Fantasy Football: The Report, Week 12

What is The Report? It's a comprehensive, statistical look at how teams and players are functioning offensively, with notes as to what it all means for the fantasy football future. Each week, The Report will feature charts on team play-calling tendencies, player usage close to the end zone, deep ball rates, and so much more. With added commentary, the purpose is to not only hand you information, but provide actionable information to crush both season-long and daily fantasy football.

Let's dig into Week 12's report.

Team Play-Calling

Team Pass Att Rush Att Ratio +/- 6 Ratio RZ Plays RZ Ratio GL Plays GL Ratio
ARI 308 217 1.42 1.19 58 1.42 13 0.86
ATL 394 218 1.81 2.07 85 1.43 24 1.00
BAL 410 285 1.44 1.33 103 0.98 25 0.56
BUF 317 283 1.12 0.90 69 0.77 17 0.89
CAR 331 260 1.27 1.40 80 0.86 25 0.79
CHI 321 292 1.10 1.05 88 1.20 23 1.09
CIN 356 201 1.77 1.74 74 1.64 21 1.33
CLE 371 276 1.34 1.37 74 1.06 26 0.63
DAL 306 270 1.13 1.16 86 1.32 21 0.75
DEN 364 240 1.52 1.53 84 1.21 20 0.82
DET 374 236 1.58 1.59 89 1.54 15 0.88
GB 393 214 1.84 1.76 80 1.86 18 2.00
HOU 310 305 1.02 1.13 110 1.44 36 1.77
IND 404 252 1.60 1.72 117 1.60 32 1.46
JAX 377 256 1.47 1.24 68 1.72 15 1.14
KC 391 267 1.46 1.72 120 1.45 32 0.68
LAC 316 252 1.25 1.49 86 1.21 18 1.00
LAR 383 316 1.21 1.39 155 1.01 32 0.60
MIA 309 239 1.29 1.30 50 0.92 7 2.50
MIN 409 211 1.94 1.64 82 2.15 19 1.71
NE 374 277 1.35 1.50 110 1.00 33 0.57
NO 341 313 1.09 1.35 150 1.00 50 0.61
NYG 365 203 1.80 1.50 105 1.63 26 1.00
NYJ 323 259 1.25 1.16 61 0.85 8 0.60
OAK 354 240 1.48 1.28 90 1.31 21 0.91
PHI 385 236 1.63 1.60 107 1.18 17 0.89
PIT 419 230 1.82 1.78 92 1.56 24 0.50
SEA 278 323 0.86 0.87 77 1.26 15 0.88
SF 319 283 1.13 1.20 105 0.94 28 0.75
TB 411 245 1.68 1.43 110 1.44 25 1.27
TEN 280 289 0.97 1.12 86 0.91 21 0.75
WAS 340 279 1.22 1.40 82 0.82 19 0.36

Atlanta has been by far the most pass-heavy team in neutral game scripts this season. When games have been within six points, the Falcons are throwing more than two passes for every run -- their 2.07 pass-to-rush attempt ratio is significantly higher than second-place Pittsburgh's 1.78 rate. This is a big reason Julio Jones is second in the league in targets, and why we could see a whole lot of passing from the Falcons in Week 12. Not only do they throw a lot when the game is close, but against New Orleans, they're likely to be playing from behind.

No team has run more plays while trailing this season than the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. They've been fairly balanced when games have been close, but their overall pass-to-rush ratio ranks seventh-highest in the league. What's interesting for this week, though, is that they're 3.5-point favorites against San Francisco. We'll probably see a more balanced approach than we're used to seeing from this Bucs' offense as a result.

With Byron Leftwich as offensive coordinator, the Cardinals are running roughly nine more rushing and passing attempts combined per game. They've also seen their yards per drive increase by about four yards. The problem is that, over the last four weeks, that yards per drive rate is still second-lowest in football. Leftwich has been an improvement, but the Cardinals' O still has a long way to go.

The Saints have run 50 goal-line plays this year, which is 14 more than any other team in the league. And it's 43 (!!!) more than 32nd-ranked Miami Dolphins. They've been fairly run-heavy close to their opponent's end zone -- they're the seventh-most run-friendly in the NFL in that area of the field -- but thanks to sheer volume, Drew Brees is tied for the league lead in goal-line touchdowns.

