Fantasy Football: Gdula's Game Notes for Week 10

We have 10 games on the main slate this week. A few look like no-doubt shootouts, but there are a lot of spots that aren't quite so obvious.

Of course, numberFire has no shortage of tools -- lineup generators, fantasy projections, and more -- to help you round out your rosters, but some extra prep never hurt anyone. So, here are some notes to know about each and every game on FanDuel's main slate for Week 10.

The Slate

Arizona at Tampa Bay
Kansas City at Tennessee
NY Giants at NY Jets
Baltimore at Cincinnati
Detroit at Chicago
Buffalo at Cleveland
Atlanta at New Orleans
Miami at Indianapolis
LA Rams at Pittsburgh
Carolina at Green Bay

Arizona at Tampa Bay

Game Overview
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are the NFL's best rush defense, so we could be looking at a lot of Kyler Murray ($7,700) against the 22nd-ranked adjusted pass defense in the league. The heavy over/under and top-eight paces make this a shootout worth stacking all types of ways.

Arizona Offense Notes
- David Johnson ($6,800) should be back in time for a matchup with the NFL's best rush defense by Adjusted Defensive Rushing Net Expected Points (NEP) per play and Rushing Success Rate allowed to running backs, all while dealing with Kenyan Drake ($6,400). Drake played 84.0% of snaps last week without Johnson, and a committee is all but guaranteed to some degree.
- Murray showed well against a top-tier pass defense on Thursday night in Week 9 and now faces a Bucs defense that's below average in adjusted pass defense and 24th in adjusted pressure rate. Weirdly, Murray has thrown for multiple touchdowns in four games and zero touchdowns in five games. He grades out as a top-five play in my simulations.
- In two games with Christian Kirk ($5,700) back from injury, he has a 29.1% target share, and Larry Fitzgerald ($5,400) is a distant second at 14.5%. Kirk's air yards share is 37.8% in that sample, too. Fitzgerald has just 7.0%.

Tampa Bay Offense Notes
- Mike Evans ($8,600) is priced way up and should face shadow coverage from Patrick Peterson. Evans still has 4 inches and 30 pounds on Peterson and owns elite usage by way of a 39.4% air yards share and 27.9% target share in the Bucs' offense. By comparison, Chris Godwin ($8,200) is at 23.9% in each category but has an easier matchup in the slot, as the Arizona Cardinals rank 30th in yards per slot snap allowed.
- Jameis Winston ($7,900) gets a plus matchup against a team that ranks 28th against the pass but is 13th in adjusted pressure rate. Winston isn't particularly efficient but slings it deep at the seventh-highest rate in the league and is up against a team that's bottom-five in defending the deep ball.
- Ronald Jones ($6,300) just played 53.2% of snaps and had 20 opportunities. As part of game stacks, he's viable, but that's all for me. Same for O.J. Howard ($5,000).

Core Plays: Christian Kirk, Kyler Murray, Jameis Winston, Mike Evans, Chris Godwin
Secondary Plays: None
Tournament Plays: David Johnson, Ronald Jones, O.J. Howard

Kansas City at Tennessee

Game Overview
- The total is high enough to consider stacking both sides of this thing, even though the Tennessee Titans are notoriously difficult to rely on in daily fantasy. Patrick Mahomes' ($8,400) return should be enough for this thing to get revved up, and while the majority of bets are on the under, the heavy money is on the over.

Kansas City Offense Notes
- Mahomes ($8,400) may not be 100%, but he's still enticing enough for us to buy into the offense on the road against a top-12 pass defense. Mahomes himself is priced down for the matchup and injury. We can't completely trust him as a core play, but at worst, he's a secondary option on this slate.
- Given injuries to Mahomes, Tyreek Hill ($8,000), and Sammy Watkins' ($6,400) throughout the season, it's tough to pinpoint the expected distribution this week. In four games since returning, Hill has 24.2% of the targets and 54.2% of the air yards. In two games since his return, Watkins has a 26.1% target share and 21.4% of the team's air yards. The past two weeks with both healthy, Hill and Travis Kelce ($6,700) have a 24.6% target share, and Watkins is at 24.2%. They're all standouts, and Kelce faces a Titans defense that is 23rd in Target Success Rate allowed to tight ends.
- Damien Williams ($6,000) played 71.7% of snaps last week and handled 14 carries, including a 91-yard touchdown run. The Kansas City Chiefs' backfield is always a mess, but with Mahomes back, the touchdown equity is up, and he's worth a dice roll in tournaments.

