3 NFL Prop Bets to Target for the Conference Championships
With season-long leagues in the books, fantasy enthusiasts can stay involved in the NFL action through the FanDuel SportsBook. FanDuel provides a variety of lines, player props, and parlays, allowing people to showcase their knowledge.
Player props closely mirror the game of fantasy football, allowing people to stay involved in a familiar way. With Conference Championships upon us, here are a few standout player props for Sunday.
Damien Williams Over 63.5 Rushing Yards -108
With the FanDuel Sportsbook still adjusting to Damien Williams' new role as Kansas City's lead back, his rushing prop remains depressed at 63.5 rushing yards. A $100 bet on Williams in this spot returns $92.59.
With Spencer Ware going down with an injury late in the season, Williams' role has slowly increased in Kansas City. Last week, Damien out-snapped Darrel Williams, 74.71% to 11.49%. Williams has also seen a massive share of the Chiefs' running back carries, averaging 14.75 carries per game in his last four contests. Last week, Williams exploded for a massive 25 carries as the Chiefs played from ahead, and even though Spencer Ware is expected back this week, it's hard to see KC scaling back Williams' workload.
Checking out this weekend's matchup, the New England Patriots rank a solid 13th in rushing defense, according to our schedule-adjusted metrics. They showed additional cracks towards the end of the year, however, allowing the ninth-most rushing yards to opposing backs (452) in the last four games of the regular season despite facing the weak rushing attacks of the New York Jets, Buffalo Bills, and Miami Dolphins.
Ultimately, Williams looks like a strong target due to projected game script. Bookmakers currently peg the Chiefs as 3.0-point home favorites over the Pats, which should provide Williams with more rush attempts if the game plays out in that manor. Our projections have Williams slated for 14.16 carries and 70.81 rushing yards, giving him a full 7 yards of value above his prop. Until the sportsbooks adjust for his new role, Williams should remain a weekly target for player prop bets.
Alvin Kamara Over 102.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards -108
Generously, Alvin Kamara's total yardage prop has been set at a lowly 102.5 yards. A $100 bet on him beating that mark nets $92.59.
Truly game-script independent, Kamara has averaged 17.5 touches per game in his last four contests. Last week, the New Orleans Saints showed a lean toward Kamara as he bested Mark Ingram in snap rate (68.83% to 40.26%) and touches (20 to 11).
Kamara also looks like a solid bet from a matchup standpoint, with the Los Angeles Rams ranking 24th in run defense, per our metrics. Their defense also allowed the sixth-most rushing yards to opposing backs (416) in the last four games of the regular season.
Game script, too, should work in Kamara's favor, with the Saints pegged as 3.5-home favorites. Our projections have Kamara slated for 19.54 touches and 112.08 total yards, giving him almost 10 yards of value on his player prop. With game script, matchup, and usage working in his favor, Kamara's total yardage prop looks like a solid target this weekend.
Chris Hogan Over 29.5 Receiving Yards -108
This may seem like the ultimate stretch after Chris Hogan finished as one of 2018's biggest fantasy disappointments. However, any full-time receiver in a Tom Brady-led offense warrants consideration with a receiving yard prop of just 29.5 yards. A $100 bet on Hogan in this spot nets $92.59.
To begin the playoffs, Hogan's usage remained strong in the Divisional Round. He played on 91.57% of the Patriots' snaps and tied Julian Edelman for most routes run on the team (46). While this led to only five targets, Hogan's volume remained strong enough to look at again this week. Throughout 2018, Hogan averaged 14.34 yards per catch and bested this 29.5-yard mark on nine occasions.
From a matchup standpoint, the Chiefs' pass D has been good at home, but they still allowed the fourth-most receiving yards to wideouts throughout 2018 (2,782). Hogan himself racked up 78 receiving yards when these two teams met earlier this season.
From a game-script perspective, the Pats should throw more than last week as 3.0-point underdogs. Our models currently project Hogan for 2.36 catches and 33.43 receiving yards, almost 4 yards above his receiving prop.
Despite his underwhelming performances for the majority of the season, Hogan likely needs only two or three catches to eclipse his receiving yardage prop. While this prop isn't for the faint of heart, it remains a nice target.