Schedule-Adjusted Net Expected Points

To learn more about numberFire's Net Expected Points (NEP) metric, check out the glossary. (Note: Negative figures for defense are good.)

Team Adj NEP Adj Pass NEP Adj Rush NEP Adj D NEP Adj D Pass NEP Adj D Rush NEP
ARI -78.47 -50.34 -20.28 24.48 26.63 8.42
ATL 115.11 113.56 -7.25 136.86 104.02 32.40
BAL 70.54 47.41 9.89 -3.82 13.71 -12.32
BUF -72.90 -77.25 7.84 -3.02 6.39 -6.50
CAR 87.42 55.36 31.97 83.04 66.78 20.32
CHI 99.60 59.77 23.15 12.91 33.14 -26.11
CIN 54.54 47.27 0.30 68.43 37.09 44.97
CLE -14.15 -24.17 7.42 -9.42 -17.65 11.83
DAL 20.25 -0.23 32.22 36.09 48.75 -13.58
DEN 67.04 46.18 26.61 29.41 25.51 13.94
DET 62.98 55.33 7.38 129.61 100.65 23.04
GB 94.40 63.25 39.78 72.08 43.59 25.02
HOU 52.71 51.29 -3.90 34.40 42.04 -18.20
IND 112.90 87.38 21.54 89.08 76.36 6.29
JAX -8.55 11.82 0.08 28.54 19.55 5.15
KC 200.23 179.16 22.88 102.35 37.99 47.09
LAC 198.03 149.35 46.69 58.71 32.02 29.19
LAR 116.75 112.93 15.12 49.71 35.29 17.88
MIA 3.54 6.67 1.52 104.13 66.10 25.59
MIN 33.72 58.84 -22.68 -0.98 15.96 -18.92
NE 117.04 89.73 19.56 49.51 47.48 6.23
NO 195.07 156.01 25.79 61.39 52.29 1.24
NYG 32.40 32.65 4.63 78.55 63.34 15.06
NYJ -46.96 -36.58 1.03 50.01 46.73 9.72
OAK 13.29 26.29 -4.47 121.57 100.52 30.48
PHI 38.51 13.74 13.34 60.95 42.59 17.59
PIT 108.84 105.27 9.31 26.69 17.00 5.87
SEA 77.24 55.20 26.11 40.59 28.89 0.46
SF 13.09 11.89 -5.99 76.81 59.34 7.12
TB 80.40 82.83 2.69 114.48 107.19 12.91
TEN 29.74 31.24 1.72 68.51 69.17 11.11
WAS 13.59 -8.07 22.13 26.10 11.74 13.49

Tampa Bay is back to the bottom in numberFire's schedule-adjusted pass rankings, but there are still four pass defenses that the algorithm really doesn't like: Tampa Bay, Atlanta, Detroit, Oakland. Of those defenses, the Bucs and Raiders are facing stream-worthy quarterbacks in Nick Mullens and Lamar Jackson this week. If you need a quarterback, you could do worse than those two this week, especially Jackson.

Similar to the secondary rankings, there are three offenses that have separated themselves from the rest of the pack, but in a good way. Kansas City has gotten a lot of praise -- and rightfully so -- for their offensive play this year, but numberFire's expected points model sees the Chargers and Saints as comparable units. There's not necessarily a fantasy football takeaway there, just something interesting from the model.

Cincinnati continues to struggle defensively, and that's especially true against the run. We saw Gus Edwards and Lamar Jackson run all over them last week, and on the season, only the Chiefs have a worse run-stuffing unit. Nick Chubb should be in your lineup this week.

Team Pass Defense Splits

The chart below displays the raw number of yards and the percentage of yards allowed by pass defense to wide receivers, tight ends, and running backs.

Tennessee has really struggled against wide receivers this year. They rank sixth-worst in fantasy points allowed to the position, and they've given up the largest percentage of receiving yards allowed to wide receivers. The thing is, according to Pro Football Focus, they've surrendered the sixth-fewest receiving yards to the slot in the league. That means DeAndre Hopkins could go off this week, while Keke Coutee may be a little less reliable.

The team allowing the most slot yards is Tampa Bay, but they're really just giving up a lot of yards to the middle of the field. Only Baltimore and Indianapolis have allowed a higher percentage of receiving yards to tight ends this year than Tampa Bay has. You know what that means: it's another George Kittle week.

