4 NFL DraftKings Values for Week 14
Fantasy value can be defined in so many ways. In season-long leagues, one might determine value by looking at output compared to draft position. In daily leagues, we're often looking at output per $1,000 in salary.
Finding cheap players who can bust out for big games is pivotal to fitting in high-priced players such as Patrick Mahomes and Christian McCaffrey, and it is a key component of tournament-winning lineups.
Everyone has their own idea of where the salary cutoff for a value player is. For DraftKings, this article looks at quarterbacks who are priced at or under $6,000, running backs and wide receivers priced at or under $5,000, and tight ends priced at or under $4,000.
Some value players jump out and will have wildly high ownership, while others aren't as obvious. To make your decisions easier, we're here to crunch the numbers and do our best to point out those bargains to you.
So, what are we waiting for? Let's go digging for value!
Derek Carr, QB, Oakland Raiders
DraftKings Price: $5,000
Projected Points: 17.1
Projected Value (points per $1,000): 3.41
If you've watched the Oakland Raiders and Kansas City Chiefs rivalry over the years, then you would not have been surprised by Derek Carr's complete dud last week. In six away games against the Chiefs, Carr has topped out at 12.44 DraftKings points, thrown for a max of 222 yards, has just four touchdown passes to seven interceptions, and has been sacked 19 times.
Fortunately for Carr, that game only comes once per year. This week he has a much easier matchup when he faces the Tennessee D/ST, a unit that has given up the second most passing yards per game over the past five weeks of the NFL season.
The Titans have allowed a 300-yard passer in four of their past six weeks. They've given up fewer than 15 DraftKings points to the position just three times this season, and Nick Foles' 14.88 in Week 12 was the fewest the team has given up since Week 6.
Carr doesn't get any benefit from playing at home, as his 14.8-DraftKings-point average in Oakland is the exact same as he's averaged on the road this year. He might have to shoulder more of the load there than usual this week, however.
Josh Jacobs missed practice on Thursday, his second absence in a row. Given that he's been playing through a fractured shoulder for several weeks (shoulder more of the load -- get it? Don't worry, I'll leave.), they may give the rookie a chance to heal up this week.
Oakland is passing just 54.5% of the time this year. Last year, that stood at 61.1%. While you can't expect Jon Gruden to fully revert to what he did last year if Jacobs does sit, Jalen Richard and DeAndre Washington aren't exactly at the same level as Jacobs; barring some weird defensive or special teams scores that get them up big early, the Raiders should be passing more this week in the event of a Jacobs absence.
We project Carr for 17.1 DraftKings points, which would make him our third-highest-projected point-per-dollar value play of the week at quarterback. If you're looking to pay up for multiple studs at other position, Carr makes a lot of sense as a punt signal caller.
Patrick Laird, RB, Miami Dolphins
DraftKings Price: $4,100
Projected Points: 11.8
Projected Value (points per $1,000): 2.87
Next man up. That has been the mantra in South Florida this season.
The Miami Dolphins have already gone through Kenyan Drake (traded), Mark Walton (cut), and Kalen Ballage (injury). That leaves Patrick Laird as the next man up as Miami tries to get its fourth win in their past six games.
Laird's matchup won't be easy. The New York Jets are giving up the fewest PPR points per game to opposing backs over the past five weeks, but it's mostly been due to their ability to limit the ground game.
Joe Mixon's 44 yards last week were the most an opposing carrier has accumulated against the Jets since Leonard Fournette's 76 rushing yards in Week 8. Fournette's performance is one of only three of at least 70 yards this season. It's not exactly a prime spot for Laird, a guy who got five yards on 10 carries last week.
Laird's bread and butter, however, is in the passing game, which is where the Jets have shown some weakness. Opposing backs have at least four catches in a game 11 times against New York this season; their 76 receptions allowed to the position are the third-most entering Week 14.
Laird excelled as a receiver in college, catching 96 passes over his final two years there. It's translated to his NFL game, even in the limited work he's seen. He has had four or more receptions in two of his past three games, going for at least 11.8 DraftKings points in those contests, which is, coincidentally, exactly where we project him to finish this week. He's our fourth-highest projected value at running back this week.
Larry Fitzgerald, WR, Arizona Cardinals
DraftKings Price: $4,700
Projected Points: 11.3
Projected Value (points per $1,000): 2.40
If you're looking for a cheaper wide receiver play who should be able to provide you a solid floor, you could do worse than the ageless Larry Fitzgerald.
The Arizona Cardinals' receiver is far from his elite days, but that's not to say he hasn't been effective. He's on pace for 81.3 catches and 865.3 yards, which would easily eclipse the 69 grabs and 734 yards he accumulated last year. It would be his 11th 80-catch season, leaving him just one behind Jerry Rice for the most such seasons in history.
Fitz has double-digit DraftKings points (at least 11.6) in eight of his 12 games this year, including each of his past three contests. He's putting up 14.2 DraftKings points per game and averaging 5.7 receptions at home, compared to just 10.7 and 4.5, respectively, on the road this year.
The Pittsburgh Steelers' passing defense on the road has been nothing close to what they've done at home. At home, they're averaging 5.0 sacks, 1.4 interceptions, and allowing averages of 212.6 passing yards, a tiny 4.5 average net yards per attempt (ANY/A), and a 76.9 rating. On the road, they are averaging just 1.6 sacks, 0.8 interceptions, allowing 271.0 passing yards, 7.6 ANY/A, and a 93.1 rating.
We currently have Fitz forecasted for 11.3 DraftKings points with a projected upside of 22.3.
Noah Fant, TE, Denver Broncos
DraftKings Price: $3,400
Projected Points: 9.6
Projected Value (points per $1,000): 2.81
Noah Fant has had a lot going against him the past three games. He's faced two of the top-eight defenses in terms of PPR points allowed to tight ends (including the number-one Buffalo Bills), had to deal with an ineffective Brandon Allen, and then saw a quarterback change to Drew Lock, a rookie quarterback who was passable -- though not fantasy friendly (outside of Courtland Sutton) -- in Week 13.
There may be some room to work this week against the Houston Texans, but temper your expectations. The Texans are giving up the 22nd-most DraftKings points per game to the position, not exactly a team you are going to target for a massive game. They have given up consistent, flex-level points to the position, however.
Since Week 5, an opposing tight end has at least four catches for 41 yards (8.1 DraftKings points) in six of the Texans' eight games, and they gave up a touchdown in one of the other two weeks. The only time in those eight weeks that that didn't happen was last week, when Tom Brady was keying in heavily on Julian Edelman and James White in a losing effort.
This is not an easy week to find tight end value, and in truth, you may be better off just paying up at the position. If you do decide to punt, however, Fant represents a high-risk, medium-reward dart throw who could help your team in tournaments (and tournaments only). numberFire projects him for 2.8 DraftKings points per $1,000, which makes him our second-highest projected value at the position this week.