NFL

3 Player Prop Bets to Target in Week 8

Matthew Gajewski  —  @Matt_Gajewski Oct 27th, 2018
Our models see value in JuJu Smith-Schuster's posted yardage total. Which other prop bets can you exploit this week?

The NFL season has almost reached the halfway point. Most teams have developed their identity at this point, but injuries and matchups present situations for football enthusiasts to capitalize on. With FanDuel's new sportsbook, fans can wager on a variety of outcomes, including player prop bets.

Here are a few player props that stick out ahead of Week 8.

Andrew Luck Over 270.5 Passing Yards -102

A $100 bet on Andrew Luck eclipsing 270.5 passing yards nets $98 against a lowly Oakland Raiders defense. Luck already has four games with more than 300 yards under his belt this season, and he has averaged just over 48 pass attempts in contests excluding the game versus the Buffalo Bills, who the Indianapolis Colts mauled 37-5.

Vegas believes this Raiders will keep this game close, favoring the Colts by only 3.0 points. Bookmakers also see these two teams scoring a lot of points, with a 50.5-point over/under. Our models also project a close score of 23.98 to 22.86. This indicates that the contest should remain competitive throughout, allowing Luck's pass attempts to move back toward his season average.

Luck also faces a poor Raiders pass D, one that ranks 29th against the pass, per our schedule-adjusted metrics. The Raiders have already benched starting corners Rashaan Melvin and former first-rounder Gareon Conley as John Gruden continues to purge his roster of talent. Our projections slate Andrew Luck for 321. 65 passing yards, giving him a full 50 yards of value on this prop. Arguably the best value on the slate, lock in Luck for more 270.5 passing yards.

Todd Gurley Over 82.5 Rushing Yards -102

Another prop bet with immense value, a $100 bet on Todd Gurley besting 82.5 rushing yards nets $98. Leading the league in rushing with 682 yards, Gurley and the Los Angeles Rams take on the struggling Green Bay Packers in LA. Missing Muhammad Wilkerson, the Packers rank 25th in rush defense by our schedule-adjusted metrics.

Bookmakers project this to be the highest-scoring game of the week, giving it a 56.5-point over/under. Playing at home and favored by 9.5 points, Gurley should see ample rushing attempts as the Rams go to work against this soft Green Bay front.

With the Packers allowing 98.5 rushing yards per game to opposing backs, our projections have Gurley going for 116.76 rushing yards, easily the most of the week. This gives Gurley almost 25 yards of value, a massive number at the running back position. With bookmakers slow to adjust to Gurley's Ladainian Tomlinson-esque workload, his player props should be smashed on a weekly basis.

JuJu Smith-Schuster Over 75.5 Receiving Yards -102

For our final prop bet this week, we go to JuJu Smith-Schuster. Playing in the shadows of Antonio Brown, Smith-Schuster quietly has 100 yards or a touchdown in all but one game this season. A $100 bet on him eclipsing 75.5 receiving yards against the Cleveland Browns nets $98.

The Browns have played well very defensively and actually rank first in pass defense, according to our metrics. However, stud corner Denzel Ward projects to follow Brown and secondary corners E.J. Gaines and Terrance Mitchell will both miss Week 8, opening the door for Smith-Schuster to feast. Playing in the slot, JuJu roasted the Browns earlier this season for 119 yards.

We currently project him for 81.16 receiving yards, a modest 5 yards above his prop. However, as we have seen throughout the year, Smith-Schuster is capable of blowing up on any given week. With the Pittsburgh Steelers playing at home, the over on JuJu's 75.5 receiving yards can be taken confidently.