The Falcons are known for giving up receiving yards to opposing backs, but the Chargers have surrendered nearly as many receiving yards to the position this year, and a larger portion of their total receiving yards allowed are going to backs. They'll get David Johnson this week, so hopefully that means the Cardinals will utilize Johnson in the passing game a bit more. In Week 11, he saw just three targets. The matchup is definitely there for Johnson to do work in PPR formats.

Indianapolis has been good against opposing wide receivers this season. They're third-best in yards allowed to the position, and they've seen the lowest percentage of yards go to wideouts, as well. That doesn't bode well for those of you throwing darts at Miami wideouts this weekend.

We may see a situation where Jared Cook is funneled a lot of targets this week, too. Baltimore's been great against wideouts, but they've been not-so-great against tight ends. Considering Oakland is hurting at the wide receiver position -- and by hurting, I mean they're deathly ill -- Cook should see a lot of volume in Week 12.

Philadelphia's secondary is hurting, and over the team's last four games, they've allowed two top-five performances and four top-12 ones. And it's not like they've faced spectacular quarterbacks -- Drew Brees and Cam Newton are obviously good, but Dak Prescott and Blake Bortles posted 21.7 and 19.7 points, respectively, on the Eagles over this time. It's a rough in-division road matchup for Eli Manning, but he should be considered as a streamer.

Team Directional Rushing

All numbers below reflect yards per play.

Marlon Mack has 12-plus carries in all fives games since his return from injury, and he gets a matchup this week against a Miami rush defense that ranks sixth-worst, according to numberFire's expected points model, and one that has allowed the fifth-most points per game to the running back position. The Miami D has also seen a running back finish as a top-15 one in PPR formats in all but one game this year, with that contest coming against the Jets. Indianapolis is a 9.5-point home favorite, making Mack a very strong play in Week 12.

On paper, the matchup for Adrian Peterson this week is pretty tough. He'll be on the road, and he'll be up against Dallas, owners of the fourth-best rush defense according to numberFire on a per-rush basis. Not only that, but Washington's a pretty big 7.5-point underdog. And in losses this year, AP has averaged just 23.5 rushing yards versus the 104.8 he's had in wins. He's tough to trust with Colt McCoy under center.

Josh Adams is getting more run with the Eagles. In his two games prior to Sunday, he was handling about 46% of Philly's running back carries while playing roughly 30% of the team's offensive snaps. This past Sunday, those numbers jumped to 70% and 55%, respectively. This week, they could find themselves in a positive game script, and they'll be facing the Giants, a defense that's posted below-average marks against the run. Adams is a nice low-key start this week.

Tampa Bay isn't as bad against the run as they are the pass, but that doesn't mean you should keep Matt Breida benched this week. The Bucs have actually given up the fourth-highest Success Rate -- or the percentage of positive expected point runs, per NEP -- to running backs this season. Breida's coming off a bye, but the last time we saw him, he toted the rock 17 times. He's got a high floor in what could end up being a higher-scoring contest this weekend.

