DraftKings Daily Fantasy Football Helper: Week 10
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This week's main slate contains 11 games and is headlined by several very strong plays at the running back position. However, most look like lopsided affairs, which could reduce the number of touches needed to put the competition away. Pricing is also much tighter as injuries and player transactions had very little impact on the slate late in the week.
Aaron Rodgers ($6,400): It sure looks like a good time to play a little bit of Aaron Rodgers in tournaments. Coming off a pair of mediocre performances in road games against high-profile opponents, Rodgers has now failed to crack 20 DraftKings points in five of his eight starts. Rodgers returns to Lambeau Field to face a Miami Dolphins pass defense that is seventh-worst by numberFire's schedule-adjusted metrics and allows 7.9 yards per pass completion, which is bottom five in the league. Yet Rodgers could go lower-owned. Not only has Rodgers underwhelmed in recent weeks, but he's second in quarterback salary and Miami currently ranks fourth in limiting DraftKings points to opposing quarterbacks. However, Davante Adams ($7,800) carries our highest projection at wide receiver, and Rodgers is just outside the top-five quarterbacks. A far more affordable partner to stack with Rodgers is Marquez Valdes-Scantling ($5,000), who is emerging as the second option in the receiver corp now that Geronimo Allison has been placed on injured reserve and Randall Cobb has played fewer snaps than MVS since returning from a multi-week absence.
Philip Rivers ($6,000): A popular option in the cash games this week is likely to be Jared Goff ($6,100) as he continues to produce while seeing very little movement in his price. A great pivot to make in GPPs at a nearly identical price is Philip Rivers, who is plenty viable in cash, as well. Even though he's yet to flash a monster ceiling, Rivers is the only quarterback who has thrown multiple touchdowns in every game this season. Perhaps more importantly, he draws a sweet matchup on the road against a pathetic Oakland Raiders defense. These are same Raiders that allowed Nick Mullens -- a total unknown -- to complete 16 of 22 passes for 262 yards and 3 touchdowns in his NFL debut. Oakland has now allowed three passing touchdowns in three consecutive games while yielding multiple touchdown passes in six straight. Additionally, Oakland's whopping 8.9 yards given up per pass attempt is easily the worst in league. Our projections place Rivers inside the top five at the position, and he's a top value given the reduced price tag.
Marcus Mariota ($4,700): Coming off a bye week, Marcus Mariota dropped his second-best game of the season -- 21 of 29, 240 passing yards and 2 scores plus 32 rushing yards and another touchdown -- on the road against the Dallas Cowboys. Mariota has now rushed for 25 or more yards in three consecutive games and five of his last six. The New England Patriots are one of only three defenses to face more than 40 rush attempts by quarterbacks while Deshaun Watson, Blake Bortles, and Mitchell Trubisky account for half of those attempts. The Tennessee Titans will be at home, but they are underdogs by nearly a touchdown. After averaging 30.5 pass attempts over his last two games, Mariota and the other pieces of this underpriced Titans offense should be chasing for much of this contest.
Kareem Hunt ($8,500): All the boxes are checked for Kareem Hunt this week. He's a massive home favorite for a Kansas City Chiefs team that has the highest implied total on the main slate. The opposing Arizona Cardinals have a run defense that is middle of the pack by our metrics but has faced a league-high 236 rushing attempts by running backs. That's particularly embarrassing given Arizona was off last week while the next three teams on the list have not had a bye week. Perhaps the only issue playing Hunt this week is a fear that Arizona's offense continues to struggle despite a change at offensive coordinator and a week off to regroup. In terms of snap percentage, however, Hunt is coming off his two most active games of the season. Hunt has scored a touchdown in eight straight games, including five as a pass catcher over the last four. Our projections have Hunt second to only Todd Gurley in DraftKings points at running back this week. While the pair can be jammed into cash-game lineups, Hunt is also a great tournament option given how ownership should be spread out across a number of strong running back options, which also includes Melvin Gordon ($9,000) and Alvin Kamara ($8,700).
Aaron Jones ($5,000): As a double-digit favorite at home, Aaron Jones -- who's coming off a game in which he set season-high marks in both carries (14) and targets (4) -- will face the Dolphins, who lead the league in rushing yards allowed to running backs. And Miami hasn't exactly faced a murderers' row of opposing backs. Over their last six games, they've been exploited by the likes of Lamar Miller (133 yards), Kerryon Johnson (158 yards), and Sony Michel (112 yards). As for Jones, he's compiled more than 80 yards of offense in half of his games thus far and could see an extremely favorable game script in this one. Our projections have Jones seeing slightly more than a dozen touches and view him as a top-three running back value based on this cheap price tag.
