NFL Draft Betting: Will Derrick Brown Jump Into the Top 5?
One of the hottest names over the past few days in the NFL Draft has been Derrick Brown, the defensive tackle out of Auburn. The 6-foot-5, 326-pound force of a man was an AP All-American, First-Team All-SEC, and a finalist for both the Chuck Bednarik Award and Outland Trophy last season. The Tigers' tackle tied for the team-lead with 12.5 tackles for loss, adding four sacks and two forced fumbles.
FanDuel Sportsbook tags Brown at +340 to be a top-five selection and -700 to be a top-10 selection in the 2020 NFL Draft. His pick over/under is set at 7.5, and Brown's name can be called any time after Washington presumably selects Ohio State's Chase Young No. 2 overall. Let's go over his potential landing spots and what's the best bet if you're putting your money on the Auburn big man.
Room Full of Possibilities
The NFL Draft will be virtual, so trades could be a difficult task, but the teams that are targeting Brown must be all-in to move up.
A week ago, I had Brown mocked 13th-overall to San Francisco, but since then, there are reports of teams inside the top-nine that are looking to land him. Teams selecting in the top five that are viable options are the Detroit Lions (No. 3) and the Miami Dolphins (No. 5). Miami is looking to move ahead of the New York Giants, who draft at No. 4, while the Los Angeles Chargers at No. 6 are another possibility to do the same.
Brown had a 90.4 Pro Football Focus pass-rush grade, with 20 hurries, 10 quarterback hits, and 4 sacks last season. He's the only defensive tackle to have more than 30 tackles for loss or no gain since 2017, and he had an impressive 54 run stops over his last two seasons. He's a 5-tech player with a high ceiling and high motor that's a versatile enough defender to be used as a nose tackle in the 3-4 or with his hands down in dirt as a right/left defensive tackle in a 4-3 set.
That versatility should put him in the top three for most teams' best defensive players after OSU's Young. Player Profiler compares Brown to Minnesota Vikings' Linval Joseph, while NFL.com tags his comparison as ex-Panthers lineman Kris Jenkins. Both defensive lineman were second round draft picks and outplayed their production as important pieces to their respective defensive lines.
The Lions, Dolphins, Chargers are all ideal landing spots for Brown, but the same can be said for Clemson's Isaiah Simmons or Ohio State's Jeff Okudah in those spots. The Las Vegas Raiders and 49ers both have two first round picks that could move them up into the top 10, as they're potential suitors for Brown if they miss out on the wide receiver market. Brown's over/under is set at 7.5 meaning his last resort would be Carolina, who is in need of a defensive specimen like Brown at No. 7.
Ideally, Brown has to be selected before Simmons, Okudah, quarterbacks Tua Tagovailoa and Justin Herbert, and offensive linemen Tristan Wirfs, Jedrick Wills, and Andrew Thomas, who have been consistently mocked in the top 10.
That's a lot to ask for, but is it a lock?
The best bet of the three odds for Brown seem to be his under 7.5 at -180, as Simmons, Okudah, and a quarterback will likely go before him. That's five picks off the board, leaving Brown versus Herbert and two offensive lineman as the likely options at No. 6-8. One team could absolutely shock us and take Brown before one of the other defensive players, but with trades likely tied to his draft fate, Brown's most likely landing spots will be either Detroit, Miami or Carolina.
The Under 7.5 (-180) is the best bet of all his selections, as a top-five selection is too risky. If he does land in the top-five, surely +340 is a tough profit to lose out on, but with all the recent steam on Brown's draft stock rising, take the sure money on him to be drafted before the No. 8 overall selection.