Running Back Usage

PlayerAttRush %TargetsTarget %Snap %Last Wk RateRZ AttRZ TargetsGL Att
Todd Gurley21066.46%5614.62%84.6%85%551518
Alvin Kamara13643.45%7221.11%66.6%62.9%372112
Saquon Barkley15877.83%7921.64%85.2%88.7%301111
James Conner17375.22%6014.32%81.4%89.2%30713
Melvin Gordon14356.75%5818.35%74.8%83.1%18122
Kareem Hunt18167.79%358.95%70.6%86.1%27911
Christian McCaffrey13652.31%7121.45%96.7%100%2277
Ezekiel Elliott19170.74%5618.30%88.9%87.5%25118
James White6122.02%8923.80%60.4%N/A15156
David Johnson16877.42%4614.94%81.9%79.6%2077
T.J. Yeldon8934.77%6216.45%61.9%33.8%1152
Phillip Lindsay12150.42%318.52%42.7%57.1%1755
Adrian Peterson17161.29%185.29%49.2%56%2628
Kerryon Johnson11850.00%3910.43%51.6%50.8%1762
Tarik Cohen6321.58%5416.82%46.3%40.5%981
Tevin Coleman11452.29%338.38%58.5%60.7%1386
Joe Mixon12863.68%339.27%61.8%61.8%1947
Kenyan Drake8133.89%4915.86%59.3%N/A951
Matt Breida11339.93%185.64%40.6%N/A1945
Aaron Jones8439.25%235.85%46.9%89.8%1424
Dion Lewis12242.21%4114.64%67.4%69.8%1933
Isaiah Crowell11444.02%185.57%41.4%N/A1603
Alex Collins11440.00%215.12%41.4%21.5%2156
Jalen Richard2912.08%5916.67%38.4%47.1%241
Lamar Miller14547.54%258.06%60.1%73%2326
Latavius Murray9645.50%225.38%54.4%9%1323
Nick Chubb9434.06%102.70%26%N/A1225
Nyheim Hines6023.81%4912.13%47.2%25.8%1552
Austin Ekeler6525.79%288.86%36%23.4%1042
Jordan Howard15553.08%175.30%59.8%64.9%2138
Duke Johnson269.42%4211.32%42.5%N/A350
Mike Davis8225.39%2810.07%41.5%31.4%1112
Marlon Mack9437.30%153.71%50.9%61.3%1927
Javorius Allen4014.04%4310.49%40.8%6.3%1166
LeSean McCoy11139.22%3410.73%55%N/A1303
Mark Ingram7925.24%133.81%46.6%42.9%14011
Peyton Barber13555.10%184.38%55%67.6%1836
Chris Carson12839.63%113.96%39.6%41.4%1525
Carlos Hyde131N/A12N/A42.6%16.2%17210
Marshawn Lynch9037.50%205.65%50.4%N/A1653
Wendell Smallwood6326.69%256.49%37.2%7.8%1051
Derrick Henry11038.06%103.57%34.1%33.3%1916
Frank Gore11748.95%123.88%41.6%N/A1121
Ito Smith5927.06%225.58%29.5%35.7%1723
Sony Michel10638.27%82.14%25.6%N/A2308
Royce Freeman7832.50%71.92%26.5%23.2%1403
Theo Riddick93.81%5213.90%40.2%41.5%370
Giovani Bernard3818.91%287.87%44.4%47.3%612
Chris Thompson269.32%3410.00%28.8%N/A342
Leonard Fournette7228.13%112.92%34%50%1025
Chris Ivory8028.27%195.99%31.9%N/A702
Alfred Blue10233.44%154.84%41.3%28.6%1023
Bilal Powell8030.89%185.57%41.3%N/A1011
Corey Clement5724.15%205.19%30.9%27.5%1411
Devontae Booker2510.42%308.24%31%19.6%220
Kyle Juszczyk62.12%319.72%63.8%N/A351
Jamaal Williams7434.58%194.83%39.6%8.2%621
Rashaad Penny6219.20%124.32%21.1%24.3%611
Doug Martin7631.67%133.67%23.9%20.6%1013
Jordan Wilkins5722.62%112.72%24.1%17.7%441

Week 11 was a great one for Phillip Lindsay. Not only did he finish as a top-10 running back for the first time this season, but he played 57.1% of Denver's snaps, and that was with Royce Freeman back in the lineup. That was the third-highest single-game rate of Lindsay's season. Lindsay's been their best running back this year, and if that usage continues, he'll keep being an easy plug-and-play option.

If you weren't a believer before, now you have to be: Aaron Jones has been freed. He played 90% of Green Bay's snaps in Week 11, and while he didn't see a ton of volume, he still managed about 94% of the backfield's touches. He's a strong starter from here on out.

Tevin Coleman has hit a 60% snap share in each of his last two games, marking the two highest rates of his season since Devonta Freeman's been sidelined. What's been huge for Coleman since the Falcons' bye -- so the last three weeks -- has been his receiving usage. He has 15 targets over the last three games, when he totaled 18 targets across the first seven games of the season. That's giving him a much better floor in all formats.

No player has more goal-line carries over his last three games than Mark Ingram. With seven, Ingram's out-pacing teammate Alvin Kamara within the statistic. Here's the thing, though: Ingram has just one touchdown on those attempts, while Kamara has three.

Over the last two weeks, Leonard Fournette leads all running backs in attempts with 52. But he also averaged fewer than three yards per carry on those attempts -- despite the volume, 10 running backs have more rushing yards over their last two games played. Fournette is certainly viable in fantasy due to his workload, but it hasn't been pretty.