Duke Johnson ($4,700): Perhaps the only thing that will keep Duke Johnson from seeing a lot ownership this week is Dion Lewis ($4,600), who costs slightly less yet projects to see more touches, especially as a rusher. There's also Jordan Howard at home against a bad Detroit Lions defense at the same price. Last week, Johnson didn't see an uptick in snap percentage, but he finally got usage as a receiver in the passing game following a long overdue shakeup of the coaching staff. Facing the Chiefs, Johnson registered just one carry but caught all nine of his targets -- double what he saw in nearly every other game this season -- for 78 yards and 2 touchdowns. Johnson remains at home to face the Atlanta Falcons, who once again lead the league in targets, receptions, and receiving yards allowed to running backs -- by comfortable margins -- despite already having a bye week.
Tyler Boyd ($7,500): Since breaking out in Week 2, Tyler Boyd is averaging 8.7 targets, 6.6 receptions, and 84.9 yards per game while scoring 5 touchdowns in seven contests. A.J. Green's toe injury occurred in Week 8, so DraftKings was able to price Boyd appropriately for this juicy matchup against the New Orleans Saints, who are bottom five in our pass defense metrics. While Boyd isn't a terrific value, it's easy to justify the increased price tag as the top receiver for the Cincinnati Bengals at home in a game with the slate's biggest over/under. Over the last three weeks, New Orleans has seen four wide receivers exceed 100 yards against them while seven have gone past 65 yards. Clearly, Boyd will be a popular play in all formats and is looking very difficult to fade in cash games.
Corey Davis ($4,500): As a rookie, Corey Davis battled through a hamstring issue and never found the end zone until the playoffs, when he posted 8 targets, 5 receptions, 63 yards, and 2 touchdowns in the Divisional Round against this week's the opponent, the Patriots. According to the game charting done by PlayerProfiler, Davis is third in target share (30 percent) and eighth in red-zone target share, but he's first in dropped passes. New England has done a good job against wide receivers this season given that they are one of only four defenses to see 200 or more targets thus far. Davis is also likely to see a lot of cornerback Stephon Gilmore, who ranks fifth by PlayerProfiler at the position. Volume makes Davis a very attractive tournament option given the price, but he'll need to overcome a tricky matchup.
Maurice Harris ($3,900): Up until last week, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers saw at least one wide receiver exceed 75 yards against them in each game they had played. Meanwhile, Maurice Harris is coming off a career game in which he caught 10 of 12 targets for 124 yards. Harris has been playing in the slot since Week 5 and could remain there if Jamison Crowder (ankle) is still unable to go. Even if Crowder plays, Harris should continue to see plenty of snaps after Paul Richardson (shoulder) was placed on injured reserve. In the same game, Adam Humphries is available at the exact same price. That gives DFS managers a lot of flexibility as Crowder's return would likely take Harris out of cash consideration while still being worthy of a tournament filer.
Austin Hooper ($3,800): One of the most interesting value plays on the slate this week is Austin Hooper. While his targets have fluctuated, PlayerProfiler has credited Hooper with 25 or more pass routes run in six consecutive games. Meanwhile, the Cleveland Browns continue to concede generous numbers to tight ends and are tied for the most targets allowed to the position. Over the last three games, Cleveland saw nine targets go to both O.J. Howard and Travis Kelce. Earlier in the year, Jared Cook caught 8 passes on 13 targets for 110 yards. While Hooper is unlikely to get double-digit targets, it is something he's done twice this season. Since that last happened back in Week 6, Hooper has been targeted a total of seven times across two games while exceeding 40 yards in each contest, so he provides a respectable floor for cash games.
Chris Herndon ($3,100): Very little has gone right for the New York Jets this season. However, they may have found something in rookie tight end Chris Herndon, the team's fourth-round selection out of Miami. At 6'4" and 253 pounds, Herndon is built for usage on all downs and has seen his snap rate climb as Neal Sterling continues to miss time with a concussion. In addition to scoring three touchdowns over the last four games, Herndon's average depth of target (aDOT) of 11.6 is third among all tight ends who have registered more than 20 targets, according to airyards.com.
Green Bay D/ST ($3,100): If you aren't able to pay up for the Jets ($3,400), who are facing a hapless Buffalo Bills offense, the Green Bay Packers are a very good pivot option that offers modest savings. In addition to playing at home as double-digit favorites, Green Bay is eighth is hurry rate and ninth in sack rate. On the flip side, the Dolphins are inside the top 10 when it comes to allowing both hurries and sacks. Over his last three starts, Brock Osweiler has only thrown one interception but has been sacked a total of 10 times.
Tampa Bay D/ST ($2,000): Based on our projections, the Bucs' defense is the top value among the D/STs on the main slate. While there's very little to get excited about outside of the rock-bottom price, Tampa is a slight home favorite and will allow you to a lot of roster flexibility. Alex Smith has thrown only three interceptions in eight games, but he has taken three sacks on five different occasions. While it's better to chase interceptions and sacks when selecting a fantasy defense, there's a small degree of comfort knowing that the battered Washington offense is 25th in points scored per game and will be without multiple starters along their offensive line.
Eric McClung is not a FanDuel employee. The views expressed in his articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.