Tennessee Titans Offense Notes
- Derrick Henry ($7,000) is a home underdog but gets a matchup with the NFL's 31st-ranked defense by Rushing Success Rate, and he has had an average of 20.1 opportunities per game. He has yet to top three targets in a game, so he's a shaky play in likely negative script.
- While Ryan Tannehill ($7,200) has been a top-eight passer on a per-pass-attempt basis, he struggles under pressure and loses a lot of expected points on sacks. Kansas City is 11th in adjusted pressure rate.
- Tannehill's target distribution in three starts: 18.2% to Corey Davis ($5,300) and A.J. Brown ($5,500), 15.2% to Jonnu Smith ($5,100), and 14.1% to Adam Humphries ($5,300). Davis has the best air yards share in that sample (27.6%) but is doubtful. Delanie Walker is out, so we can bump up A.J. Brown and Jonnu Smith, especially in game stacks.

Core Plays: Travis Kelce, Sammy Watkins, Tyreek Hill
Secondary Plays: Patrick Mahomes
Tournament Plays: Damien Williams, A.J. Brown, Jonnu Smith, Derrick Henry

NY Giants at NY Jets

Game Overview
- A low-40s total but two bottom-12 pass defenses could make for a fun stack, one that isn't heavily owned overall. Mini-stacks, at least, make sense, and the action is on the over.

NY Giants Offense Notes
- Saquon Barkley ($8,600) has averaged 17.0 rushes and 7.7 targets in three games since returning from injury. The New York Jets do rank fourth in adjusted rush defense but are dealing with injuries. He's an anchor play.
- Evan Engram ($6,400) is week to week with a foot sprain and seems unlikely to play.
- In four games without Sterling Shepard, Golden Tate ($6,300) leads the team with a 24.8% target share, followed by Saquon Barkley at 15.9% and Engram at 13.8%. Tate has six deep targets in this span, while Darius Slayton ($5,600) has nine (Barkley and Engram each have one). The Jets have a bad rap against the pass (they're 26th in adjusted pass defense) but do grade out top-12 in Target Success Rate allowed to receivers and tight ends.
- Daniel Jones ($7,400) has averaged respectable numbers against five bottom-half pass defenses: 266.1 yards, 1.8 touchdowns, and 0.6 interceptions.

NY Jets Offense Notes
- Le'Veon Bell ($6,900) runs behind a line that has generated the fewest yards before contact for running backs all season and faces a top-11 rush defense by Adjusted Rushing NEP per play and Rushing Success Rate allowed to backs. However, he has a 20.6% target share, and the New York Giants are 28th in Target Success Rate allowed to backs.
- Sam Darnold ($7,200) -- in three games against bottom-half pass defenses -- has averaged 272.0 yards per game and 1.7 touchdowns (with 1.7 picks) and below-average passing efficiency even adjusted for those opponents.
- In four games with Darnold back, the target distribution has been: 22.0% for Jamison Crowder ($6,500), 20.5% for Robby Anderson ($5,900), 17.3% for Demaryius Thomas ($4,700), and 15.0% for Le'Veon Bell -- with the deep passes favoring Anderson (11), Thomas (10), Crowder (6), and Vyncint Smith ($4,700; 5).
- Ryan Griffin ($5,100) has averaged 91.0% of snaps this season and has 3, 2, 4, and 8 targets since Darnold's return, but the Giants are eighth in Target Success Rate allowed to the position.

Core Plays: Saquon Barkley, Le'Veon Bell, Golden Tate
Secondary Plays: Daniel Jones, Darius Slayton
Tournament Plays: Robby Anderson

Baltimore at Cincinnati

Game Overview
- A blowout in the making could lead to disappointing production, as the Baltimore Ravens rank 31st in pass rate over expectation and can evaporate the game clock against the NFL's 20th-ranked adjusted rush defense.