Wide Receiver Usage

PlayerTargetsTarget %Snap %Last Wk RateRZ Targets< 10 TargetsGL Targets
Tyreek Hill9424.04%88.4%95.8%1153
Adam Thielen11728.61%96.7%100%1554
Michael Thomas9126.69%87%81.4%20116
Davante Adams10626.97%93.4%93.9%2062
Antonio Brown10926.01%94.9%98.5%1451
DeAndre Hopkins9630.97%99.4%100%17138
Julio Jones11128.17%80.9%91.1%653
Odell Beckham10629.04%94.8%86.8%1874
Mike Evans9122.14%84%91.5%1042
Robert Woods9023.50%96.5%98.8%973
Brandin Cooks8421.93%89.5%87.5%1362
Stefon Diggs10425.43%81%92.5%1054
JuJu Smith-Schuster9322.20%83.8%93.8%2164
Emmanuel Sanders8021.98%86.3%89.3%742
Keenan Allen8727.53%83.5%89.6%942
Tyler Boyd8122.75%86.9%94.5%821
Kenny Golladay7520.05%90.5%93.8%963
A.J. Green7621.35%72.2%N/A1465
DeSean Jackson6215.09%54.1%74.6%510
Tyler Lockett4917.63%85.1%75.7%530
Calvin Ridley5313.45%58.8%71.4%510
Cooper Kupp5614.62%72%N/A1270
T.Y. Hilton6315.59%75.9%67.7%1397
Jarvis Landry10628.57%91.2%N/A1653
Golden Tate8121.04%73.5%70.6%852
Sterling Shepard6417.53%93.8%86.8%1454
John Brown6816.59%66.6%64.6%942
Corey Davis8028.57%88.1%92.1%1384
Chris Godwin5713.87%56.2%32.4%1093
Marvin Jones6216.58%79.9%N/A1161
Sammy Watkins5514.07%64.6%6.9%1040
Tyrell Williams4213.29%80.4%87%311
Larry Fitzgerald6922.40%90.1%92.6%1154
Devin Funchess6820.54%83.4%82.8%1064
Taylor Gabriel6119.00%78.2%74.3%543
Adam Humphries5814.11%70.2%69%732
Willie Snead7718.78%65.3%67.1%500
Dede Westbrook6216.45%74%70.6%830
Will Fuller4514.52%77%N/A532
Christian Kirk5417.53%77.4%88.9%410
Danny Amendola6119.74%86.6%N/A110
Allen Robinson5818.07%73.3%90.5%832
Demaryius Thomas6019.35%74.9%73%944
Alshon Jeffery5714.81%76.9%100%1031
Mohamed Sanu5413.71%76.9%91.1%422
Cole Beasley5919.28%65.6%65.6%831
Michael Crabtree7919.27%70.2%67.1%731
Nelson Agholor7018.18%91.2%86.3%832
Julian Edelman5614.97%88%N/A1162
Donte Moncrief6216.45%78.6%73.5%643
D.J. Moore3911.78%54.2%77.6%110
Albert Wilson3511.33%48.2%N/A100
Josh Gordon5213.90%68.2%N/A642
Amari Cooper5417.65%78.7%79.7%1172
Anthony Miller4413.71%64.1%81.1%831
Mike Williams3511.08%59.4%58.4%630
Zay Jones5918.61%85.5%N/A1042
Tre'Quan Smith339.68%54.3%71.4%632
Courtland Sutton4813.19%72.5%89.3%421
Jordy Nelson3911.02%75.5%N/A531

Julian Edelman has been silently useful in fantasy football. He's finished as WR12, WR12, and WR13 over his last three games in PPR formats, and that's without a touchdown. Those really should be coming, because during this time, Edelman's ranked close to the top-10 in the league in red-zone targets. Perhaps Rob Gronkowski's return pushes targets away from Edelman, but he's been a lot better than most are giving him credit for.

If there's one piece of downside with D.J. Moore and his 5.2 targets per game over his last six contests, it's that he's not seeing a lot of work in the red zone. He only has one red-zone target this season, tied for the lowest among top-60 wide receivers. He's still someone you want rostered, especially with Carolina's favorable schedule down the stretch, but for him to consistently do what he did in Week 11, he'll need more looks closer to the end zone.

