Daily Fantasy Football Quarterback Primer: Week 8
Welcome to another edition of my weekly NFL DFS quarterback primer article. Each week I will be looking to find an edge at the quarterback position for daily fantasy football contests.
In this weekly column, you will find the best value quarterbacks for tournaments and head-to-head cash games. Additionally, I will highlight one or two quarterbacks to avoid in the upcoming week.
Last week was not the best week for this column. After perfectly predicting the top 4 plays in Week 7, we made some errors in Week 8. Our play of the week, Kyler Murray, struggled to keep his hot-streak going scoring less than 7 points against a below-average New York Giants secondary. Murray played fine, but the Arizona Cardinals were able to dominate on the ground, with three rushing touchdowns from Chase Edmonds. Jared Goff was our top tournament play in Week 7, and he managed to finish as the sixth-best at the postion. He did not kill you, but playing the 6th best quarterback is not going to get you a top finish in tournaments. We took a risk with below-average quarterbacks in above-average matchups with Josh Allen in cash and Daniel Jones in tournaments. Neither finished inside the top-10.
Let's get back on track for Week 6.
Best Overall Play of the Week
Deshaun Watson ($8,400) -- The MVP candidate is up against an Oakland Raiders defense that has been the third worst against the pass so far this season according to our power rankings. Aaron Rodgers just threw five touchdowns against this weak secondary in Week 7. We have also seen Patrick Mahomes and Jacoby Brissett throw for 3+ touchdowns against this defense. The two times Watson has played a bottom-10 passing defense this season was against the Los Angeles Chargers in Week 3 and the Atlanta Falcons in Week 5.
Watson had 3 and 5 touchdowns in those games, respectively. Watson has a great opportunity for at least another three touchdowns this week in a game with the second-highest over/under on the slate. Our models have Watson projected for the most passing yards (282.54), second-most passing touchdowns (2.32), and the third most rushing attempts (5.48) in Week 8. He is the top value play of the week across all positions according to our projections.
Russell Wilson ($8,600) -- Wilson has scored at least 14 points in every game so far this season, and should easily keep that streak going against the Falcons who continue to against the pass. The Falcons have allowed the most points per game to opposing quarterbacks this season and rank as the worst passing defense according to our power rankings. We will continue to target their opponents until that changes. The chart below tells you all you need to know about how the Falcons defense has done against quarterbacks over the past 5 weeks.
|Passing Yards||Passing Touchdowns||Fantasy Points|
|Average (week 3-7)||314.2||3||27.9|
Playing in a game with the highest over/under of the week, Wilson has a good chance to finish at the top overall QB in Week 8. Our projections have Wilson as the second-best value play of the week across all positions.
Jared Goff ($8,000) -- Goff is coming off of his first top-12 week of the season. Some of that had to do with a great matchup against the Atlanta Falcons, but the matchup will not be much tougher in Week 8 against the Cincinnati Bengals who rank sixth-worst in the league against the pass according to our power rankings. The third-year quarterback has the third most dropbacks in the league and is due for some positive regression with an easier upcoming schedule.
Stacking Goff with the right Los Angeles Rams receiver could be the formula for success in tournaments this week. Goff is the 8th best value play at the position this week according to our projections.
Derek Carr ($6,900) -- Paying down at Quarterback can free up space to pay up for the elite running backs we want in cash. Carr has a slightly lower floor than we want in cash but his upside at this price could really pay off in Week 8. The Houston Texans have allowed 3+ passing touchdowns in each of the last three games.
Carr has yet to throw for more than two touchdowns in a game but has a great chance to end that streak in a game with second-highest over/under of the week. He is also likely to have his top receiver, Tyrell Williams, back for the first time since Week 4. Carr is a top-12 value play at the position this week according to our projections.
Quarterback to Avoid
Jimmy Garoppolo ($7,400) and Kyle Allen ($7,000) -- This game is one to avoid this week when it comes to the passing game. According to our power rankings, which adjust for strength of opponent, the San Francisco 49ers and the Carolina Panthers rank 2nd and 3rd in passing defense respectively. It comes as no surprise that this game has the third-lowest over/under on the main slate.
The 49ers are calling running plays on 57% of their plays, the highest rate in the league. This makes it hard to trust any part of the passing attack in this contest. Our models have both Quarterbacks outside the top-12 in passing attempts in Week 8.
Samuel Factor is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Samuel Factor also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username Samfact2. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his/her personal views, he/she may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his/her personal account. The views expressed in his/her articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.