NFL Weather Report: Week 5

Week 4 was nothing but chaos. It opened with the pandemic affecting multiple games, including one postponement. Then the games happened, and injuries -- to guys like Nick Chubb and Austin Ekeler -- once again shifted the landscape of fantasy football.

We expected a rollercoaster of a season, and the surprises keep coming as we continue to get more news ahead of the upcoming slate.

Week 5 sets up similarly. Two games have already been rescheduled due to players testing positive for COVID-19. Fantasy managers are intently waiting for practice report updates on injured players. Luckily, the weather isn’t a major concern for the upcoming games. I found a few games worth monitoring ahead of Sunday, but nothing to suggest fantasy managers should have backup plans due to the conditions.


Below are the games with weather concerns headed into Week 5:

Game Temperature (Feels Like) Chance of Precipitation Wind
Raiders at Chiefs 83 0.0% 14 mph SSE
Dolphins at 49ers 71 0.0% 14 mph NNW
Bengals at Ravens 74 44.0% 7 mph SE
Rams at Washington 70 53.8% 4 mph SE
Vikings at Seahawks 53 59.0% 9 mph S

Games Impacted by Wind

Las Vegas Raiders (21-point implied total) at Kansas City Chiefs (34)

Miami Dolphins (21.25) at San Francisco 49ers (30.25)

Forecasted wind speeds are below our typical threshold of 15 MPH, but both are worth monitoring as we get closer to Sunday. In the case of the Chiefs’ game, wind velocity is projected to steadily tick up as the contest progresses. Best-case scenario would keep the pressure differential minimized, which would help maintain lower wind speeds throughout the game. Let’s hope for the same in Santa Clara.

The 49ers’ matchup against the Dolphins will start with higher winds that will trail off throughout. Ideally, any concerns will be eliminated by halftime, allowing both offenses to operate as they normally would. Regardless, the wind conditions pose minimal risk assuming they stay at their current levels.

Arrowhead Stadium stands at 260 feet with a 137.2-degree azimuth (points northwest to southeast). The stadium actually dips at both ends which would allow stronger winds into the stadium, but the southeast winds should create a head or tailwind. The height of the 49ers' stadium (176 feet) should also provide enough coverage to prevent any additional interference from the elements.

Games Impacted by Rain

Cincinnati Bengals (19-point implied total) at Baltimore Ravens (32)

Los Angeles Rams (27) at Washington Football Team (19.5)

Minnesota Vikings (25.25) at Seattle Seahawks (32)

The rain isn’t a major concern for any game, but we’ll consult our reference table to confirm.

ConditionPrecipitation (inches per hour)
Light Rain.01 - .1
Moderate.1 - .3
Heavy Rain>= .3

Both games in Maryland are expected to see no more than 0.02 inches per hour of rain. From our view at home, the precipitation will likely be invisible. On-field conditions will see a similar negligible effect. Baltimore and Washington use grass instead of turf for their playing surfaces, but the light rain should keep the focus on the opposing offenses from a fantasy perspective.

Seattle’s forecasted game-time conditions are slightly worse, but they aren’t a big concern. The maximum precipitation rate is projected to be 0.04 inches per hour. Storms are expected to be in the area throughout the game with the rain subsiding in the fourth quarter. We’ve seen this before. Week 1 and Week 3 in 2019 featured similar conditions with game-changing slips and costly fumbles that changed the game. The overall impact shouldn't be too big, but it's a forecast to watch.