Baltimore Offense Notes
- Lamar Jackson ($8,600) just carved up the NFL's best pass defense and now faces a bottom-four unit. He rates out as the best value and floor/ceiling combo quarterback on the slate, per my projections.
- The rest of the offense isn't overly inspiring.
- Marquise Brown ($5,300) returned to play 57.1% of snaps last week for 10 air yards on 4 targets. Notably, Mark Andrews ($6,800) played 34.3% after averaging 49.8% prior to the bye. The Cincinnati Bengals are 22nd in Target Success Rate allowed to wideouts and tight ends.
- Mark Ingram ($8,000) is overpriced for someone who has played 38.3%, 50.9%, and 44.3% of snaps the past three games. There's tournament appeal in a blowout bid, but he's losing work to Gus Edwards ($4,800), who has played 40.7%, 37.3%, and 40.0% of snaps the past three games. I may prefer Edwards at the price.

Cincinnati Offense Notes
- The Bengals are turning it over to Ryan Finley ($6,300), who will throw his first regular season pass come Sunday. The Baltimore Ravens rank 14th in adjusted rush defense but are 31st in adjusted pressure rate. Still, it's a hard sell to go with Finley over other quarterbacks.
- Tyler Boyd ($5,700) is affordable. We just can't know what the offense will look like with Finley. They were fifth in pass rate over expectation under Andy Dalton and sixth in adjusted pace, so volume could be there in a comeback attempt.
- Joe Mixon ($6,100) faces the 26th-ranked defense in Rushing Success Rate allowed to backs, but with an implied total below 20, he's hard to justify, as well.

Core Plays: Lamar Jackson
Secondary Plays: Mark Andrews
Tournament Plays: Marquise Brown, Gus Edwards, Mark Ingram, Tyler Boyd

Detroit at Chicago

Game Overview
- I'm not worried about the Detroit Lions scoring points, but I can't say that for the Chicago Bears, and just 13% of the money has come in on the over, which is pretty tiny to begin with. That's a problem.

Detroit Offense Notes
- Matthew Stafford ($7,900) -- in three games against top-half pass defenses -- has averaged 306.7 yards, 2.3 touchdowns, and 0.3 picks, good for 0.24 Passing NEP per drop back. The NFL average against top-half opponents is 0.11. He may not play, which would lower this entire offense.
- In three games with an elevated role for Danny Amendola ($5,600), the lead target-getter is Marvin Jones ($6,600) at 23.9%, Amendola at 20.5%, and Kenny Golladay ($7,700) down at 14.5%. The deep targets favor Golladay, whose 11 in that span is first among receivers, followed by Jones (6) and Amendola (4). All are viable from a workload standpoint, though the matchup is top-10 across the board.
- T.J. Hockenson ($5,300) has had 6, 5, 1, and 7 targets the past four games, but since hitting 142 air yards in Week 1, he has maxed out at 49 (last week). The Bears are 31st in Target Success Rate allowed to tight ends.
- Ty Johnson ($5,900) had only 9 carries last week but played 62.0% of snaps, giving him 64.5%, 39.7%, and 62.0% the past three games. The volume hasn't been great, but the snap rate is better than people may realize.

Chicago Offense Notes
- Mitchell Trubisky ($6,500) ranks 32nd among 38 qualified passers in Passing NEP per drop back. The Lions rank 16th in adjusted pass defense and 20th in adjusted pressure rate. Even cutting out top-12 matchups, Trubisky is well below the league average, and that sours the whole offense.
- In three games with Trubisky back, Allen Robinson ($7,100) has a 26.7% target share (9.3 per game) and draws a top-eight receiver defense by Target Success Rate. He should be shadowed by Darius Slay, who hasn't posed enough of a threat to avoid Robinson entirely. It's a matter of Trubisky.
- Behind Robinson, it's Tarik Cohen ($5,000) with a 19.0% target share and then Anthony Miller ($4,700) at 12.4% -- so nothing useful.
- David Montgomery ($6,400) is in play at this salary after a second straight game with at least a 73.0% snap rate. The Lions rank 27th in Rushing Success Rate allowed to backs.

