2020 NFL Power Rankings: Week 4
Patrick Mahomes brought the magic (again); the Atlanta Falcons blew another lead; and bad things happened in Philadelphia. Let’s see how Week 3’s action shook up numberFire’s Power Rankings
Risers and Fallers
Minshew-mania was brewing ahead of the Thursday night matchup when Gardner Minshew and the Jacksonville Jaguars took on Ryan Fitzpatrick and the Miami Dolphins. But Fitz-magic reigned supreme en route to Miami’s 31-13 win. Fitzpatrick's performance in Week 3 ended up ranking him third in Passing Net Expected Points (NEP) per drop back for the week. The win bumped the Dolphins from last to 23rd in our rankings.
The largest fallers were cases of the poor getting poorer. Jacksonville, on the other end of Thursday night’s drubbing, fell five spots, and the Denver Broncos -- reeling with quarterback issues -- also fell five spots after losing 28-10 to Tampa Bay Buccaneers. But it was the Baltimore Ravens that had the largest nERD rating fall, dropping 3.97 points from last week and losing their spot atop the rankings.
Here are our Week 3 NFL Power Rankings:
Teams Ranked 32nd to 23rd
| Rank | Team | nERD | Record | Playoff Odds | Rank Change | Off. NEP Rank | Def. NEP Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 32 | New York Jets | -9.62 | 0-3 | 0.40% | -1 | 32 | 23 |
| 31 | New York Giants | -8.98 | 0-3 | 1.60% | -4 | 30 | 22 |
| 30 | Houston Texans | -6.07 | 0-3 | 12.90% | -4 | 25 | 32 |
| 29 | Jacksonville Jaguars | -5.88 | 1-2 | 5.70% | -5 | 20 | 26 |
| 28 | Detroit Lions | -5.5 | 1-2 | 6.40% | 1 | 23 | 31 |
| 27 | Cincinnati Bengals | -5.22 | 0-2-1 | 4.30% | 3 | 26 | 13 |
| 26 | Denver Broncos | -4.96 | 0-3 | 3.30% | -5 | 29 | 15 |
| 25 | Philadelphia Eagles | -4.65 | 0-2-1 | 28.30% | 0 | 31 | 20 |
| 24 | Carolina Panthers | -4.25 | 1-2 | 9.00% | 4 | 22 | 14 |
| 23 | Miami Dolphins | -3.71 | 1-2 | 11.40% | 9 | 15 | 17 |
Adam Gase’s hyperdrive malfunctioned. The New York Jets are now at the bottom of our rankings with a nERD rating of -9.62. The Jets' offense has been abysmal, ranking dead last in Total NEP (32nd passing and 30th rushing). Here is the Jets’ Adjusted NEP per play after each of the first three weeks:
| After Week | Opponent | Adjusted NEP per Play |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | BUF | 0.01 |
| 2 | SF | -0.03 |
| 3 | IND | -0.14 |
New York Giants fans shouldn't point any fingers at their crosstown rivals after Big Blue's blowout loss to the San Francisco 49ers. That offense managed a league-worst 33.96% Success Rate in Week 3. Daniel Jones’ turnover problems are still evident after he gave away the ball two more times.
