5 NFL FanDuel Stacks for Week 3
If you're new to daily fantasy football, then you'll have to make some changes to your fantasy football strategy. You don't have "your guys" on a weekly basis -- and you need to adjust to each and every matchup.
A big part of building your roster is weekly quarterback selection. In terms of salary, passers range from the top of the player pool to the bottom, with some replacement-level passers at the same price point as kickers and defenses on FanDuel.
Along with those quarterbacks, though, you have the option of pairing pass-catchers with your signal caller, and per 4for4's Chris Raybon, a quarterback's top receiver has the strongest positive correlation to quarterback success -- and his tight end and second receiver are next in line.
If you're going to stack, though, you need to have a purpose. If you're trying to win a big tournament, you'll want to find a combination that can put up points in bunches -- all while possibly being underowned. Which teammates might fit the bill in Week 3 on FanDuel's main slate, which excludes the Thursday and Monday games?
The Oakland Raiders have the second-highest implied total of the week at 28.5 points and face a Washington defense that ranks 26th against the pass by our Net Expected Points (NEP) metric. Washington ranks 21st in sack rate, and the Raiders are 4th offensively. Washington is actually fifth in quarterback hit rate, but Oakland is first there. Either way, Carr should be able to move the ball through the air against a team that has given up the ninth-most passing-generated FanDuel points per passing attempt so far this season.
The Amari Cooper or Michael Crabtree debate comes to a head, as both are $7,700 on FanDuel this week. That's never happened before, even during Cooper's rookie season in 2015. Cooper had four targets from inside the 10 in Week 1 but no red zone targets in Week 2. Crabtree had zero and two, respectively. Crabtree, however, has almost been out-snapped by Seth Roberts both weeks. Crabtree has played 73% and 61% of Oakland's snaps so far; Roberts has played 84% and 60%. Meanwhile, Cooper (92% and 84%) has led both weeks comfortably.
Josh Norman hasn't been shadowing top receivers this season, and even then, who really is the top receiver for Oakland? Both players should have opportunities against Bashaud Breeland, and frankly, Cooper's edge in snap rate and target market share (30.0%) over Crabtree (21.7%) makes him a safer pairing while others chase Crabtree's three touchdowns from last week. The only concern is whether or not Carr goes back to Cooper in the red zone in Week 3 in a game with the highest over/under of the week (54 points).
Let's stick with this Sunday Night game, shall we? Oakland is 24th in quarterback hit rate, so that should help Cousins stay upright (Washington is 20th offensively). Oakland is 20th in Adjusted Defensive Passing NEP per play, as well,. Basically, this should serve as a team-wide get-right spot for Washington's passing offense.
At home against a leaky Philadelphia Eagles secondary in Week 1, Pryor had 11 targets, 6 catches, and 66 yards, but of his 11 targets, 3 traveled at least 16 yards in the air, 2 were in the red zone, and 2 were in the end zone. He just missed out on a pretty big day. On the road against a tougher defense that just got Aaron Donald back in action in Week 2, Pryor drew a mere four targets, and Cousins' deep attempts were cut from seven to one.
Pryor's results have not been there yet, and perhaps that'll continue on, but if you're looking for a tournament play (and we are, here) Pryor against the Raiders is a pretty stellar option, considering his price actually increased $100 after a two-catch game.
Parker's season-long upside is tough to love considering Miami's pace (though they're 16th in situation-neutral pace after one game), but against the New York Jets this week, it doesn't matter. The Jets are 31st in pass defense by our metrics and 30th in quarterback hit rate. Plus, they're third in passing-only FanDuel points per attempt allowed to quarterbacks and first in FanDuel points per target allowed to receivers. Sign me up.
We have just one week of data for the Dolphins, but Parker led the position in snaps (barely) with 63, compared to 62 for Jarvis Landry and 60 for Kenny Stills. Parker had 9 targets to 15 for Landry and 5 for Stills, but 5 of Parker's targets were at least 16 yards downfield. Stills had three such looks, and Landry had none (but did have three red zone targets).
Landry might have more value than initially expected, considering his quarterback, but Parker has the upside based on his touchdown ability. He fits the mold of Michael Crabtree, who did a lot of damage on just 6 targets, and his 4 catches look weak compared to Landry's 13. Hopefully the ownership is held in check, especially with Jay Ajayi in a great spot to be a popular DFS pick.
Newton's fantasy point totals haven't been up to par (14.14 and 11.82), but a matchup against the New Orleans Saints sure should help. The Saints have allowed the second-most passing FanDuel points per attempt to quarterbacks and the second-most FanDuel points per target to receivers. New Orleans also, unsurprisingly, is 32nd in pass defense by our metrics. If Newton can't produce in this spot, well, then we can revisit him moving forward.
Funchess is the receiver of choice to pair him with, if you're asking me.
Quarterbacks on throws 16+ yards downfield against the Saints this year: 15 of 16 for 413 yards, 4 TDs, 0 INTs.
— Jim Sannes (@JimSannes) September 17, 2017
Guess what? Five of Funchess' seven targets last week traveled at least 16 yards downfield; one was a red zone target. Oh, and he outsnapped Kelvin Benjamin 57 to 43 in Week 2. Funchess, a converted tight end, should have a large role while the Carolina Panthers try to fill the void without Greg Olsen, who is out with a broken foot.
Corey Coleman is out with a broken hand, and that certainly dings the offense, but the recipe to overcome it is a matchup with a terrible defense, which is what we have this week for the Browns. The Colts are 28th in pass defense through two games, per our metrics, and they're fourth in passing FanDuel points per attempt allowed. Cornerback Vontae Davis did return to practice Wednesday in a limited capacity, so keep an eye on that aspect. That won't impact Higgins, who is a slot receiver, but it could cap Kizer's final stat line.
As for Kizer, he has thrown 19 of his 61 attempts at least 16 yards downfield. Higgins had three deep targets in Week 2 as well as a target from inside the 10. In all, he had 11 targets on 76% of the team's snaps. That made him one of just eight receivers to play at least 40% of snaps and get a target on 20% of his plays. At $5,100 and against -- potentially -- a defense that's still without Davis, you could do much worse.
Kizer's rushing upside has given him near 20-point upside (19.58 FanDuel points in Week 1). You don't need much from Higgins to pay off his salary, and this combination -- as road favorites -- should be able to produce enough to come close to hitting value.