs should give us confidence that multiple Bucs receivers can have huge games.