Core Plays: None
Secondary Plays: David Montgomery, Kenny Golladay
Tournament Plays: Matthew Stafford, Allen Robinson, Marvin Jones, T.J. Hockenson

Buffalo at Cleveland

Game Overview
- The total is low, and neither team has an abundance of great market share numbers to chase. The pass defenses and paces are mid-level; the run defenses are bad. This one could hit the under easily -- though the betting action disagrees. Winds project to be 16-plus miles per hour.

Buffalo Offense Notes
- Devin Singletary ($6,700) is priced way up, though the Cleveland Browns rank 26th in adjusted rush defense and 23rd in Rushing Success Rate allowed to running backs. While Singletary has played two-thirds of the snaps in consecutive weeks, $6,700 is steep for a back in an offense expected to score fewer than 20 points.
- The Browns are 10th in adjusted pressure rate, and the Buffalo Bills are 26th offensively. Josh Allen ($7,500) is 25th among 31 qualified passers in quarterback rating under pressure, via PFF. We'll have to track the wind. The Browns are 10th in deep-ball defense anyway.
- John Brown ($5,800) leads the team with a 24.7% target share (7.5 per game, 29th among receivers), and Cole Beasley ($5,500) is at 22.2% (6.8 per game, 41st). Brown ranks ninth in the NFL with 20 deep targets.

Cleveland Offense Notes
- Nick Chubb ($7,900) rates out well as a home favorite against a team that grades out 30th in adjusted rush defense but a better 17th in Rushing Success Rate. It remains to be seen how much Kareem Hunt ($4,500) carves into Chubb's workload (23.3 opportunities per game).
- Baker Mayfield ($7,100) has led the NFL's 25th-ranked adjusted pass offense this year and has yet to throw for multiple touchdowns in a game. The Bills have not allowed multiple touchdown passes this year, though they've faced a soft schedule.
- Odell Beckham ($6,900) figures to have shadow coverage from Tre'Davious White. Beckham owns a 25.5% target share and 36.3% of the team's air yards but has scored once on 575 receiving yards and 67 targets. Regression is inevitable, but this is a tough week to bank on it.
- Jarvis Landry ($6,000) has an identical target share to Beckham with 29.3% of the air yards and draws a better matchup, making him the preference if rostering a Browns receiver.

Core Plays: None
Secondary Plays: Nick Chubb
Tournament Plays: Jarvis Landry, Josh Allen, Odell Beckham, John Brown, Devin Singletary

Atlanta at New Orleans

Game Overview
- The total is high, but so is the spread, so we could be looking at a high-scoring blowout. Both teams are pass-heavy (top-10 in pass rate over expectation) but are bottom-eight in pace if you're looking for reasons to fade it. (Probably don't do that, though.)

Atlanta Offense Notes
- Matt Ryan ($7,500) should be good to go this week, which keeps the Atlanta Falcons' offense in play. He ranks 15th in Passing NEP per drop back but does face a New Orleans Saints defense that ranks top-10 in adjusted pass defense, pressure rate, and Passing Success Rate allowed.
- Julio Jones ($7,900) could be shadowed by Marshon Lattimore, though that's not always how the Saints approach Jones, who has gone for at least 96 yards in each of his past four games against New Orleans but hasn't scored. Via PFF, only 1 of Jones' 19 targets against New Orleans last year was credited to Lattimore's coverage. In 2017, 14 of 20 were. Jones is down to a 22.4% target share, but that's still good for 9.3 targets per game, tied for 10th among receivers. Without Mohamed Sanu in Week 8, the targets favored Jones (12), followed by 9 for Russell Gage ($4,700), 8 for Devonta Freeman ($6,200), and 7 each for Austin Hooper ($6,600) and Calvin Ridley ($5,300) -- though those came from Matt Schaub.
- Freeman has played 72.5%, 56.4%, and 80.0% of snaps the past three games but has only once broken past 16 FanDuel points and is a massive underdog. He has averaged 5.0 targets, at least.

