Week 9 NFL FanDuel Salary Movers
Things can change quickly in fantasy football. To quote Ferris Bueller, "Life moves pretty fast. If you don't stop and look around once in a while, you could miss it."
We're here to "look around" and make sure we don't miss any week-to-week salary changes that could pay dividends on FanDuel.
Maybe a player had an outlier performance and saw their salary rise too high, making them a sub-optimal play. Perhaps a player saw an increase in their role but played on Monday night after salaries for the following week's slate already came out, and therefore they haven't been priced accordingly.
This week's article will take a look at which players salaries have changed the most from Week 8 to Week 9 and dig into why those moves happened.
Now that you're ready, let's get to it!
Ryan Fitzpatrick, QB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Week 8 Salary: $6,000
Week 9 Salary: $7,100
The beard is back! Ryan Fitzpatrick replaced an ineffective Jameis Winston after his fourth interception Sunday against the Cincinnati Bengals. Trailing 34-16 entering the fourth quarter, Fitzpatrick led the Bucs on three scoring drives, capped off by a two-point conversion pass to Chris Godwin to tie the game at 34. The Bengals would kick a field goal as time expired to win, but the difference between the two Tampa quarterbacks was pronounced. In just under two quarters of work, Fitzpatrick completed 11 of 15 passes for 194 yards and two touchdowns for 19.56 FanDuel points.
He was named the starter for this weeks' game on the road at the Carolina Panthers, where the Bucs are six point underdogs in a game with an over/under of 55, second-highest on the main slate. In terms of Passing Net Expected Points (NEP), Fitz ranks seventh at 67.72. It's fair to bring up sample size with him but Fitzpatrick actually has more dropbacks on the season than Cam Newton. The salary increase of $1,100 is warranted given the plethora of receiving options in Mike Evan, Chris Godwin, and O.J. Howard. The matchup isn't bad, either, as the Panthers are 20th in total defense and 18th against the pass in numberFire's rankings.
At just $7,100, Fitzpatrick has the eight-highest FanDuel projection at quarterback with 20 points and is a worth your consideration in all formats this week.
Other Big Movers:
Christian McCaffrey, RB, Carolina Panthers
Week 8 Salary: $7,300
Week 9 Salary: $7,900
Christian McCaffrey scored his first rushing touchdown of the season Sunday against the Baltimore Ravens, adding a short receiving touchdown he caught off of a tipped pass. Despite his reduced price of $7,300, Run CMC's ownership in the FanDuel Sunday Million was less than five percent. We can blame that largely on the opponent, as the Ravens rank sixth in rushing defense, but McCaffrey's 19.6 FanDuel points were his most since week 3.
He enters week 9 with the seventh-highest running back salary on the main slate, $100 less than Alvin Kamara and James Conner. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have been torched though the air, allowing an average of 318 yards per game to opposing offenses. They are ninth against the run in numberFire's rankings, but McCaffrey's usage as a receiver is what elevates both his floor and ceiling. He leads the Panthers in targets (52) and receptions (44), while commanding the highest target share at 22 percent per airyards.com.
The Panthers have the highest implied team total on the slate at 30.50, tied with the Los Angeles Rams. If you don't pay up for Cam Newton at quarterback, McCaffrey is the next logical choice as you'll want a piece of the offense with such a high total. His projection of 18.3 FanDuel points is third on the slate at running back behind only Kamara and Todd Gurley.
Other Big Movers:
DeVante Parker, WR, Miami Dolphins
Week 8 Salary: $4,700
Week 9 Salary: $5,800
The Miami Dolphins played the Houston Texans last Thursday, and due to injuries at wide receiver to Albert Wilson and Kenny Stills, DeVante Parker got the start. He made the most of his opportunity, playing every snap and catching six of nine targets for 134 yards and 16.4 FanDuel points. One was a 46-yarder that careened off Jakeem Grant, but hey, sometimes you need a fortuitous bounce to break out of your slump.
Parker received the biggest percentage increase in salary this week at 23.40 percent and matches Ryan Fitzpatrick's adjustment of $1,100. $5,800 is a reasonable price for a wide receiver playing every snap, and Kenny Stills missed practice both Wednesday and Thursday and is trending to be inactive again this week. We're going to need value plays to fit in pieces of the Rams and New Orleans Saints, but Parker is one you can avoid this week. The New York Jets defense ranks in the top ten in total defense, rushing defense, and passing defense. On offense, the Jets are 30th in situation neutral pace per Football Outsiders and the over/under for this one is only 44, second lowest on the slate.
Other Big Movers:
David Njoku, TE, Cleveland Browns
Week 8 Salary: $5,700
Week 9 Salary: $5,200
A famous quote often gets misattributed to Albert Einstein. I'm referencing "Insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results." At $5,700 last week, David Njoku was a popular play against the Pittsburgh Steelers coming off back-to-back games with at least ten targets. He was the the highest owned tight end in the Sunday Million and scored the same number of fantasy points I did, zero. He failed to even record a target despite playing 82 percent of the snaps and that goose egg has dropped his salary $500 down to $5,200 this week, lower than Chris Herndon, Benjamin Watson, and Vance McDonald.
Even with head coach Hue Jackson and offensive coordinator Todd Haley getting fired this week, I'll plead the insanity defense and go back to Njoku. The Kansas City Chiefs ranks 26th in total defense and 15th versus the pass. Using our advanced stats, the matchup appears better for Njoku as the Chiefs are just 26th against tight ends.
The position can be brutal to fill on a normal week, much less one with six teams on a bye. We should avoid the recency bias and consider Njoku again, as his projection of 9.70 FanDuel points trials only Travis Kelce on the slate.
Other Big Movers:
Ryan Bobbitt is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Ryan Bobbitt also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username Drummerinabox. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his/her personal views, he/she may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his/her personal account. The views expressed in his/her articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.