Teams Ranked 22nd to 13th
| Rank | Team | nERD | Record | Playoff Odds | Rank Change | Off. NEP Rank | Def. NEP Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Washington Football Team | -3.58 | 1-2 | 21.80% | 0 | 28 | 5 |
| 21 | Atlanta Falcons | -2.62 | 0-3 | 11.90% | -1 | 18 | 29 |
| 20 | Cleveland Browns | -2.05 | 2-1 | 33.20% | 3 | 24 | 16 |
| 19 | Las Vegas Raiders | -1.93 | 2-1 | 33.00% | -1 | 8 | 28 |
| 18 | Minnesota Vikings | -0.94 | 0-3 | 13.50% | 1 | 13 | 30 |
| 17 | Los Angeles Chargers | -0.15 | 1-2 | 32.00% | -1 | 27 | 7 |
| 16 | Arizona Cardinals | -0.15 | 2-1 | 36.20% | 1 | 19 | 8 |
| 15 | Dallas Cowboys | -0.05 | 1-2 | 60.20% | -1 | 17 | 27 |
| 14 | Chicago Bears | 0.84 | 3-0 | 63.90% | 2 | 16 | 10 |
| 13 | New Orleans Saints | 1.87 | 1-2 | 73.00% | -3 | 11 | 25 |
Another week, another blown lead for the Falcons -- this time against the Chicago Bears (now led by Nick Foles). This one wasn't quite as dramatic as Atlanta's Week 2 Loss to the Dallas Cowboys, but it was another tough one. When the Falcons punted the ball to the Bears with a 16-point lead with 9:05 in the 4th quarter, numberFire’s win probability model gave Chicago a 16.05% chance of a comeback.
After the Falcons scored a touchdown on the first drive of the second half, none of their subsequent seven drives went further than 40 yards (and four of those drives gained fewer than five yards).
Teams Ranked 12th to 1st
| Rank | Team | nERD | Record | Playoff Odds | Rank Change | Off. NEP Rank | Def. NEP Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Tennessee Titans | 2.16 | 3-0 | 74.40% | -3 | 7 | 18 |
| 11 | Seattle Seahawks | 2.65 | 3-0 | 88.90% | 0 | 5 | 21 |
| 10 | Buffalo Bills | 2.9 | 3-0 | 73.10% | -2 | 4 | 19 |
| 9 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 4.27 | 2-1 | 68.10% | 3 | 21 | 3 |
| 8 | Green Bay Packers | 4.69 | 3-0 | 91.60% | -3 | 1 | 24 |
| 7 | Indianapolis Colts | 5.19 | 2-1 | 60.80% | 6 | 14 | 1 |
| 6 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 5.44 | 3-0 | 84.30% | 1 | 10 | 4 |
| 5 | Los Angeles Rams | 5.6 | 2-1 | 61.30% | -3 | 2 | 11 |
| 4 | New England Patriots | 5.85 | 2-1 | 82.50% | 2 | 6 | 9 |
| 3 | Baltimore Ravens | 6.89 | 2-1 | 91.20% | -2 | 12 | 6 |
| 2 | Kansas City Chiefs | 7.39 | 3-0 | 97.70% | 2 | 3 | 12 |
| 1 | San Francisco 49ers | 8.65 | 2-1 | 64.40% | 2 | 9 | 2 |
The Indianapolis Colts now have the top-ranked defense by our numbers. The two pick-sixes off of the struggling Sam Darnold definitely helped, and Indy's schedule is bound to get tougher eventually as they've faced Minshew, Kirk Cousins and Darnold so far.
Philip Rivers passed career milestones in passing yards and became one of only six players in NFL history to see 60,000 passing yards and 400 touchdowns. After three weeks, he has the highest Passing Success Rate in the NFL at 59.57%. Dadgum.
In one of the most-hyped games of the season, Kansas City was once again kryptonite for Lamar Jackson and the Ravens. The Chiefs' prize for taking down Baltimore is Bill Belichick and the Patriots coming to town in Week 4. This matchup has the smallest nERD rating differential between any two teams playing in Week 4, so it seems we’re in for another treat come Sunday.
The game with the widest nERD gap (13.67 points) this week is Baltimore traveling down I-95 to take on the Washington Football Team. NFL odds currently has the Ravens favored by 13 points. Baltimore’s defense is much better than Cleveland's, and the Browns forced five turnovers against The Football Team last week. Add in the fact that Baltimore is likely pretty angry over their recent loss, and things could get out of hand quickly.
The 49ers now sit atop our rankings thanks to the stellar performance by Nick Mullens in Week 3. Wait, what?
Mullens finished second to Mahomes in Week 3 in Passing NEP, racking up 343 yards and a touchdown on 36 attempts. The 49ers are 7.0-point favorites against Philly in Week 4.
