Daily Fantasy Football Quarterback Primer: Week 9
Welcome to another edition of my weekly NFL DFS quarterback primer article. Each week I will be looking to find an edge at the quarterback position for daily fantasy football contests.
In this weekly column, you will find the best value quarterbacks for tournaments and head-to-head cash games. Additionally, I will highlight one or two quarterbacks to avoid in the upcoming week.
Last week was one of the better weeks for this column. Our Play of the week, Deshaun Watson, scored the fourth-most points at the position while the two players we avoided, Jimmy Garoppolo and Kyle Allen, both finished outside the top-20 in Week 8. Jared Goff and Derek Carr did not hit their ceiling but still managed to finish inside the top-10 at the position last week. All-in-all, our process led to results in Week 8.
Let's get try and do it again for Week 9.
Best Overall Play of the Week
Aaron Rodgers ($8,100) -- Rodgers has had an up and down season through the first 8 weeks. He has scored 25+ points three times, but has also scored below 15 points four times this season. However, three of Rodgers' four worst performances this season came against top-10 passing defenses in the league according to our power rankings. Rodgers has only played a bottom-7 passing defense once this season, when he exploded for 429 passing yards and 5 touchdowns against the Oakland Raiders in Week 7.
This week, Rodgers has a great matchup against a Los Angeles Chargers team that has struggled to stop the pass. The Chargers rank as the 7th worst passing defense in the league according to our power rankings, despite playing a plethora of uninspiring quarterbacks over the last five weeks. From Week 4 to Week 8 the Chargers have faced Josh Rosen, Joe Flacco, Devlin Hodges, Ryan Tannehill, and Mitchell Trubisky. That is an uninspiring list of quarterbacks if I have ever seen one. None of these quarterbacks have had huge fantasy performances against the Chargers defense but none of them have had huge performances this entire season, either.
In a game with the third-highest over/under on the main slate, Rodgers has as good of a chance as anyone to finish as the top overall QB in Week 9. He is the fifth-best value play at the position according to our projections.
Sam Darnold ($7,300) -- .This is the first time this season Darnold is being recommended in this article. Darnold has only played in four games this season, and has failed to top 20 points in each of those games. However, Darnold gets the best matchup of his season in Week 9 against the Miami Dolphins secondary which has allowed the fourth-most points to quarterbacks so far this season. According to our power rankings, the Dolphins have the second-worst passing defense in the league, right behind the Atlanta Falcons.
Darnold has shown he is willing to through the ball downfield in his limited action this season. Only six quarterbacks have thrown 11+ deep ball attempts (passes with 16+ air yards) in multiple games this season. Those quarterbacks are Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahomes, Dak Prescott, Philip Rivers, Russell Wilson, and Sam Darnold. Every quarterback on that list except Sam Darnold has at least one game with 3+touchdowns and 300+ yards. Darnold should have his best chance of the season to hit those marks in Week 9. He is the 10th best value play at the position this week according to our projections.
Jameis Winston ($7,500) -- Winston has a great matchup with the Seattle Seahawks in Week 9. In a matchup with the highest over/under of the week against a bottom-10 passing defense is too hard to ignore in fantasy football. Of course, Winston comes with a lot of risk. He is tied for a league-high 12 interceptions this season and has scored less than 14 points three times this season. In tournaments, however, we care less about a player's floor and more about their ceiling. Winston has certainly proved he has a high ceiling through his first seven games. He has thrown over 300 yards four times this season and has at least two touchdown passes in over half of his games. Stacking Winston with Chris Godwin and/or Mike Evans this week could be the million dollar formula in DFS this week. Winston is the second-best value play at the position this week according to our models.
Josh Allen ($7,700) -- Josh Allen offers the low-price high-floor combination that we are looking for in this format. Allen gets a matchup with the Washington Redskins at home in Week 9. The Redskins have the 6th worst passing defense according to our power rankings. Allen has thrown two touchdowns in each of his last three games, but has not had a game this season with at least three passing touchdowns. We could see that change in Week 9, as the Redskins have allowed 3+ touchdowns in half of their games so far this season.
The main reason we should like Allen in cash this week is his rushing upside. Allen is projected for the most rushing attempts, rushing yards, and rushing touchdowns this week with Lamar Jackson not playing in the main slate. Allen's rushing upside is what gives him one of the safest floors at the position this week. Our projections have Allen tied as the fifth-best value play at the position in Week 9.
Quarterback to Avoid
Jacoby Brissett ($7,300) -- Brissett has been had a much better season than most expected, but we should be looking elsewhere in Week 9. The Indianapolis Colts quarterback is tied for the 4th most passing touchdowns (8) through the first half of the season. However, he has failed to top 250 passing yards in over half of his games. Our projections expect Brissett to miss that mark again in Week 9, projecting him for only 219 passing yards. Even more concerning for Brissett is that all of his best performances have come at home this season. This week, he has to travel to play the Pittsburgh Steelers who have a top-10 passing defense according to our projections. Brissett has averaged under 15 points in road games this season while averaging over 20 points in home games. Our models have him projected outside the top-12 quarterbacks in Week 9. We should be looking elsewhere this week.
Samuel Factor is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Samuel Factor also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username Samfact2. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his/her personal views, he/she may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his/her personal account. The views expressed in his/her articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.