Golden Tate saw his snap share rise from about 30% in Week 10 to 70% in Week 11. As a result, he finished with eight targets against the Saints, which was a team high. Meanwhile, the arrow seems to be pointing down for Alshon Jeffery, but it's not time to panic. He's ranked outside the top-40 in PPR formats in each of Philly's last three games, and he's failed to hit 50 yards in those contests. With that being said, he's still got a 23.1% target share during this time -- better days should come.

There are 41 wide receivers with more red-zone targets than Julio Jones. One of those players is Dede Westbrook, who went a solid seven weeks with just one red-zone look. But over his last four, Dede has seen eight, which marks the second-most at the position behind only Odell Beckham. He's too tough to trust in the Jacksonville offense, but it's a trend to watch.

Tight End Usage

PlayerTargetsTarget %Snap %Last Wk RateRZ Targets< 10 TargetsGL Targets
Travis Kelce10125.83%95.1%100%1773
Zach Ertz10326.75%96.6%92.2%1773
George Kittle7122.26%84.4%N/A1164
Eric Ebron6516.09%54.6%40.3%1642
Jared Cook6518.36%75.3%57.4%1193
O.J. Howard4811.68%60.8%71.8%742
Austin Hooper6315.99%82.2%83.9%1183
Trey Burton4614.33%80%79.7%973
Jordan Reed7020.59%63.1%66.7%541
Jimmy Graham5714.50%78.4%42.9%844
Vance McDonald4410.50%56.6%80%410
David Njoku5815.63%81.2%N/A321
Kyle Rudolph4911.98%86.8%91%1163
Rob Gronkowski4311.50%70.9%N/A210
Greg Olsen339.97%72.3%96.6%422
Jesse James286.68%55%24.6%521
Benjamin Watson349.97%51.7%30%000
Jeff Heuerman4512.36%77%85.7%1272
Christopher Herndon268.05%43.5%N/A400
Evan Engram339.04%68%32.1%511
Mark Andrews338.05%35%31.6%631
C.J. Uzomah328.99%79.6%100%432
Gerald Everett277.05%25.3%28.8%851
Ricky Seals-Jones5116.56%67.9%38.9%221
Geoff Swaim3210.46%80.3%89.1%422
Dallas Goedert225.71%42.2%31.4%511
Antonio Gates309.49%31.9%35.1%874
Nick Vannett3311.87%60.3%60%531
Cameron Brate266.33%36.1%28.2%611
Jack Doyle297.18%86.4%82.3%631

When the Steelers have to throw, Vance McDonald stands to benefit. In a negative game flow situation this past week, McDonald played 80% of the team's snaps and, per Pro Football Focus, he ran the second-most routes at tight end across the league. Even if we can't predict Pittsburgh's game script, McDonald is still a good enough option at a terrible position to play each week.

Gerald Everett got the scores in Monday night's showdown, but Tyler Higbee ran six more routes and played way more than double the amount of snaps. Higbee is probably the one you'd want to roster on this Cooper Kupp-less Rams team, not Everett.

Eric Ebron failed to receive a target in Indy's Week 11 win, while Jack Doyle played over 82% of the Colts' snaps. This is your friendly reminder that Doyle remains the tight end that you want from the Colts in fantasy football.

O.J. Howard is done for the season with an ankle injury, which allows Cameron Brate to remerge as a tight end option in fantasy. Brate played just 28% of Tampa Bay's snaps this past Sunday, but he should now step in as starter, and it's for a team that's thrown the second-most pass attempts in football this season. At the very least, you should consider him as a streamer in Week 12 in a game with an over/under of 55.