New Orleans Offense Notes
- You have to love the Saints this week in this spot, as the Falcons are 31st in adjusted pass defense and their implied total is north of 30.
- Assuming Alvin Kamara ($8,300) returns without limitations, he's the top running back play of the slate adjusted for salary in my projections. Atlanta is 24th in Rushing Success Rate and 26th in Target Success Rate allowed to backs. Latavius Murray ($7,000) is priced out with Kamara back.
- Michael Thomas ($8,700) is also my number-one receiver, as Atlanta is 32nd in Target Success Rate allowed to the position. Thomas leads the NFL in target share (33.3%) and targets per game (11.1).
- Drew Brees ($8,300) posted elite efficiency in a Week 8 return. His targets were fixated on Latavius Murray, who had 12, and Thomas, who had 11. Of note, Ted Ginn Jr. ($5,300) saw just two targets but ran 76.7% of the routes. As a home favorite, he's in play for deep balls.
- Jared Cook ($5,800) is off the injury report, and the Saints are huge home favorites. The Falcons rate out 11th in Target Success Rate allowed to tight ends.

Core Plays: Alvin Kamara, Michael Thomas, Drew Brees, Calvin Ridley, Austin Hooper
Secondary Plays: Julio Jones, Jared Cook
Tournament Plays: Matt Ryan, Devonta Freeman, Ted Ginn Jr.

Miami at Indianapolis

Game Overview
- We could be looking at a Ryan Fitzpatrick ($7,100) versus Brian Hoyer ($7,100) showdown here, yet the total isn't all that bad considering. It's not the sexiest game, but it looks more stackable than some of the others on the slate.

Miami Offense Notes
- With Mark Walton out four weeks, Kalen Ballage ($4,600) could walk into a three-down role, though he has a poor-even-for-the-Dolphins 37.1% Rushing Success Rate. I understand the punt appeal to a degree.
- DeVante Parker ($5,800) should also see a boost without Preston Williams, who is on injured reserve. Williams had 21.1% of Fitzpatrick's targets. Parker has 20.5% entering Week 10. Allen Hurns ($4,700) and Albert Wilson ($4,500) should benefit most, though Jakeem Grant ($4,500) also could see a target boost.
- The Indianapolis Colts are 11th in adjusted pass defense but are 27th in adjusted pressure rate. Fitzpatrick has tournament appeal as a deep-ball chucker (6th in deep attempt rate).

Indianapolis Offense Notes
- We are looking at a week of Brian Hoyer under center for Indy. Hoyer had league-average efficiency numbers last week -- if we exclude a huge pick six.
- Hoyer's target distribution: 5 for Chester Rogers ($5,200); 4 for Zach Pascal ($6,400), Jack Doyle ($5,200), Parris Campbell (who is now out with a broken hand); 3 for Nyheim Hines ($4,600); 2 for Eric Ebron ($4,900) and Deon Cain ($4,500); and 1 for Mo Alie-Cox ($4,200).
- Marlon Mack ($7,400) gets a matchup with Miami's rush defense, which is 30th in Rushing Success Rate allowed to backs. He has had 21, 20, and 21 carries since the bye, and negative script seems pretty unlikely.

Core Plays: Marlon Mack
Secondary Plays: Jack Doyle
Tournament Plays: DeVante Parker, Zach Pascal, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Kalen Ballage, Eric Ebron

LA Rams at Pittsburgh

Game Overview
- Based on the two defenses in this game -- and a key injury or two -- I'd be more inclined to back the under than the over, but this game probably won't be very popular as a game stack overall anyway.

