5 Daily Fantasy Football Matchups to Exploit in Week 15
San Diego Chargers Passing Offense
The San Diego Chargers' passing offense has being nothing short of vomit-worthy ever since injuries started to eviscerate their entire team. They've been giving up sacks left and right, and Philip Rivers is throwing the ball to dudes whose names I'm not entirely positive are real. So why in the world would this make any sense in DFS for Week 15?
Unfortunately for Rivers, the decimation of his receiving corps happened to coincide with a rough stretch in the team's schedule. Over their past five games, they have faced the top-ranked pass defense according to numberFire's metrics (the Denver Broncos) once and the fourth-ranked team (Kansas City Chiefs) twice. The two other games came against the 21st-ranked Bears and 23rd-ranked Jacksonville Jaguars. There was a clear split in Rivers' production based on opponent.
In the three games against the Chiefs and the Broncos, Rivers posted -19.83 Passing NEP on his 108 drop backs, equating to -0.18 Passing NEP per drop back. That's Nick Foles-level of suckitude.
Things flipped pretty drastically in the two easier matchups. In those, he converted his 85 drop backs into 19.85 Passing NEP, or 0.23 Passing NEP per drop back. That would put him just above Cam Newton if the number translated to the whole season. When everyone was healthy earlier in the year, he was one of the most efficient passers in the league. He's certainly not that any more, but he can still put forth solid performances if the matchup is right.
That would appear to be the case this week, as Rivers will face the Miami Dolphins, who rank 31st in Adjusted Defensive Passing NEP per play. Over the past three weeks, they have allowed both Eli Manning and Ryan Fitzpatrick to carve them up for a total of 56.5 points on FanDuel between the two of them. It would seem a stretch to say that Rivers could come near their output, but he really doesn't need to at a price of $7,400 on FanDuel and $5,500 on DraftKings.
My thoughts on Rivers are heavily dependent on the statuses of Dontrelle Inman and Stevie Johnson. Both returned to practice on Wednesday after missing Week 14. If they can't go, I really can't stomach Rivers. But if they're both up and active, then I think it would be wise to get some exposure to Rivers in your tournament lineups.
Moreso than Rivers, I'm very interested in Antonio Gates this week. His pricing has gone down to $5,800 on FanDuel and $4,600 on DraftKings with the offense's drop in efficiency, but he has still seen 7.67 targets per game over his past three games and 8.63 for the season. Against a defense like this, the Chargers should be able to produce a few trips to the red zone, and then Gates can do the work from there.
Finally, if Inman is able to play, I really don't mind him at all if you need to find a punt at wide receiver. In the game before his concussion, he saw nine targets and played every single one of the team's offensive snaps. He's only going to set you back $5,000 on FanDuel and $3,000 on DraftKings, so if he's practicing in full by the end of the week, he brings enough upside to warrant a spot on your roster.
