DRAFT Daily Fantasy Football Helper: Week 16
With the fantasy playoffs moving into their final week, many have already been eliminated from contention. However, with the NFL season heating up, DRAFT provides weekly snake and auction leagues, allowing people to stay involved in the action. In these leagues people, pick their preferred individual players on a week-to-week basis. Here are a few of this week's notable plays.
Drew Brees - Notorious for his home-road splits, Drew Brees has fallen below 16 fantasy points in each of his last two road games while eclipsing 21 in his last two at home. Returning home against a Pittsburgh Steelers team that averages the fifth-most points per game (27.4), this game sets up as a potential shootout for Brees. With recency bias pushing his stock to the mid-rounds of snake drafts, Brees looks like a value this week.
According to our schedule-adjusted metrics, Pittsburgh ranks 13th against the run and 14th against the pass on the defensive side of the ball. The Steelers have recently opened up to opposing aerial attacks, allowing the sixth-most passing yards over the last four weeks.
Also working in his favor, this game currently has the highest over/under on the entire slate at 53.5 points. Pittsburgh has passed at the highest rate in football this season and should put up some points. For those taking an early-quarterback approach, Brees at home brings one of the highest ceilings on the slate.
Baker Mayfield - Another week flying under the radar, Baker Mayfield enters a blow-up spot against a weak Cincinnati Bengals' defense. Often going undrafted, Mayfield provides week-winning upside at a reduced cost.
Coming off a down game against the Denver Broncos, Mayfield recorded slightly more than 13 fantasy points for the second-consecutive week. However, Mayfield's pass attempts climbed back up to 31 in Week 15, giving him enough volume to remain in consideration for Week 16.
Mayfield is up against a highly-exploitable Bengals' secondary. Cincy ranks in the bottom 10 against the pass, per our metrics, and has allowed the fourth-most passing yards this season (3,953). Just four weeks ago, Baker racked up 258 passing yards and 4 scores on this very defense.
Favored by 8.5 points, the Cleveland Browns enter this contest with a 26.75-point implied total, seventh-highest on the slate. With Cincinnati's struggles on defense, Mayfield offers the requisite upside to take down weekly snake drafts.
Dalvin Cook - While Christian McCaffrey, Saquon Barkley, and Ezekiel Elliott deserve to be selected in the top five of snake drafts, Dalvin Cook has quietly made his case to be drafted among them. However, often falling to the early second round, Cook comes at a discount in weekly snake drafts.
Over the last two weeks, Cook has touch counts of 18 and 20, including 9 targets in that span. He takes this volume to Detroit, where he will face a Lions' defense that has allowed the seventh-most rushing yards to backs this season (1,489).
Also important, the Minnesota Vikings enter this contest as 5.5 point favorites, putting game script in Cook's favor. Coming into the Week 15, the Vikings passed at the second-highest rate in football. However, in Week 15, they took a run-heavy approach, pounding the rock at the third-highest rate for the week (63%). While blowing out the Miami Dolphins definitely played a role, coach Mike Zimmer made it clear that he wanted a run-first approach.
Taking on an increased role, Cook looks like a supreme value in the early second round.
Phillip Lindsay - Coming off a down week against the Browns, Phillip Lindsay looks like a value heading into Week 16, with recency bias pushing his draft cost into the mid-rounds.
While Lindsay recorded only 44 yards on 18 touches, his usage remained positive. The rookie played on 53% of Denver's snaps and saw 72% of the running-back touches.
The Broncos draw a cupcake matchup this week against the Oakland Raiders. Oakland ranks dead last in run defense, according to our metrics, and has allowed the second-most rushing yards to backs this season (1,734).
Bookmakers also seem to like Denver, pegging the Broncos as 2.5-point favorites on the road. Lindsay has actually seen target counts of seven and six in his last two games, rendering him game-script independent.
Coming off a down week, the public simply has not adjusted to Lindsay's current Week 16 environment, making him a steal in the middle rounds of weekly snake drafts.
Jamaal Williams - Surely to jump higher later in the week, Jamaal Williams can often be obtained in the very last round on DRAFT. With Aaron Jones landing on injured reserve this week, Williams should handle three-down duty for the Green Bay Packers.
The second-year pro draws a matchup against a New York Jets' defense that ranks 12th versus the run by our metrics. Even though the matchup leaves a little to be desired, projected volume makes Williams a smash play. In two games without Jones earlier this season, Williams handled 15 and 19 touches, including 6 targets. With the now-jettisoned Ty Montgomery still siphoning playing time and touches at that point, Williams now looks like the unquestioned lead dog in Green Bay.
From a gambling trends perspective, this game currently has the Packers favored by 3 points with a 43.5-point over/under. While the total also leaves a little bit to be desired, the close spread indicates that Williams should be involved throughout this contest.
Coming off the board as a late round dart-throw, Williams simply remains too cheap at this point in time.
Davante Adams - With many of the league's top receivers in plus matchups, none stand out more than Davante Adams. Often a late-first or early-second round pick, Adams has been a true difference maker at the receiver position each week.
Over the last three weeks Adams leads the NFL in targets (37) and ranks second in air yards (439). Arguably the league's most consistent wide out, Adams has 100 yards or a touchdown in all but one game this season.
He takes this absurd production to New York, where he will face a Jets' team that has been rocked by opposing receivers lately. This secondary has allowed the most yards to receivers over the last four weeks (885), including 100-yard games to DeAndre Hopkins, Robert Foster, and Taywan Taylor.
Alshon Jeffery - Breaking a multi-week slump, Alshon Jeffery recorded 8 catches for 160 yards in Week 15 with Nick Foles at quarterback. Falling to the fourth or fifth round on DRAFT, Jeffery could present value again this week.
Jeffery has led the Philadelphia Eagles in targets each of the past two weeks, with 17 total in that span. This remains notable with Foles favoring and showing distinct chemistry with Jeffery in the past two seasons. The Eagles also draw a favorable matchup against the Houston Texans, who have allowed the second-most yards to receivers over the past two weeks (832).
Often lasting till the final rounds of drafts, Jeffery should remain a target until the public adjusts for his increasing role on the Philadelphia offense.
Robby Anderson - Seemingly a mere late-round dart throw, Robby Anderson has actually carved out a meaningful role for himself within the Jets' offense. Often going undrafted Anderson remains the ultimate sleeper in Week 16 on DRAFT.
Since returning from a multi-week ankle injury, Anderson has asserted himself as the clear top dog in New York. Anderson not only leads the Jets in targets in their last two games, he ranks 12th in the entire NFL in targets (18) and 4th in air yards (275).
The Jets will face the Packers this week as 3.0-point home underdogs. The Packers have played up and down against receivers this season, allowing the fifth-most touchdowns (19) but just the 17th-most yards to the position (2,922).
Either way, the Packers do not present a matchup to fear, and Anderson's volume remains the most important variable in the equation. Selecting Anderson in the final round of larger snake drafts can round out a balanced team.
Matthew Gajewski is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Matthew Gajewski also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username mgajewski. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his/her personal views, he/she may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his/her personal account. The views expressed in his/her articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.