5 NFL FanDuel Stacks for Week 16
If you're new to daily fantasy football, then you'll have to make some changes to your fantasy football strategy. You don't have "your guys" on a weekly basis -- and you need to adjust to each and every matchup.
A big part of building your roster is weekly quarterback selection. In terms of salary, passers range from the top of the player pool to the bottom, with some replacement-level passers at the same price point as kickers and defenses on FanDuel.
Along with those quarterbacks, though, you have the option of pairing pass-catchers with your signal caller, and per 4for4's Chris Raybon, a quarterback's top receiver has the strongest positive correlation to quarterback success -- and his tight end and second receiver are next in line.
If you're going to stack, though, you need to have a purpose. If you're trying to win a big tournament, you'll want to find a combination that can put up points in bunches -- all while possibly being underowned. Which teammates might fit the bill in Week 16 on FanDuel's main slate, which excludes the Saturday and Monday games?
New Orleans Saints
Brees' ceiling has been capped this season, and that makes him a difficult option to love in tournaments because you need access to upside if you want to place at the top of the leaderboard. He's averaged 17.55 FanDuel points per game over his past five and now faces an Atlanta Falcons team that's just 14th against the pass -- based on our schedule- adjusted metrics -- since Week 8. The game has a week-high over/under of 52.5 points, but Brees isn't getting too much buzz on FanShareSports.
Kamara gets a matchup against a Falcons defense that has faced the most targets to running backs this season, and in their Week 14 tilt, he had three catches and a carry on just six snaps before exiting with a concussion. He returned last week to see a career-high 18 touches on 47% of the New Orleans Saints' snaps. He's clearly ready to rock, and the matchup is pretty much perfect for stacking a quarterback with a running back.
Los Angeles Chargers
Rivers tanked on Saturday night, which should depress his ownership naturally. He will face the New York Jets in a must-win game for the Los Angeles Chargers. The Jets are a pass-funnel defense, as they rank 2nd against the rush and 20th against the pass since Week 8. Prior to his 10.08-point dud last week, Rivers had averaged more than 20 FanDuel points per game over five games.
Allen has cooled off, in a way, with consecutive eight-target games. He caught 5 for 54 last week, and people may not want to spend up on him after that dud. Since Week 8, the Jets have allowed 1.42 receiving FanDuel points per target to wide receivers, 22nd-most in the league. Since their Week 9 bye, Allen has accounted for 29% of the team's targets and 32% of their air yards, per AirYards.com. Hunter Henry is now on injured reserve, and that should give Allen even a larger piece of the pie over the middle of the field this week.
Los Angeles Rams
Goff has been matchup-dependent this season, but that works in our favor this week against the Tennessee Titans. Goff has averaged 22.6 FanDuel points per game against bottom-half pass defenses this season. Tennessee is 26th against the pass since Week 8 and 1st against the rush. So, not only should Goff be able to torch the Titans, but the matchup could also force Goff and the Rams to pepper Todd Gurley out of the backfield, which certainly helps Goff's day-end stat line.
Since their bye and looking only at games in which Woods was active, Woods has accounted for a 28% market share and a 34% air yards market share. Compare that to Keenan Allen's rates above (29% and 32%, respectively). That's not at all to compare them based on talent, but Woods' role is greater than his $6,600 price tag suggests. In his return last week, Woods played 73% of snaps (in line with his rates the four prior games) and drew 7 of Goff's 21 attempts.
Kansas City Chiefs
The go-to tight end stack this week looks like it'll be either Cam Newton ($8,300) and Greg Olsen ($6,600) -- or possibly Tom Brady ($8,600) and Rob Gronkowski ($8,400) -- so that's why we aren't looking there. We want to find high-upside stacks but not the most obvious ones (unless you're playing smaller leagues or tournaments). Anyway, Smith's luster has worn off by now, and eyes are on Kareem Hunt in the backfield.
Smith, though, faces a Miami Dolphins defense that's just 16th against the pass since Week 8, by our metrics, as well as 22nd in passing FanDuel points per attempt allowed. Full disclosure: they're 28th against the rush, and the Kansas City Chiefs are 10.5-point favorites. Hunt is a strong play in his own right. But the Dolphins have allowed 19.9-plus FanDuel points to four of the past six quarterbacks they've faced.
Kelce, too, could go lower owned than he should here, with attention on Olsen, Gronkowski, and Hunt. Kelce put up just 7.6 FanDuel points last week (6 catches and 46 yards). He's scored fewer than 7.0 FanDuel points four other times this season. In the four follow-up games, he's averaged 18.98 FanDuel points. And since Week 8, Miami ranks 28th in receiving FanDuel points per target to tight ends.
Stafford has averaged 17.99 FanDuel points per game since Detroit's Week 7 bye. The Cincinnati Bengals have allowed 18.28 per game to quarterbacks since their Week 6 bye. Cincy ranks 23rd against the pass since Week 8, too, and 26th in overall defense in that span. The Lions are 4.5-point favorites with an implied total of 24 points. That should be enough to keep Stafford on the shortlist.
As for the stack partners, that's where things get tricky. Jones has the revenge game narrative against his former team. Marv's market share is just 20% since their bye, but he's getting high-leverage looks (39% of the team's air yards in that span). The Bengals have given up usable games to above-average wideouts lately (Stefon Diggs had 12.2 FanDuel points in Week 15, even Kendall Wright had 15.7 in Week 14, Antonio Brown had 20.1 in Week 13, Demaryius Thomas had 14.9 in Week 11).
Tate has a good matchup in the slot (see: Wright in Week 14). Tate has a 21% market share since their bye and could wind up being the primary way the Lions move the ball against the Bengals this week.