Can Greg Olsen Regain Fantasy Football Relevancy in Seattle?
Greg Olsen will be playing for his third team in 13 years and first since joining Carolina in 2010. Olsen inked a one-year deal with the Seattle Seahawks worth $7 million, with $5.5 million of that coming in guarantees. He'll be playing with the most talented quarterback of his career in Russell Wilson, but sharing the load with two other talented tight ends bring the question to Olsen's fantasy impact.
Will Dissly and Jacob Hollister combined for over 100 fantasy points last season in standard leagues and 135 in full-point PPR -- numbers Olsen has failed to reach in three consecutive seasons. Olsen finished 2019 ranked 13th overall (97.7) in half-point PPR leagues and 15th in standard leagues (71.7) -- when he had Kyle Allen and Cam Newton under center. What can we expect from the crafty veteran entering the Seahawks starting lineup or is there nothing to expect?
Olsen's ADP was 176.72 in BestBall10s May mock drafts -- falling to the end of the 14th round in 12-team leagues. As the TE25 per BestBalls10s, and at 35-years-old, Olsen is becoming irrelevant in fantasy football, and teammates Will Dissly and Jacob Hollister are hoping to keep it that way.
The two, now backup tight ends finished 30th and 32nd overall in standard formats last season recording over 50 points apiece in standard leagues. Seattle also added rookie Colby Parkinson in the fourth-round from Stanford and Stephen Sullivan from LSU in the seventh.
Olsen was surely brought in for his veteran experience and history of playoff performances. In nine playoff games, seven with Carolina, Olsen caught 41 passes for 631 yards and 3 touchdowns. numberFire's projections peg Olsen's 2020 regular season to end with the 20th-most fantasy points (69.74) coming off 41.83 receptions, 66.3 targets, 466.66 receiving yards, and 3.91 touchdowns.
Olsen could be the only tight end of the three to find himself drafted in 12-men leagues, but in dynasty leagues, he should be a last resort. Dissly's ADP, however, has fallen to 224.9, making him a 19th round pick in a 12-man league, if your draft goes that deep and Hollister at 260.4, which makes him a free agent and watch list contender.
At Olsen's age, injuries are going to be a concern and both Dissly and Hollister are worth keeping an eye on if he misses any time.
Olsen has missed 18 games since 2017 but played his healthiest season since 2016 with 14 games last year. Dissly's readiness for Week 1 this season is being called into question after suffering an Achilles injury Week 6 of 2019, making Hollister quietly the fantasy favorite for the waiver wire.
Olsen's days of being a top 20 tight end are likely behind him and Dissly and Hollister's numberFire projections combine and outproduce Olsen's 69.74 with 78.14 fantasy points.
With three viable options at tight end in Seattle, don't expect Olsen to make a fantasy impact every week nor play a full 16-game season.
Which Tight End Holds The Most Value?
If you're in a standard league compared to a dynasty league, this answer could vary, but most experts should have the same opinion. The Seahawks added Carlos Hyde and Phillip Dorsett to an offense that saw tight ends receive a 20.73% share of targets last season.
Dissly made an impact right away for Seattle scoring four touchdowns on 18 receptions for 169 yards Weeks 2-4. He showed flashes versus quality defenses that he could be a well-rounded tight end and given he would have played 16 games, Dissly would have easily finished top 10 in fantasy points overall.
Hollister was acquired from the New England Patriots and he finished 2019 with 41 catches for 349 yards and three touchdowns, becoming a safety blanket for Wilson. Hollister saw five targets in eight of 12 regular and postseason in 2019 and Dissly saw the same in three of six games.
Dissly posted an impressive 85.2% catch rate and 11.4 yards per reception as a vertical threat at tight end. Hollister on the other hand recorded 68.5% catch rate with Seattle and was more of an intermediate threat with 8.5 yards per reception per PlayerProfiler.
Dissly saw 27 targets in six games and Hollister 59 in 10 regular-season games, both getting a decent sample size with the 2019 Second Team All-Pro Wilson. It's unclear who he prefers but he managed to find a rhythm and trust with both tight ends despite having limited to no experience in the offense.
Reading routinely from Seattle media outlets on how Dissly is returning from his Achilles injury will be instrumental to whether you should take action and draft him in fantasy this season. Dissly is the best buy of the bunch in dynasty leagues, as he has proved his worth with the Seahawks offense last season. Hollister should be on everyone's watch list in all league formats moving forward as he's one injury away from being the go-to tight end in Seattle.
In standard and PPR non-dynasty leagues, Olsen will be the favorite to start and see the majority of the passes but it won't last long before Dissly or Hollister come knocking at the door. I'd avoid Olsen altogether this season and keep my eyes on the waiver wire week in and week out for Dissly and Hollister.
There's a solid chance both Dissly and Hollister can become a duo used similar to Zach Ertz and Dallas Goedert in Philadelphia as soon as 2021, but for 2020, avoid Seattle's tight end situation entirely unless someone goes down with an injury.