Deep Ball Passing

Player15+ Yd Att15+ Yd Att %15+ Comp %15+ % of Tot Yds15+ Yd TD %
Ben Roethlisberger6816.35%38.24%28.42%39.13%
Kirk Cousins5413.20%44.44%22.73%42.11%
Andrew Luck6115.25%49.18%29.54%24.14%
Patrick Mahomes8521.74%50.59%36.27%27.03%
Matt Ryan7218.60%45.83%28.77%27.27%
Aaron Rodgers8321.56%45.78%41.16%36.84%
Jared Goff7720.21%54.55%34.00%26.92%
Joe Flacco7018.47%34.29%25.72%16.67%
Tom Brady6818.33%41.18%29.15%29.41%
Matthew Stafford5113.86%45.10%25.99%29.41%
Eli Manning6618.13%46.97%31.44%23.08%
Case Keenum5414.92%42.59%29.10%36.36%
Derek Carr4212.00%42.86%20.36%25.00%
Andy Dalton5816.67%44.83%27.74%30.00%
Blake Bortles5215.03%36.54%23.56%33.33%
Drew Brees5416.17%62.96%33.06%24.00%
Cam Newton5717.33%40.35%21.49%25.00%
Alex Smith6118.60%32.79%25.32%20.00%
Mitchell Trubisky7824.30%37.18%36.90%30.00%
Philip Rivers6119.37%54.10%34.23%34.78%
Deshaun Watson5417.48%46.30%26.76%27.78%
Dak Prescott4514.75%42.22%25.54%27.27%
Carson Wentz5116.89%41.18%28.30%20.00%
Sam Darnold5719.72%38.60%32.06%45.45%
Baker Mayfield6422.46%42.19%33.92%30.77%
Russell Wilson5419.42%48.15%34.76%43.48%
Ryan Fitzpatrick6526.42%53.85%44.13%35.29%
Josh Rosen4419.30%40.91%33.90%33.33%
Marcus Mariota4118.98%46.34%29.19%14.29%
Brock Osweiler2815.73%35.71%22.21%16.67%
Jameis Winston3823.17%44.74%29.93%37.50%
Josh Allen3525.18%22.86%29.33%50.00%
Nick Mullens58.20%60.00%13.28%0.00%

Ryan Fitzpatrick has been slinging it down the field this year, throwing it 15-plus air yards on over 26% of his attempts. Without him under center, though, things shouldn't change much in the Bucs' offense, because Jameis Winston has tossed it deep on 23% of his throws, the fourth-highest mark among relevant quarterbacks. The biggest difference is that Fitzpatrick has completed his deep balls at a higher rate, and over 44% of his yards have come on those types of throws, whereas Winston has seen just 30% of his passing yard total stem from them. Overall, there shouldn't be much of a change -- some of those numbers were bound to regress for Fitzpatrick anyway.

As fun as the Nick Mullens story has been, Kyle Shanahan has rightfully played it conservative with the third-stringer. Mullens has chucked it deep on just 8.2% of his tosses, easily the lowest among relevant quarterbacks. That's probably the scariest part about streaming him in Week 12, and why he's merely a deep option.

After the Saints beat down the Vikings back in Week 8, fantasy managers were nervous that 2017's Drew Brees was back. Through those seven games, Brees had been throwing it deep on just 13.2% of his throws, and in that Week 8 contest, he finished as the QB30 in weekly scoring.

Over the last three weeks, though, Brees has been pretty aggressive. He's finished as a top-three fantasy quarterback in each game played, and his deep-ball rate has jumped to 24.2%. That, along with his absurd efficiency and a favorable schedule, should keep Brees in the high-end QB1 discussion through the rest of the fantasy season.

Running Back Touchdown Regression

Regression analysis doesn't always have to be so complicated. As you'd expect, there's a decent correlation between yards gained and touchdowns scored. The regression analysis in The Report looks at running back and wide receiver yards gained, shows how many touchdowns they've scored, and then finds how many touchdowns they should have scored based on trends from the last seven NFL seasons.