LA Rams Offense Notes
- Fresh off a bye, the Los Angeles Rams are road favorites against a pretty tough defense overall. While the Pittsburgh Steelers are just 22nd in adjusted pressure rate, Jared Goff ($8,100) is on the road, priced up, and without a key receiver, so he's not going to make my lineups outside of game stacks at this price.
- Brandin Cooks ($6,500) seems unlikely to play, which also downgrades the offense without his field-stretching ability.
- Cooper Kupp ($8,100) -- at the salary and in the overall matchup -- grades out more as a secondary play, though the Steelers are 22nd in slot yards per snap. Robert Woods ($6,900) has 7.8 targets per game but just a 7.9-yard average target depth and has only once gotten past 12.6 FanDuel points, and he has averaged 38.3 air yards over his past four.
- Josh Reynolds ($5,200) stands to benefit without Cooks. He had 138 air yards and 8 targets, 4 of which were deep, in Week 8.
- Gerald Everett ($5,700) saw his snap rate fall to 48.4% in a Week 8 blowout. The Steelers are ninth in Target Success Rate allowed to tight ends.
- The Steelers are 2nd in adjusted rush defense but a less intimidating 16th in Rushing Success Rate. Todd Gurley ($7,200) has played 60.5% and 51.6% of snaps the past two games. The ceiling has been capped and should be again.

Pittsburgh Offense Notes
- Mason Rudolph ($6,800) has ranked 23rd in Passing NEP per drop back and runs into a pass defense that has allowed a 41.1% Passing Success Rate since getting Jalen Ramsey two games ago.
- In two games with Rudolph back, JuJu Smith-Schuster ($6,800) leads with a 20.0% target share (7.0) per game, followed by Jaylen Samuels ($6,200) at 19.4% (all coming in Week 9), Vance McDonald ($5,600) at 15.7%, James Washington ($5,300) at 14.3%, and Diontae Johnson ($4,700) at 12.9%. Washington gets the deep work, but Johnson has the better snap rate.
- Samuels saw just 8 carries last week, while Trey Edmunds ($5,600) had 12, but Samuels caught all 13 targets for 73 yards. With James Conner ($7,100) out, Samuels is looking like the best option among backs below $6,900.

Core Plays: Jaylen Samuels
Secondary Plays: Cooper Kupp, Todd Gurley
Tournament Plays: JuJu Smith-Schuster

Carolina at Green Bay

Game Overview
- Each team is top-10 in pace, and while the over/under is middling, this game could turn into a shootout. The betting trends suggest that the over is very much in play.

Carolina Offense Notes
- Christian McCaffrey ($10,500) is priced way up, but the Green Bay Packers are 32nd in Rushing Success Rate allowed to backs (9th in Target Success Rate), and he's -- at worst -- at top-five per-dollar play at the position and is someone to prioritize in cash games.
- Kyle Allen ($7,000) will continue to start for the Carolina Panthers the rest of the season. He has divvied up his targets as follows: 23.0% for D.J. Moore ($5,800), 22.5% for Curtis Samuel ($6,100), 18.8% for Christian McCaffrey, and 14.1% for Greg Olsen ($5,100). Samuel has 15 of the deep targets, while Moore has 12 and Olsen has 6. The Packers are 9th in Target Success Rate allowed to receivers and 19th to tight ends.
- It's a pretty tight offense for daily fantasy purposes.

Green Bay Offense Notes
- Aaron Rodgers ($8,000) has commanded the NFL's seventh-ranked adjusted pass offense to help out with this matchup. He's a cash-game consideration as a home favorite.
- Davante Adams ($7,800) returned last week to see a 31.4% target share and 37.6% air yards share -- elite numbers. He'd get a big boost if James Bradberry were to miss.
- With Adams back last week, Jamaal Williams ($5,600) actually was second on the team with six targets, followed by Aaron Jones ($7,600), Jimmy Graham ($5,800), and Allen Lazard ($5,300) with four each. The receivers are fighting for scraps with heavy focus on Adams and the running backs.
- Jones has averaged a 57.1% snap rate in four games with Williams back (Williams is at 45.9% himself). Jones has averaged 16.8 opportunities in that span. Williams is at 11.3. Carolina is dead last in Adjusted Defensive Rushing NEP per play.

Core Plays: Christian McCaffrey, Greg Olsen, Aaron Rodgers
Secondary Plays: Aaron Jones, Davante Adams, D.J. Moore, Curtis Samuel
Tournament Plays: Jimmy Graham, Jamaal Williams