PlayerRush YdsTDShould HaveDifferenceRec YdsTDShould HaveDifferenceTotal Difference
Alvin Kamara617114.136.8751042.231.778.64
Todd Gurley1043136.986.0244141.932.078.09
Kareem Hunt82475.521.4837871.655.356.83
James White23041.542.4656262.463.546.00
Alex Collins41172.754.2510510.460.544.79
Melvin Gordon74174.962.0444841.962.044.08
James Conner796105.334.6741111.80-0.803.87
Javorius Allen10830.722.2819620.861.143.42
Saquon Barkley72874.872.1354032.360.642.77
Royce Freeman33252.222.782800.12-0.122.66
David Johnson62964.211.7930921.350.652.44
Ito Smith19941.332.6712600.55-0.552.12
Kapri Bibbs8420.561.448310.360.642.07
Carlos Hyde44252.962.042900.13-0.131.91
Nick Chubb57953.881.124810.210.791.91
Alex Armah1420.091.91000.000.001.91
Mark Ingram38842.601.4012010.520.481.88
Isaiah Crowell55263.692.3111100.49-0.491.82
Aaron Jones53453.571.4314110.620.381.81
Jay Ajayi18431.231.772000.09-0.091.68
LeGarrette Blount18331.221.783900.17-0.171.60
Christian McCaffrey63244.23-0.2349642.171.831.60
Latavius Murray42252.822.1813200.58-0.581.60
Tevin Coleman50023.35-1.3525141.102.901.56
Marlon Mack47143.150.857310.320.681.53
Jordan Wilkins31812.13-1.134200.18-0.18-1.31
Rashaad Penny30012.01-1.017500.33-0.33-1.34
Theo Riddick3000.20-0.2026401.15-1.15-1.36
LeSean McCoy38022.54-0.5419100.84-0.84-1.38
Alfred Morris31312.09-1.096600.29-0.29-1.38
Marcus Murphy19801.33-1.331800.08-0.08-1.40
Chris Ivory28011.87-0.8715900.70-0.70-1.57
Lamar Miller61124.09-2.0912710.560.44-1.64
Alfred Blue34312.30-1.309400.41-0.41-1.71
Bilal Powell34302.30-2.3011010.480.52-1.78
Dalvin Cook19901.33-1.3312500.55-0.55-1.88
Dion Lewis42012.81-1.8127811.22-0.22-2.03
Doug Martin33302.23-2.237900.35-0.35-2.57
Jalen Richard11800.79-0.7943201.89-1.89-2.68
Frank Gore52803.53-3.538010.350.65-2.88

After a touchdown-less Week 11 for Todd Gurley, Alvin Kamara's taken the crown as the biggest overachiever in the touchdown column. As I mention each week, elite players in good offenses are going to outperform the norm. So even with Kamara at the top of this week's list, you should feel good about him moving forward.

Alex Collins keeps breaking math, though. According to his yardage totals, he should have nearly five fewer touchdowns than he has. With his usage coming down in Week 11, his outlook through the rest of the season is borderline frightening.

Dion Lewis has only scored twice this year, when his rushing and receiving yards tell us that he should've found the end zone closer to four times. If he's going to find the end zone, it's probably going to come from outside the five-yard line. He's actually tied for third in red-zone carries across the last three games, but during this time, he has just one goal-line attempt.

Wide Receiver Touchdown Regression

PlayerRec YdsTDShould HaveDifference
Antonio Brown807114.846.16
Tyreek Hill1106116.634.37
Calvin Ridley53273.193.81
Tyler Lockett55473.323.68
Davante Adams95395.713.29
Aldrick Robinson13940.833.17
John Ross14540.873.13
Anthony Miller35752.142.86
Chris Conley22341.342.66
Mike Williams39452.362.64
Cooper Kupp56663.392.61
Jaron Brown8330.502.50
T.Y. Hilton58563.512.49
DeAndre Hopkins95085.702.30
David Moore31041.862.14
Kenny Stills32641.952.05
Marquise Goodwin33942.031.97
Marvin Jones50853.051.95
Josh Reynolds17831.071.93
Curtis Samuel17931.071.93
Tyrell Williams51953.111.89
AJ Green68764.121.88
Tre'Quan Smith37142.221.78
Michael Thomas104286.251.75
Keelan Cole37512.25-1.25
Devante Parker22501.35-1.35
Jermaine Kearse23101.39-1.39
Robert Woods90445.42-1.42
Emmanuel Sanders76334.58-1.58
Martavis Bryant26601.60-1.60
Jarvis Landry60023.60-1.60
Corey Davis60623.63-1.63
Keenan Allen77634.65-1.65
Nelson Agholor45512.73-1.73
Danny Amendola45612.73-1.73
Maurice Harris29101.75-1.75
Willie Snead49912.99-1.99
JuJu Smith-Schuster86635.19-2.19
Brandin Cooks96435.78-2.78
Julio Jones115836.94-3.94

If there was a market for John Ross, he'd be an easy sell candidate. He has four scores on just 145 receiving yards, and A.J. Green could return from injury soon. It'd be shocking if Ross kept this up.

One player you should continue to look to buy is JuJu Smith-Schuster. He's only scored three times this year, which is low for his 866 receiving yards. What's really weird about it is that he leads the NFL red-zone targets. With a great fantasy football playoff schedule, you should want JuJu on your roster.

Hey, Julio Jones scored again.